Martin Belvisi, Riccardo Pianeti and Giovanni Urga
We propose a novel dynamic factor model to characterise comovements between returns on securities from different asset classes from different countries. We apply a…
Abstract
We propose a novel dynamic factor model to characterise comovements between returns on securities from different asset classes from different countries. We apply a global-class-country latent factor model and allow time-varying loadings. We are able to separate contagion (asset exposure driven) and excess interdependence (factor volatility driven). Using data from 1999 to 2012, we find evidence of contagion from the US stock market during the 2007–2009 financial crisis, and of excess interdependence during the European debt crisis from May 2010 onwards. Neither contagion nor excess interdependence is found when the average measure of model implied comovements is used.
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Richa Pandey and V. Mary Jessica
The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of the 2008 global financial crisis on housing market dynamics in an emerging economy like India using quarterly data (Q4…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of the 2008 global financial crisis on housing market dynamics in an emerging economy like India using quarterly data (Q4 2008–2009 to Q1 2018–2019). The study explores the extent of linkages between housing prices, monetary policy and financial stability by explaining the nature of the shocks to the housing sector and the degree of impact of those shocks; the possibility of adverse feedback loop which is beyond the natural levels; and the usefulness of explicit and direct role of monetary policy for the housing market stability, which was the loudest demand immediately after the crisis.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper follows a three-step methodology: data transformations, a variable selection process “general-to-specific modelling” with the help of OxMetrics 6 Package, and vector autoregressive modelling with the help of EViews 10. F-test was used to describe the short-term relationships between the variables. Impulse response and variance decomposition were used to explain the type of relationship (negative or positive) and the period of the relationships, respectively.
Findings
The study finds that the housing sector is sensitive to the monetary policy shocks, whereas the contribution of the housing market shocks to the fluctuations in other market variables is not substantial, though not negligible. As far as the nature of the shocks is concerned, the observed dynamics in the real house prices are diverging from their fundamental levels. The housing market shocks are more or less static; it rules out the chances for a self-reinforcing feedback loop with the existing setup.
Research limitations/implications
The study concludes that the observed dynamics in the real house prices are diverging from their fundamental levels. Given the limitation, the researchers could extend this study by decomposing the part of the risk to the sector contributed by the other drivers, which may be inherent imperfections in housing markets, weak and unreliable wealth effect, and the presence of behavioural biases.
Practical implications
The present study finds countercyclical measures to be more useful for this sector as compared to the forward-looking monetary policy reforms in this sector. The central bank in India should continue to refrain from responding directly to the housing sector fluctuations. Investors can enjoy investing in the housing sector without any fear of the crisis as of now. The effect of speculation is small but not negligible, which enjoins the investors and the policy-makers to remain watchful. Interest rate, money supply and inflation lead (Granger-cause) the housing prices. This information is relevant for spending and investment decisions.
Social implications
The study feels that banks should avoid using monetary policy to balance the house prices. This will be beneficial both for the economy and the society, as any change in monetary policy to especially curb out surging housing prices may adversely affect the output, and finally, may lead to the deflation. The fear of deflation may cause devastating economic, financial and social effects.
Originality/value
The study contributes to the literature by shedding some new insights about the interrelationship between macroeconomic variables, housing prices and financial stability in the aftermath of the 2008–2009 financial crisis. Such types of studies are absent from emerging markets, particularly from India.
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David Mensah Sackey, De-Graft Owusu-Manu, Richard Ohene Asiedu and Adam Braimah Jehuri
Ghana has recently reviewed its renewable energy Act 835 with an objective of providing 10% of its energy from renewables by 2020 (Ackah and Asomani, 2015). Meanwhile, solar…
Abstract
Purpose
Ghana has recently reviewed its renewable energy Act 835 with an objective of providing 10% of its energy from renewables by 2020 (Ackah and Asomani, 2015). Meanwhile, solar Photovoltaic (PV) accounts for less than 2% of the energy mix (Energy Commission, 2018). In combating environmental issues such as climate change and meeting these policy targets, there is the urgent need to increase investment into the renewable sector. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to critically examine the impeding constraints to photovoltaic investment in Ghana.
Design/methodology/approach
The Literature evaluation was carried out of critical constraints surrounding PV investments. Questionnaire was developed and administered online using Google form. Descriptive statistics was used to describe the features of each constraint. In addition, inferential analysis using relative importance index was used to rank these indicators. Again, one sample t-test was used to test the significance of the indicator. Multiple indicators were used to measure the latent constructs. Finally, independent test of mean equity was used to test relationship between the working experiences of despondence who have worked with solar PV below five years and those who worked from five years to ten years.
Findings
The research has highlights high installation and maintenance costs, lack of access to long-term capital finance, access to affordable consumer finance and lack of support to research and development as the major investment obstacles to solar PV investment in Ghana.
Research limitations/implications
It is recommended that the Government of Ghana should provide incentives such as tax waivers, which will encourage entrepreneurs, invest into PV. In addition, it is recommended that solar PV companies must collaborate with financial institutions to provide low interest and flexible consumer financing schemed that can enable home users to purchase the technology. Future research should complement this work by focusing on the impact of domestic currency volatility on PV investment. The scope of this study is constrained to the PV industry in Ghana.
Practical implications
This study will serve as a guide to the private sector business owners to help make critical PV investment decisions. It has also brought to the forefront the reason why solar PV account for a small fraction of Ghana’s energy mix.
Originality/value
This paper seeks to espouse the prevailing constraints to PV investment in Ghana and seeks to contribute to already existing literature that will make profound changes in state policy around PV investment. By understanding these difficulties, driving pointers can be recognized to encourage effective future venture inside the sustainable power source area. In this way, the research leads to a better understanding of the impeding factors that hinders PV investment in Ghana. Again, the paper has achieved new discovery with regards to variations between years of experience with PV use. The variation being less than five years with over five years of PV use. By understanding these difficulties, driving pointers can be recognized to invigorate effective future ventures.