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This paper aims to identify China’s realistic export opportunities (REOs) among the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) group of countries.

The methodology used is a decision support model (DSM) that filters data based on country risk; macro-economic country performance; market potential in terms of import growth and import market size; and market access conditions. The high-potential REOs are revealed.

Out of the 84 BRI countries, 79 countries represent 42.5% of China’s REOs globally and 26.9% of China’s globally untapped potential value. Interestingly, 17.9% of this untapped potential is in the BRI countries Poland, Austria and the Czech Republic, thus providing a potentially important route into the European Union.

If China wants to develop additional or new markets, focus should be put on the BRI markets outside of the top 20. China should also invest in the development of most BRI economies, to ensure their future growth and increased demand for import of products and services from China.

The shortlist of China’s REOs in the individual BRI countries makes for more efficient planning and prioritising of export development activities. It also highlights the need for policymakers to look beyond international trade and focus on how to also improve the domestic economies of the BRI partners.

To the best of authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first to use the DSM to identify China’s REOs at HS6-digit level within the BRI group. The findings have important implications for China’s export promotion agencies, industry associations and individual companies.

This paper aims to provide a country case study of South Africa’s response during the first six months following its first COVID-19 case. The focus is on the government’s (mis-)management of its non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (or “lockdown”) to stem the pandemic and the organized business sector’s resistance against the lockdown.

This paper makes use of a literature review and provides descriptive statistics and quantitative analysis of COVID-19 and the lockdown stringency in South Africa, based on data from Google Mobility Trends, Oxford University’s Stringency Index, Johns Hopkins University’s COVID-19 tracker and Our World in Data.

This paper finds that both the government and the business sector’s responses to the COVID-19 pandemic have been problematic. These key actors have been failing to “pull together,” leaving South Africa’s citizens in-between corrupt and incompetent officials on the one hand, and lockdown skeptics on the other. This paper argues that to break through this impasse, the country should change direction by agreeing on a smart or “Goldilocks” lockdown, based on data, testing, decentralization, demographics and appropriate economic support measures, including export support. Such a Goldilocks lockdown is argued, based on available evidence from the emerging scientific literature, to be able to save lives, improve trust in government, limit economic damages and moreover improve the country’s long-term recovery prospects.

The pandemic is an unprecedented crisis and moreover was still unfolding at the time of writing. This has two implications. First, precise data on the economic impact and certain epidemiological parameters was not (yet) available. Second, the causes of the mismanagement by the government are not clear yet, within such a short time frame. More research and better data may be able in future to allow conclusions to be drawn whether the problems that were besetting the country’s management of COVID-19 are unique or perhaps part of a more general problem across developing countries.

The paper provides clear practical implications for both government and organized business. The South African Government should not altogether end its lockdown measures, but follow a smart and flexible lockdown. The organized business sector should abandon its calls for ending the lockdown while the country is still among the most affected countries in the world, and no vaccine is available.

There should be better collaboration between government, business and civil society to manage a smart lockdown. Government should re-establish lost trust because of the mismanagement of the lockdown during the first six months of the pandemic.

The outline of the smart lockdown that is proposed for the country combines NPIs with the promotion of exports, as a policy intervention to help aggregate demand to recover. The paper provides advice on how to resolve an impasse created by mismanagement of COVID-19, which could be valuable for decision-making during a crisis, particularly in developing countries.

This paper aims to identify Thailand’s realistic export opportunities (REOs) in the ASEAN+3 countries (i.e. ASEAN, Greater China, Japan and South Korea), which together constitute an economically dynamic region and a strategic export destination for Thailand. Furthermore, the paper seeks to determine the extent to which Thailand already has a share in ASEAN+3 countries and where new opportunities lie. This allows the formulation of appropriate export promotion strategies for Thailand.

The methodology used is a decision support model (DSM) which uses an extensive data-filtering system to systematically screen and eliminate less-promising product–country combinations to ultimately reveal high-potential REOs. Product–country combinations are screened on the basis of country risk; macro-economic country performance; market potential in terms of import growth and import market size; and market access conditions, including market concentration and the existence of trade barriers. The thus narrowed-down REOs are categorised according to Thailand’s relative market share in, and the characteristics of, the identified import markets.

The study reveals that the ASEAN+3 countries account for about 40 per cent of the total potential export value of Thailand’s REOs in the world, with China leading the way (12.45 per cent), followed by Japan (8.56 per cent) and South Korea (6.23 per cent). However, Thailand has a relatively small or intermediately small market share in the majority of these REOs, pointing to the need for more offensive and exploratory export promotion strategies.

The ASEAN+3 countries – given that they are an abundant source of REOs for Thailand and are in Thailand’s “backyard” – should receive more focused attention and resources in government export promotion efforts. The recent launch of the ASEAN Economic Community and the proposed establishment of an East Asia Free Trade Area lend weight to the idea of Thailand adopting a strong regional focus in its export activities.

The insights derived from the study are valuable for export promotion officials, industry representatives and practising exporters alike, as they constitute an easy-to-digest snapshot of high-potential REOs for Thailand in the ASEAN+3 region. This makes for more efficient planning and prioritising of export development activities, and a more streamlined approach to resource allocation.

Export promotion shows diminishing returns and requires sustainable strategies and interventions. The value in this paper lies in its description of an innovative market selection tool, the DSM, which is able to process and filter high volumes of information and arrive at a shortlist of high-potential REOs for Thailand in the ASEAN+3 countries. The paper represents a concise case study of the DSM in practice, which should be of particular interest to export promotion agencies, industry associations and both new and more established exporting countries.

All too often leadership programs are developed in relative isolation; that is, they tend to be either academic or practitioner in nature. Arguably, much more effective leadership programs are possible through collaboration between academics and practitioners. This application brief describes one such successful collaboration to develop an inspirational leadership workshop based upon the leadership experiences of retired four-star U.S. Army General Tommy Franks. The result is an award winning leadership workshop designed for both students and professionals.

This chapter provides an extensive review of literature on the interaction between and interdependence of informal and formal working practices in various workplace settings. The aim of the chapter is to elucidate the organisational, managerial, human relations and social factors that give rise to informal work practices and strategies, on the shop-floor not only at workers and work group levels but also at supervisory and managerial levels. This chapter helps the reader to understand the informal work practice of making a plan (planisa) in a deep-level mining workplace.

Organization change (OC) is increasingly important in today's volatile world. Understanding OC is a growing emphasis of management and organization (M&O) research and the singular focus of OC scholarship and practice. We show how selected M&O theories inform OC at the organization level. These theoretical perspectives diverge on issues central to OC. We explore what these conceptual differences mean for OC study and practice going forward.

The paper aims to compare and clarify the differences and between the two well-known decomposition spectral techniques; the Winer–Chaos expansion (WCE) and the Winer–Hermite expansion (WHE). The details of the two decompositions are outlined. The difficulties arise when using the two techniques are also mentioned along with the convergence orders. The reader can also find a collection of references to understand the two decompositions with their origins. The geometrical Brownian motion is considered as an example for an important process with exact solution for the sake of comparison. The two decompositions are found practical in analysing the SDEs. The WCE is, in general, simpler, while WHE is more efficient as it is the limit of WCE when using infinite number of random variables. The Burgers turbulence is considered as a nonlinear example and WHE is shown to be more efficient in detecting the turbulence. In general, WHE is more efficient especially in case of nonlinear and/or non-Gaussian processes.

The paper outlined the technical and literature review of the WCE and WHE techniques. Linear and nonlinear processes are compared to outline the comparison along with the convergence of both techniques.

The paper shows that both decompositions are practical in solving the stochastic differential equations. The WCE is found simpler and WHE is the limit when using infinite number of random variables in WCE. The WHE is more efficient especially in case of nonlinear problems.

Applicable for SDEs with square integrable processes and coefficients satisfying Lipschitz conditions.

This paper fulfils a comparison required by the researchers in the stochastic analysis area. It also introduces a simple efficient technique to model the flow turbulence in the physical domain.

The purpose of this paper is to present an efficient method for the numerical treatment of robust optimization problems with absolute reliability constraints.

Optimization with anti-optimization based on response surface techniques; polynomial chaos for approximation of the stochastic objective function.

The number of function calls is comparable to that of the corresponding deterministic problem. Thus, the method is well suited for complex technical systems. The performance of the method is demonstrated on an optimal design problem for turbochargers.

The highlights of this paper are: algorithms for robust and deterministic problems show comparable complexity; no derivatives required; good convergence properties because of special set up of optimization problem; application in complex industrial examples.

The purpose of this article is to propose a detailed methodology to estimate, model and incorporate the non-constant volatility onto a numerical tree scheme, to evaluate a real option, using a quadrinomial multiplicative recombination.

This article uses the multiplicative quadrinomial tree numerical method with non-constant volatility, based on stochastic differential equations of the GARCH-diffusion type to value real options when the volatility is stochastic.

Findings showed that in the proposed method with volatility tends to zero, the multiplicative binomial traditional method is a particular case, and results are comparable between these methodologies, as well as to the exact solution offered by the Black–Scholes model.

The originality of this paper lies in try to model the implicit (conditional) market volatility to assess, based on that, a real option using a quadrinomial tree, including into this valuation the stochastic volatility of the underlying asset. The main contribution is the formal derivation of a risk-neutral valuation as well as the market risk premium associated with volatility, verifying this condition via numerical test on simulated and real data, showing that our proposal is consistent with Black and Scholes formula and multiplicative binomial trees method.