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The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of parameter uncertainty in the returns process with regime shifts on optimal portfolio choice over the long run for a static buy-and-hold investor who is investing in industry portfolios.

This paper uses a Markov switching model to model returns on industry portfolios and propose a Gibbs sampling approach to take into account parameter uncertainty. This paper compares the results with a linear benchmark model and estimates without taking into account parameter uncertainty. This paper also checks the predictive power of additional predictive variables.

Incorporating parameter uncertainty and taking into account the possible regime shifts in the returns process, this paper finds that such investors can allocate less in the long run to stocks. This holds true for both the NASDAQ portfolio and the individual high tech and manufacturing industry portfolios. Along with regime switching returns, this paper examines dividend yields and Treasury bill rates as potential predictor variables, and conclude that their predictive effect is minimal: the allocation to stocks in the long run is still generally smaller.

Studying the effect of regime switching behavior in returns on the optimal portfolio choice with parameter uncertainty is our main contribution.

The purpose of this study is to create a value variation measurement model to define the relationship among various roles in resource management within a service system; and divide value creation into two states (i.e. cocreation and codestruction) and use them as crucial indicators for value variation by adopting the service-dominant logic and using the Markov switching model.

This study proposed that variations in value are similar to changes in economy because both are abstract, indefinable and not easy to identify. Therefore, this study used the Markov switching model to define the state of value through value cocreation and codestruction; analyze value variations in a service system; and provide a numerical evaluation method by using the concept of probability to depict state transitions. In addition, open data from the Kaohsiung City Government’s 1999 call center were collected to address the aforementioned research objectives. The 1999 call center (service provider) offers citizens (customers) efficient consultant services to help them solve problems regarding the city government’s affairs or policies. Thus, this call center can be considered a complex service system.

This study revealed that the call center can utilize the analysis results of the Markov switching model on answer rates to predict service quality patterns. In addition, most first call resolution rates occurred under State 1 (value cocreation). To address problems caused by accidental or rare events, the call center should formulate policies to increase people and technical resources and improve service system effectiveness.

Enterprises currently focus on catering to customers’ needs and offering services through comprehensive service procedures to sustainably generate multiple values for customers, helping them to create values. Previous studies have mostly focused on analyzing the values of a service system and have failed to extensively explore actual value variations. Thus, the value variation measurement model proposed in the present study was able to analyze value variations of a set of call center data and illustrate value variations by using state transitions.

Recent surges in inflation have posed significant challenges for Türkiye, with the annualinflation rate culminating at 83.45% by the close of 2022. The purpose of the study is to take a closer look at the details behind the rising inflation trend in Türkiye.

Due to the time-varying nature of the relationship of the variables, dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic (DCC-GARCH) models and the Markov switching model are used as analytical tools. Leveraging the DCC methodology proposed by Tse and Tsui (2002), this study examined time-varying correlations, while the effect of the weighted sum of past correlations was captured using the DCC-GARCH approach introduced by Engle (2002).

The findings from the DCC models highlight that the exchange rate plays the most pivotal role in influencing inflation, closely followed by the money supply. In addition, the Markov switching analysis, rooted in the Phillips curve concept, identified two statistically significant regimes. The results emphasize that components of the money supply and the exchange rate stand out as primary drivers of Türkiye’s heightened inflation rates. To promote sustainable development in Turkey, the Central Bank should focus on inflation targeting, managing the money supply to align with GDP growth and adopting adaptive inflation responses.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to use a combination of the DCC and Markov switching models to examine Turkish inflation from December 2005 to October 2022, according to a thorough review of previous research. Such an innovative method provides a new perspective on inflationary patterns throughout this time. In addition, this study departs from traditional approaches by including money supply measures in the analysis.

The purpose of this paper is to provide an extensive review of the monetary model of exchange rate determination which is the main theoretical framework on analyzing exchange rate behavior over the last 40 years. Furthermore, we test the flexible price monetarist variant and the sticky price Keynesian variant of the monetary model. We conduct our analysis employing a sample of 14 advanced economies using annual data spanning the period 1880–2012.

The theoretical background of the paper relies on the monetary model to the exchange rate determination. We provide a thorough econometric analysis using a battery of unit root and cointegration testing techniques. We test the price-flexible monetarist version and the sticky-price version of the model using annual data from 1880 to 2012 for a group of industrialized countries.

We provide strong evidence of the existence of a nonlinear relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals. Therefore, we model the time-varying nature of this relationship by allowing for Markov regime switches for the exchange rate regimes. Modeling exchange rates within this context can be motivated by the fact that the change in regime should be considered as a random event and not predictable. These results show that linearity is rejected in favor of an MS-VECM specification which forms statistically an adequate representation of the data. Two regimes are implied by the model; the one of the estimated regimes describes the monetary model whereas the other matches in most cases the constant coefficient model with wrong signs. Furthermore it is shown that depending on the nominal exchange rate regime in operation, the adjustment to the long run implied by the monetary model of the exchange rate determination came either from the exchange rate or from the monetary fundamentals. Moreover, based on a Regime Classification Measure, we showed that our chosen Markov-switching specification performed well in distinguishing between the two regimes for all cases. Finally, it is shown that fundamentals are not only significant within each regime but are also significant for the switches between the two regimes.

The results are of interest to practitioners and policy makers since understanding the evolution and determination of exchange rates is of crucial importance. Furthermore, our results are linked to forecasting performance of exchange rate models.

The present analysis extends previous analyses on exchange rate determination and it provides further support in favor of the monetary model as a long-run framework to understand the evolution of exchange rates.

This study aims to analyze the impact of the crude oil market on the Toronto Stock Exchange Index (TSX).

The focus is on detecting nonlinear relationship based on monthly data from 1970 to 2021 using Markov-switching vector auto regression (VAR) model.

The results indicate that TSX return contains two regimes: positive return (Regime 1), when growth rate of stock index is positive; and negative return (Regime 2), when growth rate of stock index is negative. Moreover, Regime 1 is more volatile than Regime 2. The findings also show the crude oil market has a negative effect on the stock market in Regime 1, while it has a positive effect on the stock market in Regime 2. In addition, the authors can see this effect in Regime 1 more significantly in comparison to Regime 2. Furthermore, two-period lag of oil price decreases stock return in Regime 1, while it increases stock return in Regime 2.

This study aims to address the effect of oil market fluctuation on TSX index using Markov-switching approach and capture the nonlinearities between them. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study to assess the effect of the oil market on TSX in different regimes using Markov-switching VAR model. Because Canada is the sixth-largest producer and exporter of oil in the world as well as the TSX as the Canada’s main stock exchange is the tenth-largest stock exchange in the world by market capitalization, this paper’s framework to analyze a nonlinear relationship between oil market and the stock market of Canada helps stock market players like policymakers, institutional investors and private investors to get a better understanding of the real world.

This paper aims at examining the co-movement dependent regime and causality relationships between conventional and Islamic returns for emerging, frontier and developed markets from November 2008 to August 2020.

First, the authors used the Markov-switching autoregression (MS–AR) model to capture the regime-switching behavior in the stock market returns. Second, the authors applied the Markov-switching regression and vector autoregression (MS-VAR) models in order to study, respectively, the co-movement and causality relationship between returns of conventional and Islamic indexes across market states.

Results show the presence of two different regimes for the three studied markets, namely, stability and crisis periods. Also, the authors found evidence of a co-movement relationship between the conventional and Islamic indexes for the three studied markets whatever the regime. For the Granger causality, it is proved only for emerging and developed markets and only during the stability regime. Finally, the authors conclude that Islamic indexes can act as diversifiers, or safe-haven assets are not strongly supported.

This paper is the first study that examines the co-movement and the causal relationship between conventional and Islamic indexes not only across different financial markets' regimes but also during the COVID-19 period. The findings may help investors in making educated decisions about whether or not to add Islamic indexes to their portfolios especially during the recent outbreak.

Recently, there has been much progress in developing Markov switching stochastic volatility (MSSV) models for financial time series. Several studies consider various MSSV specifications and document superior forecasting power for volatility compared to the popular generalized autoregressive heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. However, their application to option pricing remains limited, partially due to the lack of convenient closed-form option pricing formulas which integrate MSSV volatility estimates. We develop such a closed-form option pricing formula and the corresponding hedging strategy for a broad class of MSSV models. We then present an example of application to two of the most popular MSSV models: Markov switching multifractal (MSM) and component-driven regime switching (CDRS) models. Our results establish that these models perform well in one-day-ahead forecasts of option prices.

The aim of this study was to determine if there are asymmetries in the pass-through of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to its derivatives (diesel and gasoline) in the Brazilian market.

Initially, the future WTI oil price series was analyzed using the self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) and logistic smooth transition autoregressive (LSTAR) non-linear models. Subsequently, the threshold autoregressive error-correction model (TAR-ECM) and Markov-switching model were used.

The findings indicated high prices throughout 2008 due to the subprime crisis. The findings indicated high prices throughout 2008 due to the subprime crisis. The results indicated that there is long-term pass-through of oil prices in both methods, suggesting an equilibrium adjustment in the prices of diesel and gasoline in the analyzed period. Regarding the short term, the variations in contemporary crude oil prices have positive effects on the variations in fuel prices. Lastly, this behavior can partly be explained by the internal price management structure adopted during almost all of the analyzed period.

This paper contributes to the literature at some points. The first contribution is the modeling of the oil price series through non-linear models, further enriching the literature on the recent behavior of this time series. The second is the simultaneous use of the TAR-ECM and Markov-switching model to capture possible short- and long-term asymmetries in the pass-through of prices, as few studies have applied these methods to the future price of oil. The third and main contribution is the investigation of whether there are asymmetries in the transfer of oil prices to the price of derivatives in Brazil. So far, no work has investigated this issue, which is very relevant to the country.

I survey applications of Markov switching models to the asset pricing and portfolio choice literatures. In particular, I discuss the potential that Markov switching models have to fit financial time series and at the same time provide powerful tools to test hypotheses formulated in the light of financial theories, and to generate positive economic value, as measured by risk-adjusted performances, in dynamic asset allocation applications. The chapter also reviews the role of Markov switching dynamics in modern asset pricing models in which the no-arbitrage principle is used to characterize the properties of the fundamental pricing measure in the presence of regimes.