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The origin of the gravity model can he traced as far back as G. W. von Liehnitz in the late seventeenth Century and A. Comte, A. Quételet and H. C. Carey in the nineteenth; it was argued that human behaviour could be treated by analogy to and with techniques derived from the physical sciences, that the influence of one population on another would vary directly with the size of the population and inversely with distance.

The importance of accurate forecasts of tourism demand for managerial decision making is widely recognized (see, for example, Archer 1987), and this study examines the literature on the accuracy of tourism forecasts generated by different forecasting techniques. In fact, although there are many possible forecasting methods, in practice relatively few of these have been used for tourism forecasting.

1. The Mathematical‐Type Techniques. The most commonly employed mathematical‐type techniques are the multi‐variate regression analysis and gravity and trip generation models.

Evolution of Micro‐Models. Unlike the overall development in consumer research, specialized modeling of tourist behavior mainly occurred on the aggregate level. Macroeconomic demand or gravity and trip‐generation models are well known among scholars of tourism (Archer 1976, Vanhove 1979) while the individual tourist decision process has not been a subject of great priority. Modeling on the disaggregate level apart from some exceptions in travel behavior and mode selection (Tybout and Hauser 1981; Barff, Mackay and Olshavsky 1982) rarely exceeds the standard technique of flow‐charting. Gallichan (1976) and Go (1981) offer typical examples of ad hoc defined stages in the tourist decision sequence.

Tourist regions in the United Kingdom are facing a very difficult dilemma. With the steady increase in family incomes and leisure hours, an increasing number of urban dwellers are taking holidays in the countryside, especially along the coastline. In the words of Prince Charles, speaking at The Countryside in 1970 conference in London on 27th October, 1970:

The tourist industry is not a single entity but consists of a heterogeneous group of firms and establishments providing a wide range of services for tourists. Some of these businesses are entirely or mainly dependent upon tourist spending, whilst others cater primarily for the resident population and their income from holiday‐makers forms only a marginal addition to their revenue. Yet tourist spending becomes diffused through a region with multiplier effect and many other sectors of the economy receive secondary benefits from the initial round of tourist spending.

To measure the economic impact of tourism several indicators are mentioned in the literature. Variables which are mentioned very often are: Expenditure, income, employment, foreign exchange earnings, tax receipts, investments, social benefits, tourism multiplier, etc...

Researchers are showing lately an increased interest toward the special event tourist niche, mostly due to the growth in demand for manifestations such as exhibitions, festivals and other historical and cultural displays. Besides meeting demand, special events are organized having in mind many other outcomes, one of them being their economic impact. Indeed, they may lead to an influx of funds in the area that in turn leads to increased sales, therefore to an increase in income and to the creation of new jobs. It is important that this type of events is analyzed allowing for better allocation of resources as well as for better planning of future similar events. Furthermore, estimating the event's possible economic impact in the planning phase could also lead to a much higher efficiency hence a more successful event. This study analyzes two of the most successful special events organized in Mississippi that attracted over 500,000 and 300,000 visitors. The study presents interesting findings related to patron profile as well as to their potential economic impact suggesting that such events may indeed lead to a significant increase in economic activity.

The main objective of this paper is to examine the impact of COVID-19 on the tourism flows of eight Asia-Pacific Countries: Australia, Hong Kong, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand.

Using monthly data from 2019M1 to 2021M10 and 48 origin and eight destination countries in a panel Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation technique and gravity equation framework, this paper finds that after controlling for gravity determinants, COVID-19 periods have a 0.689% lower tourism inflow than in non-COVID-19 periods. The total observations in this paper are 12,138.

A 1% increase in COVID-19 transmission in the origin country leads to a 0.037% decline in tourism flow in the destination country, while the reduction is just 0.011% from the destination. On the mortality side, the corresponding decline in tourism flows from origin countries is 0.030%, whereas it is 0.038% from destination countries. A 1% increase in vaccine intensity in the destination country leads to a 0.10% improvement in tourism flows, whereas vaccinations at the source have no statistically significant effect. The results are also robust at a 1% level in a pooled OLS and random-effects specification for the same model.

The findings provide insights into managing tourism flows concerning transmission, death and vaccination coverage in destination and origin countries.

The COVID-19-induced tourism decline may also be considered another channel through which the global recession has been aggravated. If we convert this decline in terms of loss of GDP, the global figure will be huge, and airline industries will have to cut down many service products for a long time to recover from the COVID-19-induced tourism decline.

It is to be realized by the policymaker and politicians that infectious diseases have no national boundary, and the problem is not local or national. That’s why it is to be faced globally with cooperation from all the countries.

This is the first paper to address tourism disruption due to COVID-19 in eight Asia-Pacific countries using a gravity model framework.

1. Asia-Pacific countries are traditionally globalized through tourism channels

2. This pattern was severely affected by COVID-19 transmission and mortality and improved through vaccination

3. The gravity model can be used to quantify the loss in the tourism sector due to COVID-19 shocks

4. Transmission and mortality should be controlled both at the origin and the destination countries

5. Vaccinations in destination countries significantly raise tourism flows

Asia-Pacific countries are traditionally globalized through tourism channels

This pattern was severely affected by COVID-19 transmission and mortality and improved through vaccination

The gravity model can be used to quantify the loss in the tourism sector due to COVID-19 shocks

Transmission and mortality should be controlled both at the origin and the destination countries

Vaccinations in destination countries significantly raise tourism flows

Data relating to group composition are collected in most sample surveys of visitors, both at frontiers and within a tourist region. A vital element is that of size of group. It is important that the distribution of group sizes within the population under consideration is reflected accurately by the sample, possibly after some weighting procedures. A sampling procedure which is biased in terms of size of group will provide biased results concerning any variable that is related to group size. In particular it would lead to false information on the proportions of different types of visitor (eg businessmen, who are more likely to travel alone than are holiday‐makers) and inaccurate estimates may therefore be produced of, say, expenditure. Marketing plans also often depend on results obtained for group composition.