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The purpose of this paper is to study the consideration of uncertainty from analysis modules for aircraft conceptual design by implementing uncertainty-based design optimization methods. Reliability-Based Design Optimization (RBDO), Possibility-Based Design Optimization (PBDO) and Robust Design Optimization (RDO) methods were developed to handle uncertainties of design optimization. The RBDO method is found suitable for uncertain parameters when sufficient information is available. On the other hand, the PBDO method is proposed when uncertain parameters have insufficient information. The RDO method can apply to both cases. The RBDO, PBDO and RDO methods were considered with the Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) method to generate conservative design results when low fidelity analysis tools are used.

Methods combining MDO with RBDO, PBDO and RDO were developed and have been applied to a numerical analysis and an aircraft conceptual design. This research evaluates and compares the characteristics of each method in both cases.

The RBDO result can be improved when the amount of data concerning uncertain parameters is increased. Conversely, increasing information regarding uncertain parameters does not improve the PBDO result. The PBDO provides a conservative result when less information about uncertain parameters is available.

The formulation of RDO is more complex than other methods. If the uncertainty information is increased in aircraft conceptual design case, the accuracy of RBDO will be enhanced.

This research increases the probability of a feasible design when it considers the uncertainty. This result gives more practical optimization results on a conceptual design level for fabrication.

It is RBDO, PBDO and RDO methods combined with MDO that satisfy the target probability when the uncertainties of low fidelity analysis models are considered.

As an advanced calculation methodology, reliability-based multidisciplinary design optimization (RBMDO) has been widely acknowledged for the design problems of modern complex engineering systems, not only because of the accurate evaluation of the impact of uncertain factors but also the relatively good balance between economy and safety of performance. However, with the increasing complexity of engineering technology, the proposed RBMDO method gradually cannot effectively solve the higher nonlinear coupled multidisciplinary uncertainty design optimization problems, which limits the engineering application of RBMDO. Many valuable works have been done in the RBMDO field in recent decades to tackle the above challenges. This study is to review these studies systematically, highlight the research opportunities and challenges, and attempt to guide future research efforts.

This study presents a comprehensive review of the RBMDO theory, mainly including the reliability analysis methods of different uncertainties and the decoupling strategies of RBMDO.

First, the multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) preliminaries are given. The basic MDO concepts and the corresponding mathematical formulas are illustrated. Then, the procedures of three RBMDO methods with different reliability analysis strategies are introduced in detail. These RBMDO methods were proposed for the design optimization problems under different uncertainty types. Furtherly, an optimization problem for a certain operating condition of a turbine runner blade is introduced to illustrate the engineering application of the above method. Finally, three aspects of future challenges for RBMDO, namely, time-varying uncertainty analysis; high-precision surrogate models, and verification, validation and accreditation (VVA) for the model, are discussed followed by the conclusion.

The scope of this study is to introduce the RBMDO theory systematically. Three commonly used RBMDO-SORA methods are reviewed comprehensively, including the methods' general procedures and mathematical models.

In order to solve the problems faced by First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and First Order Saddlepoint Approximation (FOSA) in structural reliability optimization, this paper aims to propose a new Reliability-based Design Optimization (RBDO) strategy for offshore engineering structures based on Original Probabilistic Model (OPM) decoupling strategy. The application of this innovative technique to other maritime structures has the potential to substantially improve their design process by optimizing cost and enhancing structural reliability.

In the strategy proposed by this paper, sequential optimization and reliability assessment method and surrogate model are used to improve the efficiency for solving RBDO. The strategy is applied to the analysis of two marine engineering structure cases of ship cargo hold structure and frame ring of underwater skirt pile gripper. The effectiveness of the method is proved by comparing the original design and the optimized results.

In this paper, the proposed new RBDO strategy is used to optimize the design of the ship cargo hold structure and the frame ring of the underwater skirt pile gripper. According to the results obtained, compared with the original design, the structure of optimization design has better reliability and stability, and reduces the risk of failure. This optimization can also better balance the relationship between performance and cost. Therefore, it is recommended for related RBDO problems in the field of marine engineering.

In view of the limitations of FORM and FOSA that may produce multiple MPPs for a single performance function, the new RBDO strategy proposed in this study provides valuable insights and robust methods for the optimization design of offshore engineering structures. It emphasizes the importance of combining advanced MPP search technology and integrating SORA and surrogate models to achieve more economical and reliable design.

The paper proposed a fast procedure for solving the reliability-based robust design optimization (RBRDO) by modifying the RBRDO formulation and transforming it into a series of RBRDO subproblems. Then for each subproblem, the objective function, constraint function and reliability index are approximated using Taylor series expansion, and their approximate forms depend on the deterministic design vector rather than the random vector and the uncertain estimation in the inner loop of RBRDO can be avoided. In this way, it can greatly reduce the evaluation number of performance function. Lastly, the trust region method is used to manage the above sequential RBRDO subproblems for convergence.

As is known, RBRDO is nested optimization, where the outer loop updates the design vector and the inner loop estimate the uncertainties. When solving the RBRDO, a large evaluation number of performance functions are needed. Aiming at this issue, the paper proposed a fast integrated procedure for solving the RBRDO by reducing the evaluation number for the performance functions. First, it transforms the original RBRDO problem into a series of RBRDO subproblems. In each subproblem, the objective function, constraint function and reliability index caused are approximated using simple explicit functions that solely depend on the deterministic design vector rather than the random vector. In this way, the need for extensive sampling simulation in the inner loop is greatly reduced. As a result, the evaluation number for performance functions is significantly reduced, leading to a substantial reduction in computation cost. The trust region method is then employed to handle the sequential RBRDO subproblems, ensuring convergence to the optimal solutions. Finally, the engineering test and the application are presented to illustrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed methods.

The paper proposes a fast procedure of solving the RBRDO can greatly reduce the evaluation number of performance function within the RBRDO and the computation cost can be saved greatly, which makes it suitable for engineering applications.

The standard deviation of the original objective function of the RBRDO is replaced by the mean and the reliability index of the original objective function, which are further approximated by using Taylor series expansion and their approximate forms depend on the deterministic design vector rather than the random vector. Moreover, the constraint functions are also approximated by using Taylor series expansion. In this way, the uncertainty estimation of the performance functions (i.e. the mean of the objective function, the constraint functions) and the reliability index of the objective function are avoided within the inner loop of the RBRDO.

Meta-model method has been widely used in structural reliability optimization design. The main limitation of this method is that it is difficult to quantify the error caused by the meta-model approximation, which leads to the inaccuracy of the optimization results of the reliability evaluation. Taking the local high efficiency of the proxy model, this paper aims to propose a local effective constrained response surface method (LEC-RSM) based on a meta-model.

The operating mechanisms of LEC-RSM is to calculate the index of the local relative importance based on numerical theory and capture the most effective area in the entire design space, as well as selecting important analysis domains for sample changes. To improve the efficiency of the algorithm, the constrained efficient set algorithm (ESA) is introduced, in which the sample point validity is identified based on the reliability information obtained in the previous cycle and then the boundary sampling points that violate the constraint conditions are ignored or eliminated.

The computational power of the proposed method is demonstrated by solving two mathematical problems and the actual engineering optimization problem of a car collision. LEC-RSM makes it easier to achieve the optimal performance, less feature evaluation and fewer algorithm iterations.

This paper proposes a new RSM technology based on proxy model to complete the reliability design. The originality of this paper is to increase the sampling points by identifying the local importance of the analysis domain and introduce the constrained ESA to improve the efficiency of the algorithm.

The paper aims to apply numerical optimization to the aircraft design procedures applied in the airspace industry.

It is harder than ever to achieve competitive construction. This is why numerical optimization is becoming a standard tool during the design process. Although optimization procedures are becoming more mature, yet in the industry practice, fairly simple examples of optimization are present. The more complicated is the task to solve, the harder it is to implement automated optimization procedures. This paper presents practical examples of optimization in aerospace sciences. The methodology is discussed in the article in great detail.

Encountered problems related to the numerical optimization are presented. Different approaches to the solutions of the problems are shown, which have impact on the time of optimization computations and quality of the obtained optimum. Achieved results are discussed in detail with relation to the used settings.

Investigated different aspects of handling optimization problems, improving quality of the obtained optimum or speeding-up optimization by parallel computations can be directly applied in the industry optimization practice. Lessons learned from multidisciplinary optimization can bring industry products to higher level of performance and quality, i.e. more advanced, competitive and efficient aircraft design procedures, which could be applied in the industry practice. This can lead to the new approach of aircraft design process.

Introduction of numerical optimization methods in aircraft design process. Showing how to solve numerical optimization problems related to advanced cases of conceptual and preliminary aircraft design.

Transporting hydrogen through natural gas pipelines in blended compositions has been proven to be a highly feasible solution in the short term. However, under hydrogen-rich environments, steel structures are prone to hydrogen-induced damage (HID). Additionally, uncertainties in various parameters can significantly impact the performance evaluation of hydrogen pipelines. Efficient reliability and sensitivity analyses of medium- to high-strength steel pipelines considering HID have become a challenge. Therefore, the primary aim of this study is to address this issue.

This study first establishes reliability analysis models for medium- to high-strength steels, represented by X65 and X80. In these models, the effect of HID is expressed by reduced stress, and its statistical parameters are calculated. Then, a highly efficient enhanced first order reliability method (FORM) is proposed for pipeline reliability analysis. This method overcomes the oscillation and convergence issues of traditional FORM when dealing with certain problems and can compute negative reliability indices. The proposed reliability analysis method is applied to solve the constructed reliability models. Finally, a reliability sensitivity analysis is conducted on the models to identify the key variables affecting the reliability of medium- to high-strength steel pipelines under HID.

First, two reliability analysis examples are used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed enhanced FORM. Then, using this method to solve the constructed reliability models for X65 and X80 steel pipelines under HID reveals that, for both types of steel, the reliability indices decrease significantly when considering HID compared to cases without HID. The decline is more pronounced for X80 steel than for X65 steel. As internal pressure increases, the reliability of both steels drops sharply, showing a concave parabolic trend. Moreover, the reliability sensitivity analysis shows that at a pressure of 10 MPa, for both X80 and X65, internal pressure, pipeline wall thickness and model error are the top three factors influencing reliability. As internal pressure increases, its influence becomes stronger, while the impact of other variables diminishes. Notably, for X80 steel, the presence of hydrogen amplifies the effect of internal pressure on pipeline reliability compared to when HID is not considered, but for X65, this trend is reversed.

Given the urgent need for safety evaluation studies on hydrogen transport through natural gas pipelines, this research provides new insights by constructing reliability models for X65 and X80 pipeline steels under HID and introducing an enhanced FORM method. The results of the reliability and sensitivity analyses of the models offer valuable insights and serve as a reference for engineering design.

The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel non-probabilistic reliability-based topology optimization (NRBTO) method for continuum structural design under interval uncertainties of load and material parameters based on the technology of 3D printing or additive manufacturing.

First, the uncertainty quantification analysis is accomplished by interval Taylor extension to determine boundary rules of concerned displacement responses. Based on the interval interference theory, a novel reliability index, named as the optimization feature distance, is then introduced to construct non-probabilistic reliability constraints. To circumvent convergence difficulties in solving large-scale variable optimization problems, the gradient-based method of moving asymptotes is also used, in which the sensitivity expressions of the present reliability measurements with respect to design variables are deduced by combination of the adjoint vector scheme and interval mathematics.

The main findings of this paper should lie in that new non-probabilistic reliability index, i.e. the optimization feature distance which is defined and further incorporated in continuum topology optimization issues. Besides, a novel concurrent design strategy under consideration of macro-micro integration is presented by using the developed RBTO methodology.

Uncertainty propagation analysis based on the interval Taylor extension method is conducted. Novel reliability index of the optimization feature distance is defined. Expressions of the adjoint vectors between interval bounds of displacement responses and the relative density are deduced. New NRBTO method subjected to continuum structures is developed and further solved by MMA algorithms.

This paper compares six reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) approaches dealing with uncertainties for a simple mathematical model and a multidisciplinary optimization problem of a safety transformer to highlight the most effective.

The RBDO and various approaches to calculate the probability of failure are is presented. They are compared in terms of precision and number of evaluations on mathematical and electromagnetic design problems.

The mathematical example shows that the six RBDO approaches have almost the same results except the approximate moment approach that is less accurate. The optimization of the safety transformer highlights that not all the methods can converge to the global solution. Performance measure approach, single-loop approach and sequential optimization and reliability assessment (SORA) method appear to be more stable. Considering both numerical examples, SORA is the most effective method among all RBDO approaches.

The comparison of six RBDO methods on the optimization problem of a safety transformer is achieved for the first time. The comparison in terms of precision and number of evaluations highlights the most effective ones.

Reliability-based design optimizations (RBDOs) of engineering structures involve complex non-linear/non-differentiable performance functions, including both continuous and discrete variables. The gradient-based RBDO algorithms are less than satisfactory for these cases. The simulation-based approaches could also be computationally inefficient, especially when the double-loop strategy is used. This paper aims to present a pseudo-double loop flexible RBDO, which is efficient for solving problems, including both discrete/continuous variables.

The method is based on the hybrid improved binary bat algorithm (BBA) and weighed simulation method (WSM). According to this method, each BBA’s movement generates proper candidate solutions, and subsequently, WSM evaluates the reliability levels for design candidates to conduct swarm in a low-cost safe-region.

The accuracy of the proposed enhanced BBA and also the hybrid WSM-BBA are examined for ten benchmark deterministic optimizations and also four RBDO problems of truss structures, respectively. The solved examples reveal computational efficiency and superiority of the method to conventional RBDO approaches for solving complex problems including discrete variables.

Unlike other RBDO approaches, the proposed method is such organized that only one simulation run suffices during the optimization process. The flexibility future of the proposed RBDO framework enables a designer to present multi-level design solutions for different arrangements of the problem by using the results of the only one simulation for WSM, which is very helpful to decrease computational burden of the RBDO. In addition, a new suitable transfer function that enhanced convergence rate and search ability of the original BBA is introduced.