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John Taylor devised a simple monetary policy rule that links the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate with inflation and output targets. This paper compares actual policy rates with the rates that would have been recommended by the basic Taylor Rule for three long periods in U.S. economic history: 1875–1913 (“Pre Fed”), 1914–1951 (“Early Fed”), and 1952–1998 (“Modern Fed”). In addition, the authors develop a more complex version of the Rule to facilitate a comparison of the way in which each monetary authority would have reacted to the economic challenges presented outside its own time period. The empirical evidence suggests that Modern Fed would have reacted more promptly and appropriately to inflation and output problems outside its time period than either Early Fed or Pre Fed, and that the movement of interest rates in the Pre Fed period came closer to the corrective policies of Modern Fed than did those of Early Fed.

We would like to thank C. Y. Chen, Wenchih Lee, two anonymous referees and the seminar participants at the 2000 FMA annual meeting for their helpful comments and encouragement. All of the remaining errors are our responsibility.

This paper examines the thesis that the Federal Reserve adopted a tighter monetary policy in 1994 than economic conditions warranted. The empirical evidence suggests the FOMC did react differently to the basic economic indicators than under economic normalcy, but not differently than it would have under similar, prior tight money economic conditions. E52

According to the Keynesian income determination model, as the level of expenditures is instantaneously increased through government or private investment a portion of that amount (b), the marginal propensity to consume, is immediately respent. This precipitates a perpetual turnover of each fractional amount throughout time such that the level of expenditures eventually amounts to (1/1‐b) times the initial increase in investment. The total impact on the level of income resulting from an increase in investment or government expenditures is called the multiplier. As derived in the macro‐economic models no leakages from the system to reduce the total impact are assumed, so that in reality the multiplier is considered to fall short of (1/1‐b).

The purpose of this paper is to develop a single variable indicative of the state of market speculation; to determine whether the Federal Reserve has attempted to quell speculation when it has been most rampant and whether such attempts were successful.

The paper examine the literature on market “bubbles” and the Federal Reserve's treatment of them; to determine a single variable reflective of market speculation via principle components integration; to examine the Federal Reserve's interaction with market speculation by estimating a vector autoregression version of the Taylor rule.

It is possible to construct a single variable representative of market speculation, termed the index of speculative excess that correlates well with standard views of market excess; the Federal Reserve did attempt to retard market speculation during the three major bull markets of the past century; monetary policy did little to inhibit market speculation.

Highly original in the construction of a single variable reflective of market speculation; joins the ongoing debate as to the extent of Federal Reserve concern with speculative activity and the Fed's poor record of accomplishment in this area.

This paper aims to examine the controversial issue of the extent to which Federal Reserve monetary policy may have contributed to the recent housing crisis and subsequent adverse macroeconomic developments.

The authors develop a small model that facilitates OLS and VAR estimates of the critical period.

The empirical results support the claim of John B. Taylor and others who held that monetary policy was excessively stimulative in terms of the low fed funds rate 2002‐2005, but also support the view of Alan Greenspan and others that the linkages between short‐term rates, long‐term rates, and the housing market deteriorated during that decade.

The model includes the Taylor Rule, a housing equation, and a mechanism linking the two relationships. The empirical results support elements of the camp that blames monetary policy for the recent housing crisis, and elements of the opposing camp which limits policy culpability. Specifically, it suggests excessive monetary ease and a structural change (for which the Fed cannot be blamed) in the monetary policy‐housing market linkage that occurred prior to the crisis. The results also support long‐term, prior crisis, channels of influence that run from the state of the economy to fed funds rates to mortgage interest rates to housing prices. A return to normalcy in the housing market should be accompanied by the re‐establishment of these channels.

The objective in this paper is to review several theoretical issues associated with fiscal policy and to test these theories via a reduced form real GNP equation using quarterly U.S. data from 1958 through 1966. Theoretical work by Friedman, Holmes and Smith, and others suggest (for different reasons) that fiscal policy may be ineffective. Holmes and Smith point out that increases in taxes may conceivably increase aggregate demand if the demand for money depends on disposable income. Higher taxes shift the IS curve to the left as usual. However, higher taxes reduce disposable income and decrease the demand for money. With a constant money supply, the LM curve shifts to the right and the lower equilibrium interest rate increases aggregate demand. The net effect of the opposite shifts in IS & LM could conceivably be an increase in income. Similarly, lower taxes may conceivably lower equilibrium income. The argument of Friedman and others runs along different lines. They emphasize that any change in government expenditure or change in taxes may temporarily alter real income, but any “pure” fiscal policy must be accompanied by a change in government debt. The larger debt that accompanies a fiscal expansion raises interest rates and eventually reduces private demand. The fiscal expansion can allegedly “crowd out” private expenditure completely so that the net long run effect on real income is zero.

The focus of this paper is the economic theory of the plans for the European Monetary Union. Part 1 demonstrates that economists, bankers and policy makers know very little about monetary policy. Part 2 explains the errors of the common practice of defining money by its functions. Because any monetary policy must rest on a definition of money it seems reasonable to conclude that a flawed definition might lead to problems with monetary policy. Part 3 applies this insight to the plans for a common currency in Europe. Because of uncertainties about the timing and details of the implementation, some important considerations are necessarily speculative. They are relegated to appendices. Appendix 1 comments on the timing and authorship and responsibility for the official reports with their unspecified authors. Appendix 2 supplies some grounds for doubting the ultimate durability of the European Monetary Union focusing on reasons that are historical, economic and pragmatic. Because the entire movement is driven by politics, not economics, Appendix 3 considers some of the relevant political issues. The conclusions summarize and speculate on possible reasons for successful outcomes.

This paper aims to explore the gendered narratives of change management at Marks and Spencer (M&S) and uses them as a lens to consider the gendered nature of the change process itself.

Two extant stories: Sleeping Beauty and the Trojan War are taken, along with the cultural archetype of the American West gunslinger to explore the gender aspects of change. The Marks and Spencer case is analysed using the corollary patriarchal narrative of Sleeping Beauty, a story whose organising logic is revealed as one of concern for patriarchal lineage, and legitimate succession. The paper, draws on the Marks and Spencer principals' memoirs and biographies.

Sleeping Beauty is shown as a narrative saturated in misogyny, aggression and violence. This violence, which is shown to characterise the Marks and Spencer case, is amplified in the second narrative, the Trojan War, in the highly personalised battles of the über‐warriors of The Iliad. The paper concludes that violent, hyper‐masculine behaviour creates and maintains a destructive cycle of leadership lionisation and failure at the company which precludes a more feminine and possibly more effective construction of change management.

Demonstrates how M&S, gendered from its birth, its development through the golden years, the crisis, its changes in leadership and its recent change management has attempted to respond to its changing environment.

This article critically reconstructs how Auguste Comte and Herbert Spencer outlined the new scientific discipline of sociology in the nineteenth century. It aims to demonstrate how their ideas for founding sociology creatively responded to the challenges of creating a new science from scratch. Finally, a different view of the so-called “founding fathers” will enable a new self-conception of sociology today. Analyzing classical sociological works usually entails focusing on authors' ideas and concepts. This paper, on the other hand, takes into account the self-descriptions of these authors and examines how they present themselves as founders of sociology. It conducts a close reading of the sociological concepts and autobiographical texts written by both Comte and Spencer. This allows us to highlight the conceptual tension between the sociological subject matter, society as an ordered object, and the self-descriptions of the authors as exceptional scientists. It also demonstrates how important the figurative elements are in this analysis. This new approach contributes to the history of ideas in general and the history of sociology in particular by offering an exploration of narrative and figurative elements in the sociological “classics.” It thus creates a deeper understanding and clearer image of the foundations of what later became sociology. Founding a new discipline is a creative act that not only consists in theoretical conceptualizations but also implies figurative aspects. These can be found primarily in the way the authors describe themselves. Furthermore, their textual and diagrammatical articulations can be understood as “founding figures” on which the idea of a figurative sociology is based.

A collection of essays by a social economist seeking to balance economics as a science of means with the values deemed necessary to man′s finding the good life and society enduring as a civilized instrumentality. Looks for authority to great men of the past and to today′s moral philosopher: man is an ethical animal. The 13 essays are: 1. Evolutionary Economics: The End of It All? which challenges the view that Darwinism destroyed belief in a universe of purpose and design; 2. Schmoller′s Political Economy: Its Psychic, Moral and Legal Foundations, which centres on the belief that time‐honoured ethical values prevail in an economy formed by ties of common sentiment, ideas, customs and laws; 3. Adam Smith by Gustav von Schmoller – Schmoller rejects Smith′s natural law and sees him as simply spreading the message of Calvinism; 4. Pierre‐Joseph Proudhon, Socialist – Karl Marx, Communist: A Comparison; 5. Marxism and the Instauration of Man, which raises the question for Marx: is the flowering of the new man in Communist society the ultimate end to the dialectical movement of history?; 6. Ethical Progress and Economic Growth in Western Civilization; 7. Ethical Principles in American Society: An Appraisal; 8. The Ugent Need for a Consensus on Moral Values, which focuses on the real dangers inherent in there being no consensus on moral values; 9. Human Resources and the Good Society – man is not to be treated as an economic resource; man′s moral and material wellbeing is the goal; 10. The Social Economist on the Modern Dilemma: Ethical Dwarfs and Nuclear Giants, which argues that it is imperative to distinguish good from evil and to act accordingly: existentialism, situation ethics and evolutionary ethics savour of nihilism; 11. Ethical Principles: The Economist′s Quandary, which is the difficulty of balancing the claims of disinterested science and of the urge to better the human condition; 12. The Role of Government in the Advancement of Cultural Values, which discusses censorship and the funding of art against the background of the US Helms Amendment; 13. Man at the Crossroads draws earlier themes together; the author makes the case for rejecting determinism and the “operant conditioning” of the Skinner school in favour of the moral progress of autonomous man through adherence to traditional ethical values.