Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Entering and Exiting the Pandemic Recession of 2020
Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova
ISBN: 978-1-80382-636-3, eISBN: 978-1-80382-635-6
Publication date: 16 September 2022
Abstract
Entering and exiting the Pandemic Recession, the author study the high-frequency real-activity signals provided by a leading nowcast, the ADS Index of Business Conditions produced and released in real time by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The author tracks the evolution of real-time vintage beliefs and compares them to a later-vintage chronology. Real-time ADS plunges and then swings as its underlying economic indicators swing, but the ADS paths quickly converge to indicate a return to brisk positive growth by mid-May. The author shows, moreover, that the daily real-activity path was highly correlated with the daily COVID-19 cases. Finally, the author provides a comparative assessment of the real-time ADS signals provided when exiting the Great Recession.
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Acknowledgements
Acknowledgements
This chapter is a revised and extended version of Diebold (2020). For helpful discussion I thank (without implicating) Boragan Aruoba, Scott Brave, Daniel Lewis, Tony Liu, Andrew Patton, Glenn Rudebusch, Frank Schorfheide, Chiara Scotti, Minchul Shin, Keith Sill, Jim Stock, Mark Watson, Simon van Norden, and especially Tom Stark. For outstanding research assistance and related discussion I thank Philippe Goulet Coulombe, Boyan Zhang, and especially Tony Liu. The usual disclaimer applies.
Citation
Diebold, F.X. (2022), "Real-Time Real Economic Activity: Entering and Exiting the Pandemic Recession of 2020", Dolado, J.J., Gambetti, L. and Matthes, C. (Ed.) Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova (Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 44A), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 5-24. https://doi.org/10.1108/S0731-90532022000044A002
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2022 Francis X. Diebold