This paper empirically investigates the link between expected returns on stocks and a set of variables that describe the general state of economic activity. The model relates the…
Abstract
This paper empirically investigates the link between expected returns on stocks and a set of variables that describe the general state of economic activity. The model relates the first and second conditional moments on stock excess returns to the conditional variances and covariances of a set of prespecified macroeconomic factors. The estimation results suggest that industrial production growth, inflation, and short‐term interest rates help explain the behavior over time of expected excess returns on stocks.
Iqbal Mansur and Elyas Elyasiani
This study attempts to determine whether the level and volatility of interest rates affect the equity returns of commercial banks. Short‐term, intermediate‐term, and long‐term…
Abstract
This study attempts to determine whether the level and volatility of interest rates affect the equity returns of commercial banks. Short‐term, intermediate‐term, and long‐term interest rates are used. Volatility is defined as the conditional variance of respective interest rates and is generated by using the ARCH estimation procedure. Two sets of models are estimated. The basic models attempt to determine the effect of contemporaneous and lagged interest rate volatility on bank equity returns, while the extended models incorporate additional contemporaneous macroeconomic variables. Contemporaneous interest rate volatility has little explanatory power, while lagged volatilities do possess some explanatory power, with the lag length varying depending on the interest rate series used and the time period examined. The results from the extended model suggest that the long‐term interest rate affects bank equity returns more adversely than the short‐term or the intermediate‐term interest rates. The findings establish the relevance of incorporating macroeconomic variables and their volatilities in models determining bank equity returns.
Entering and exiting the Pandemic Recession, the author study the high-frequency real-activity signals provided by a leading nowcast, the ADS Index of Business Conditions produced…
Abstract
Entering and exiting the Pandemic Recession, the author study the high-frequency real-activity signals provided by a leading nowcast, the ADS Index of Business Conditions produced and released in real time by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The author tracks the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs and compares them to a later-vintage chronology. Real-time ADS plunges and then swings as its underlying economic indicators swing, but the ADS paths quickly converge to indicate a return to brisk positive growth by mid-May. The author shows, moreover, that the daily real-activity path was highly correlated with the daily COVID-19 cases. Finally, the author provides a comparative assessment of the real-time ADS signals provided when exiting the Great Recession.
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Since this paper was first published additional work has been carried out which, though not affecting the stated conclusions contained in the information herein, has brought about…
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Since this paper was first published additional work has been carried out which, though not affecting the stated conclusions contained in the information herein, has brought about additional beneficial results and knowledge. Consequently, a second article will follow as a sequel to that now published.
Malcolm Hollis and Keith Bright
This research examines the perceived concern in the public arena about the quality of residential surveys and suggests a high rate of sub standard reporting within residential…
Abstract
This research examines the perceived concern in the public arena about the quality of residential surveys and suggests a high rate of sub standard reporting within residential surveys. The Homebuyer form of report was used in a test of survey standards. A sample of ten surveyors examined the same house in controlled circumstances. Only one surveyor identified each of the three key defects within the property. The research considers the method of assessment of quality within surveys and reports upon the identification of defects and the levels of recognition. The research concludes that there is an unexpectedly high level of reporting that falls below an acceptable standard. Recommendations are made for the improvement of standards, an assessment of the skills required and the requirements for the education process for surveyors.
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Amir M. Alani, Andrew K. Petersen and Keith G. Chapman
Describes a case study that applies the principles of “a proposed quantitative model for building repair and maintenance” developed in theory by Alani et al. The proposed model…
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Describes a case study that applies the principles of “a proposed quantitative model for building repair and maintenance” developed in theory by Alani et al. The proposed model relies on the relationship between the number of defects and time where the collection of the number of defects data has been made using a condition based survey and specifically developed survey form. Using established declining balance depreciation methods a close correlation between the models cost/time and quality/time curves has been determined. Applies the proposed coded system of observing, assessing, recording and appraising the condition of the elements of a large residential building and calculates the cost of repairing and maintaining (at a pre‐determined condition) the elements of that specific building.
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This chapter provides an overview of ways the European Network of Ombudspersons for Children (ENOC) has influenced the development, structure, and functions of independent…
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This chapter provides an overview of ways the European Network of Ombudspersons for Children (ENOC) has influenced the development, structure, and functions of independent children’s rights organizations (ICRIs). Employing theoretical perspectives of New Institutionalism and World Society Approach and other concepts from institutional theories, this chapter explores explanations of isomorphic impacts of ENOC on ICRIs. This chapter examines how ENOC membership criteria have influenced ICRIs and their work, how ENOC’s influences on ICRIs may be tied to deterring decoupling from the symbolic promises nation states make when ratifying children’s rights instruments, and how agendas at ENOC annual meetings foster focused attention and work of ICRIs on specific substantive issues relevant to the promotion of children’s rights. That ENOC has served as a model organization of ICRIs suggests worldwide influences on the promotion of children’s rights.
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Haverhill‐based Kemira Coatings, a leading manufacturer of factory applied coatings for wood, has been awarded four stars under the British Safety Council Five Star rating for…
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Haverhill‐based Kemira Coatings, a leading manufacturer of factory applied coatings for wood, has been awarded four stars under the British Safety Council Five Star rating for safety in the workplace, by the Council's director general, James Tye.
Interviews ‐ We shall publish from time to time reports of interviews with librarians and others. We shall endeavour to feature librarians in different kinds of work (or none); we…
Abstract
Interviews ‐ We shall publish from time to time reports of interviews with librarians and others. We shall endeavour to feature librarians in different kinds of work (or none); we shall neither seek out nor avoid the well known, but hope to meet those whose work and view of it will demonstrate that variety which is a characteristic of library and information work.
IT IS EASY to make glib generalisations about the student situation in this country, and its associated problems, but a recondite analysis of student mores is much more difficult…
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IT IS EASY to make glib generalisations about the student situation in this country, and its associated problems, but a recondite analysis of student mores is much more difficult. Commentators tend to be extreme, varying from those who declaim ‘All for youth and the world well lost’ to those crying ‘Stop their grants, make them do a day's work’, and more in similar vein. An understanding of student attitudes to work and society is one thing, the cause and effect of their attitudes is quite another. What is certain is that there has been a radical change, and the full effects of this change are yet to be felt. Behind each new generation rise those ever ready to decry the follies of youth, but today there is a widespread and differing view held that youth is king, and can do no wrong. Both of these points of view are extreme, and both, in totality, are unjustified.