Prelims

Half Title Page

Beyond the Pandemic?

Title Page

Beyond the Pandemic? Exploring the Impact of COVID-19 on Telecommunications and the Internet

Edited by

JASON WHALLEY

Northumbria University, UK

VOLKER STOCKER

Weizenbaum Institute for the Networked Society, Technische Universität Berlin, Germany

and

WILLIAM LEHR

MIT, USA

United Kingdom – North America – Japan – India – Malaysia – China

Copyright Page

Emerald Publishing Limited

Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley BD16 1WA, UK

First edition 2023

Editorial matter and selection © 2023 Jason Whalley, Volker Stocker and William Lehr.

Individual chapters © 2023 the authors.

Published under exclusive licence by Emerald Publishing Limited.

Chapter 2. Covid-19 and the Internet: Lessons Learned, copyright © Volker Stocker, William Lehr, and Georgios Smaragdakis. Published by Emerald Publishing Limited. This chapter is published under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) licence. Anyone may reproduce, distribute, translate and create derivative works of this chapter (for both commercial and non-commercial purposes), subject to full attribution to the original publication and authors. The full terms of this licence may be seen at http://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode.

Reprints and permissions service

Contact: permissions@emeraldinsight.com

No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without either the prior written permission of the publisher or a licence permitting restricted copying issued in the UK by The Copyright Licensing Agency and in the USA by The Copyright Clearance Center. Any opinions expressed in the chapters are those of the authors. Whilst Emerald makes every effort to ensure the quality and accuracy of its content, Emerald makes no representation implied or otherwise, as to the chapters’ suitability and application and disclaims any warranties, express or implied, to their use.

British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data

A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN: 978-1-80262-050-4 (Print)

ISBN: 978-1-80262-049-8 (Online)

ISBN: 978-1-80262-051-1 (Epub)

Contents

List of Figures and Tables

List of Abbreviations

About the Authors

Roxana Barrantes is currently a Principal Professor of the Department of Economics, Director of the Master of Economics, President of the Board of Directors of the School of Government and Public Policies, as well as a Member of the Advisory Board of the University Ombudsman’s Office, of the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru, and Principal Investigator of the Institute of Peruvian Studies (IEP). Professional, teaching, and research activity developed in applied microeconomics in the areas of (a) regulation and privatisation of the infrastructure sectors; (b) appropriation and use of information and communication technologies; and (c) environment and natural resources. Professional experience as an advisor, consultant, and director of regulatory bodies (OSIPTEL, OSITRAN, SUNASS).

David Cox is Chairman of CANTO and Head of Regulatory Affairs for the Caribbean Cable & Wireless Communications (CWC). He is a British-trained attorney who joined Cable & Wireless Communications (CWC) in September 2013 where he currently serves as Head of Regulatory Affairs for the Caribbean. In this role, he manages a team of professionals who together, ensure compliance with CWC’s regulatory obligations and execution of its regulatory strategy across several Caribbean states. After serving as Vice President for most of 2018, he was elected to the position of Chairman of CANTO in January 2019. Under his leadership, CANTO has become the premier forum for diverse, inclusive discussion of ICT Development issues, with a focus on the Caribbean and Latin America.

Peter Curwen joined Sheffield Hallam University in 1970. He took early retirement in 2002 having risen to the position of Professor of Economics. Having switched his research interests from public enterprise and privatisation in 1998, he then took up the post of Visiting Professor of Mobile Communications, first at Strathclyde University and subsequently the Newcastle Business School, finally retiring in 2017 to become a ‘Gentleman Scholar’. The latest of his 200 or so publications on the mobile industry since 2002, many co-authored by Jason Whalley, is ‘Understanding 5G Mobile Networks’, published by Emerald books.

Mohamed El-Moghazi is the Executive Director of National Spectrum Affairs at the NTRA of Egypt, Chairman of the Arab Spectrum Management Group WP 1, and Vice-Chairman the preparatory meeting for the World Radiocommunication Conference 2023. He is a holder of a PhD in Electrical and Electronic Engineering and an MSc in Telecommunications Management. He is the founder of the Global Telecom Policy Researchers Network (GTPRN), a non-profit initiative for researchers in the field of telecommunications policy. He has recently published the book The International Radio Regulations and the book chapter ‘Towards a Future-proof International Spectrum Management Policy’.

Romy Hilbig holds a PhD from the Faculty of Economics and Management Science at the University of Leipzig. As Head of Business Development of an educational institution, she is responsible for the development of new education and training formats as well as the digitalisation and internationalisation of it. She worked for Fraunhofer, RWTH Aachen Business School, and as postdoc at the Weizenbaum-Institute in Berlin, where she focuses her research on data-driven business model innovation in the educational sector, learning analytics, and the influence of artificial intelligence within educational programmes. She also works as a lecturer in the field of international management, strategic management, and data-driven business model innovation.

Roslyn Layton, PhD, studies the economics, security, and geopolitics of broadband. She testifies before the US Congress and other authorities on issues like competition in wireless technologies, spectrum reform, the security of 5G versus Wi-Fi, and broadband fair cost recovery. She serves as Visiting Researcher at the Centre for Communication, Media and Information Technology in the Department of Electronic Systems at Aalborg University in Copenhagen, Denmark, where she earned a PhD in Business Economics testing the outcomes of net neutrality regulation on mobile network innovation across 54 countries; Senior Vice President of Strand Consult; and Senior Contributor to Forbes.

William Lehr is a telecommunications and internet industry economist and consultant, and a research scientist in the Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, currently engaged in a number of multidisciplinary research projects focused on the economics and regulatory policy of the Internet infrastructure industries. He holds a PhD in Economics from Stanford (1992), an MBA from the Wharton Graduate School (1985), and MSE (1984), BS (1979), and BA (1979) degrees from the University of Pennsylvania.

Mark Jamison is Director and Gerald Gunter Professor of the University of Florida’s Public Utility Research Center, and a nonresident Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He teaches regulatory professionals internationally and writes on regulation and antitrust in information industries. He served on the FCC transition team for President-elect Trump. He has worked at Sprint, the Iowa Utilities Board, and the Kansas Corporation Commission. He has served on boards at the state and federal levels. He has written three books, numerous papers, and op-eds. He has a PhD in Economics from the University of Florida.Roslyn Layton, Aalborg University, Denmark.

J. Scott Marcus is a specialist in digital services who works as a Senior Fellow at Bruegel, a prominent Brussels-based economics think tank. He previously served as a Director for the WIK, a German research institute in regulatory economics of network industries. Prior to that, he served as Senior Advisor for Internet Technology for the United States Federal Communications Commission (FCC). He is the author of numerous papers and a book on data network design. He holds a BA in Political Science from the City College of New York, and an MS from the School of Engineering, Columbia University.

Dorothy Okello is Dean, School of Engineering, and Associate Professor, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Makerere University, where she is a Researcher with netLabs!UG, a research Centre in communications and networking. She is a Fellow of the Uganda National Academy of Sciences (FUNAS), is a Member of the Uganda Institution of Professional Engineers (UIPE), is registered with Uganda Engineers Registration Board (ERB), and is a Member of IEEE. She has experience in teaching, researching, and contributing to policies including serving on diverse boards in education, telecommunications/ICT, banking, and innovation. She is an activist for more women and rural communities engaging in innovation for development.

André Renz holds a PhD from the Faculty of Law and Economics at the University of Bayreuth. As a consultant, he focuses particularly on change processes in the field of education, datafication of institutions, and the development of open government in the public sector. Since October 2022, he also holds the position of Associate Researcher at the Chair for Transformation of Governance in Education and Society at Helmut Schmidt University Hamburg. His research focuses on digitalisation and datafication of education, and the influence of artificial intelligence on the development of educational technologies. In addition, as a lecturer, he promotes academic debate in the fields of behavioural science and discourse theory.

Georgios Smaragdakis is a Professor of Cybersecurity at TU Delft. He is also a researcher at the Max Planck Institute for Informatics and the Berlin Institute for the Foundations of Learning and Data. In the past, he conducted research at MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, MIT Internet Policy Research Initiative, TU Berlin, Boston University, and research labs (Akamai, Deutsche Telekom, Telefonica). His research was awarded a European Research Council Starting Grant, a Marie Curie International Outgoing Fellowship, Best Paper Awards at ACM SIGCOMM, IMC, CoNEXT, IEEE INFOCOM, IETF/IRTF Applied Networking Research Prizes, and selected for ‘Best of Computer Communication Review’ and Communications of the ACM Research Highlights.

Volker Stocker is the Head of the Research Group ‘Digital Economy, Internet Ecosystem, and Internet Policy’ at the Weizenbaum Institute for the Networked Society, a postdoctoral researcher with the Internet Architecture and Management (INET) Group at TU Berlin, and an associated researcher with the Internet Architecture Group at the Max Planck Institute for Informatics in Saarbrücken. He is an economist with broad experience in interdisciplinary research at the confluence of technology, economics/management, and policy. His research interests include the economics, evolution, and regulation of digital infrastructures and the Internet ecosystem, Internet policy, and the platform economy.

Tatiana Tropina is an Assistant Professor in Cybersecurity Governance at the Institute of Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University, and an Associate Fellow of The Hague Program for Cyber Norms. A lawyer by education, for the last 15 years she has been engaged in academic research, policy, and advocacy in the field of cybercrime, cybersecurity, ICT regulation, and Internet governance.

William Webb is a CTO at Access Partnership. He was one of the founding directors of Neul, an IoT company, which was formed in 2011 and became CEO of the Weightless SIG, a body standardising IoT technology. Prior to this William was a director at Ofcom where he managed a team providing technical advice and performing research. He was IET President from 2014 to 2015. William has published 17 books, 100 papers, and 18 patents. He is a Visiting Professor at Southampton University, a Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering, the IEEE, and the IET. He has been awarded multiple honorary doctorates by the UK’s leading universities.

Jason Whalley is a Professor of Digital Economy in the Department of Entrepreneurship, Innovation & Strategy, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK. He has published extensively on the structure, nature of competition, and regulation of telecommunication markets. He holds degrees from the universities of Cambridge (1992), Leeds (1994), and Strathclyde (1999). He is an Affiliated Professor at Institut Mines-Télécom Business School, France.

Josephine Wolff is an Associate Professor of Cybersecurity Policy at The Fletcher School at Tufts University. Her first book You’ll See This Message When It Is Too Late: The Legal and Economic Aftermath of Cybersecurity Breaches was published in 2018 and her second book Cyberinsurance Policy: Rethinking Risk in an Age of Ransomware, Computer Fraud, Data Breaches, and Cyberattacks was released in 2022. Her writing on cybersecurity has also appeared in Slate, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, The Washington Post, The Atlantic, and Wired.

Preface

We have all been affected by COVID-19. Since the emergence of the virus in late 2019, it has wrought far-reaching social and economic changes. As the virus spread, both within and between countries, governments imposed restrictions – these were wide-ranging in nature, often unprecedented, and sought to limit what individuals and companies could undertake. Individuals were instructed to work from home (WFH) where possible and education at all levels moved online to reduce the ability of the virus to spread, resulting in empty city centres and bustling suburbs on the one hand and creating challenges for parents to home-school their children on the other.

Companies changed how they operated. Some companies ceased to operate as the spread of the virus negatively impacted global value chains, reducing, and in some cases completely cutting, the flow of manufactured products between countries. While some companies continued to operate, albeit at much lower levels of activity than prior to the start of the pandemic, others saw dramatic increases in demand for their services. Perhaps nothing better epitomises this than the growth in demand for online video conferencing software, with ‘zoom’ being used to describe video conferencing regardless of which software is actually being used.

But not everyone experienced the pandemic in the same way. Those working in knowledge-intensive industries were able to WFH; not only did this mean that they could maintain their employment, but it also removed them from crowded offices and public transport where the virus could be easily transmitted. Of course, WFH was not without a myriad of challenges: homes became offices, bringing family members into close contact for long periods of the day, and they also became schools, forcing parents to juggle their work commitments with those of educating their children.

Working at home was not an option for those employed in other parts of the economy, such as those in the construction or healthcare sectors. In these and other sectors, economic activity ground to a halt, resulting in unemployment and the accompanying financial hardship for individuals, and people were exposed to the possibility of contracting COVID-19 as they went about their work.

Experiences were also different between countries. Some countries tried to minimise the impact of the pandemic, keeping as much of the economy open as possible, while others imposed wide-ranging and sometimes long-lasting restrictions that severely curtailed the liberties of individuals and shut down large parts of the economy. As the pandemic spread around the globe, countries sought to learn from one another, resulting in a high degree of commonality in the strategies adopted by governments. Having said this, the responses also highlighted the institutional differences that exist between countries, in terms of how restrictions were imposed as well as the financial support provided to both individuals and businesses.

Given the highly disruptive nature of the pandemic, global in scale and protracted in time, many have sought to comment on its impact. Not only has social media been awash with commentary, but countless academics and research organisations have published articles and reports on the impact of COVID-19. A voluminous literature soon emerged, but one that was often characterised by its snapshot nature – many more articles, for example, appeared that described the technological solutions to monitor those with COVID-19 than those that evaluated how such approaches have fared over time. Similarly, the imposition of various lockdown restrictions was associated with numerous commentaries on their immediate impact, with far fewer examining their consequences over the long term or the extent to which the restrictions imposed to tackle successive waves of the pandemic interacted with one another.

This volume emerged out of informal bilateral discussions among the authors of the various chapters that questioned the initial (snapshot) assessments of the impact of COVID-19. These discussions asked, in essence, a simple but intriguing question: what will the impact of COVID-19 be in the longer term? The initial assessments of the impact of COVID-19 were rooted in the uncertainty and dynamism that characterised the emergence of and reaction to the virus. In essence, the emergence of COVID-19 in China and its subsequent global diffusion generated a lot of responses and associated commentary but ascertaining what they meant for the longer term was challenging given how fast events were changing. Now, over two years after the initial emergence of COVID-19 and after successive waves of the virus have occurred, we have the opportunity to look back at events and assess in a more reflective manner the impact of COVID-19.

Given the enormity of the pandemic, it is simply not possible to cover everything within a single volume. Instead, our approach towards the content of the volume has been guided by a desire to shed light on three related questions. Firstly, what happened? Secondly, how did the pandemic affect different parts of the economy, and thirdly, how did COVID-19 shape key (on-going) policy debates? These questions are not addressed to the same degree in each chapter, enabling as a consequence the chapters to offer a focused analysis of a sector or policy issue. Sometimes this analysis is detailed, while on other occasions a ‘big picture’ approach is adopted. Not only does such an approach illustrate the scope of the pandemic and its impacts, but it also enables the nuances and subtleties of its impact to emerge as well. Insights from each of the chapters are brought together in the conclusion where we return to the aforementioned three guiding questions.

This volume lays the foundation for future explorations of the socioeconomic impact of COVID-19. As noted above, the volume is not comprehensive in its coverage. One way future research could build on the analysis contained within the volume is to examine what happened in other sectors. Manufacturing and construction are examples of such additional sectors, as are logistics and hospitality. Another way is to expand the policy debates that are examined, with perhaps the most pressing being how to tackle the multiple digital divides that the pandemic exposed.

We are acutely aware that the bulk of this volume draws on the experience of developed countries. This does not reflect the global nature of the pandemic. It does, however, reflect how the book was conceived and, to a lesser extent, the networks of the three co-editors. Subsequent efforts need to build on the insights from this volume, expanding the analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on developing countries and critically assessing how they fared. Integral to these assessments, which will be described in detail in each country, is also an evaluation of the effectiveness and efficacy of the responses that were implemented to tackle the pandemic. This will entail identifying and then assessing the institutional response that was undertaken, by governments as well as regulatory agencies, as well as cataloguing and critiquing how businesses sought to cope with the impact of the pandemic.

Such an assessment, regardless of the country, is not easy. It will require extensive amounts of data covering the whole period of the pandemic as well as the whole economy. A lot of data did emerge as the pandemic took hold. Google Mobility reports, for example, which was published for many countries and cities around the world, illustrated how the use of public transport or visits to supermarkets or parks were affected by the pandemic and the restrictions imposed to limit its spread. This was complemented by official statistics that illustrated, among other things, the impact of the pandemic on employment, the incomes of individuals and economic activity in different parts of the economy and regions of the country. Companies also published reports detailing the impact of the pandemic on their operations, demonstrating how they had responded as well as how they had sought to support their customers and suppliers. And news organisations also played a role in aggregating and disseminating COVID-19-related data; the BBC, like many other news agencies, devoted a considerable proportion of its efforts to the pandemic, while the Financial Times placed its coverage in front of its paywall.

There are signs, however, that the initial enthusiasm to collect and share COVID-19-related data is abating. Perhaps due to a combination of factors such as the protracted nature of the pandemic and gradual adjustment to COVID-19 through successive waves of the virus, combined with the costs and the insights that it offers into how a company operates, there appears to be fewer data available. Declining COVID-19-specific data, coupled with the less frequent collection and publication of that data that is still available, will impact the ability to understand the impact of COVID-19 in both the near and longer term.

Jason Whalley, Newcastle, UK

Volker Stocker, Berlin, Germany

Bill Lehr, Boston, USA

August 2022

Acknowledgements

Volker Stocker gratefully acknowledges funding by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research of Germany (BMBF) under grants no. 16DII124 and 16DII131 (“Weizenbaum-Institut für die vernetze Gesellschaft - Das Deutsche Internet-Institut”). William Lehr and Jason Whalley acknowledge the financial support they received during their time as Research Fellows at the Weizenbaum Institute for the Networked Society (Berlin, Germany).

The co-editors gratefully acknowledge the excellent editorial assistance by Max Kronfeld, who checked each chapter and saved the authors so much time by ensuring that the references conformed to APA7.