Harald Kinateder and Niklas Wagner
– The paper aims to model multiple-period market risk forecasts under long memory persistence in market volatility.
Abstract
Purpose
The paper aims to model multiple-period market risk forecasts under long memory persistence in market volatility.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper proposes volatility forecasts based on a combination of the GARCH(1,1)-model with potentially fat-tailed and skewed innovations and a long memory specification of the slowly declining influence of past volatility shocks. As the square-root-of-time rule is known to be mis-specified, the GARCH setting of Drost and Nijman is used as benchmark model. The empirical study of equity market risk is based on daily returns during the period January 1975 to December 2010. The out-of-sample accuracy of VaR predictions is studied for 5, 10, 20 and 60 trading days.
Findings
The long memory scaling approach remarkably improves VaR forecasts for the longer horizons. This result is only in part due to higher predicted risk levels. Ex post calibration to equal unconditional VaR levels illustrates that the approach also enhances efficiency in allocating VaR capital through time.
Practical implications
The improved VaR forecasts show that one should account for long memory when calibrating risk models.
Originality/value
The paper models single-period returns rather than choosing the simpler approach of modeling lower-frequency multiple-period returns for long-run volatility forecasting. The approach considers long memory in volatility and has two main advantages: it yields a consistent set of volatility predictions for various horizons and VaR forecasting accuracy is improved.
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– The paper aims to analyse the drivers of changes in European equity tail risk.
Abstract
Purpose
The paper aims to analyse the drivers of changes in European equity tail risk.
Design/methodology/approach
For this purpose, the paper uses a panel data model with fixed effects based on five explanatory variables including the VIX, the variance risk premium (VRP), the one-year lagged slope of the riskless term-structure, the default spread and market-specific illiquidity via the measure of Bao et al. (2011). The study analyses a comprehensive database of representative European equity indices from February 2003 to December 2013. The database just contains markets of euro member states to avoid biases due to different currencies. To measure equity tail risk, the ex post realized value-at-risk was used.
Findings
There is empirical evidence that the VIX, the VRP and the default spread are key determinants of equity tail risk changes across all markets. Moreover, the results reveal that market-specific illiquidity is an important determinant in PIIGS markets and the one-year lagged term-structure slope in core markets. The analysis also documents that market-specific risk premia are a relevant determinant of equity tail risk changes. Another finding is that risk premia in PIIGS markets are basically higher as in core markets, which reflect the higher risk involved in investing in PIIGS markets.
Originality/value
The paper offers a unique perspective on equity tail risk in aggregate equity markets and helps both investors and risk managers to get a comprehensive understanding of relevant drivers.
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Pablo Agnese, Pedro Garcia del Barrio, Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana and Fernando Perez de Gracia
The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of persistence in four precious metal prices (i.e. gold, palladium, platinum and silver) during the last four US recessions.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree of persistence in four precious metal prices (i.e. gold, palladium, platinum and silver) during the last four US recessions.
Design/methodology/approach
Using daily price data for gold, palladium, platinum and silver running from July 2, 1990, to March 21, 2022, and dating of business cycles in the USA provided by NBER (2022), the paper uses fractional integration to test the degree of persistence of precious metal prices.
Findings
The empirical analysis shows the unrelenting prominence of gold in relation to other precious metals (palladium, platinum and silver) as a hedge against market uncertainty in the post-pandemic new era.
Originality/value
Two are the main contributions of the paper. Firstly, the authors contribute to the commodity markets and finance literature on precious metal price modelling. Secondly, the authors also contribute to the literature on commodity markets and business cycles with a special focus on recessionary periods.
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Florin Aliu, Simona Hašková and Ujkan Q. Bajra
The stability of exchange rates facilitates international trade, diminishes portfolio risk, and ensures that economic policies are effective. The war in Ukraine is showing that…
Abstract
Purpose
The stability of exchange rates facilitates international trade, diminishes portfolio risk, and ensures that economic policies are effective. The war in Ukraine is showing that the European financial system is still fragile to external shocks. This paper examines the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on five Euro exchange rates. The final goal is to empirically test whether the ruble caused the euro to depreciate with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Design/methodology/approach
The exchange rates analyzed are Euro/Russian Ruble, Euro/US Dollar, Euro/Japanese Yen, Euro/British Pound, and Euro/Chinese Yuan. The data collected are daily and cover the period from November 1, 2021, to May 1, 2022. In this context, the changes in the FX rates reflect two months of the ongoing war in Ukraine. The FX rates used in the study contain 137 observations indicating five months of daily series.
Findings
The results from impulse response function, variance decomposition, SVAR, and VECM indicate that the EUR/RUB significantly influenced the Euro devaluation. On the other side, the FX rates used in our work altogether hold long-run cointegration. The situation is different in the short run, where only EUR/RUB, EUR/USD, and EUR/CNY possess significant relations with other parities.
Originality/value
The Ruble is not among hard currencies, but its position strengthened during this period due to the importance of Russian gas to the Eurozone. The results indicate that even weak currencies can be influential depending on the geopolitical and economic situation. To this end, diversification remains a valid concept not only in portfolio construction but also for the preservation of the national economy.
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Enrique Izquierdo-Cervera and Francisco Sogorb-Mira
The purpose of this study is to analyse the impact of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) on Spanish sovereign debt.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to analyse the impact of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Public Sector Purchase Programme (PSPP) on Spanish sovereign debt.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors assess the impact of the PSPP on Spanish Government bonds from two different transmission channels (the signalling and the portfolio substitution) with two effects for each of them (the announcement and the expectation effects for the former and the stock and the rebalancing effects for the latter). The empirical study has been undertaken with event study methodology, controlled by macroeconomic variables, panel data and cross-sectional regression analyses.
Findings
The results show that both the ECB’s purchases under the PSPP and the announcements reduced Spanish Government bond yields. Compared to previous literature the Spanish Government bond yields reductions are larger than those for other countries.
Research limitations/implications
The authors’ approach to the impact of investors’ expectations is interesting, although they cannot draw evidence on this issue due to the lack of data.
Practical implications
From an economic perspective, the ECB can change economic agents’ expectations without actually carrying out any programme, only by announcing such a programme.
Originality/value
This paper contributes to the literature examining the PSPP from different transmission channels in Spain, taking into account the announcements, the expectations, the purchases and the variation in debt holdings relating to the PSPP from the beginning of the programme until 2020. Due to the large degree of heterogeneity across euro area countries, the results in this paper should improve our understanding of the relative differences in the impact of the PSPP and, thus, be of interest to academics and policymakers.
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Shailendra Singh, Mahesh Sarva and Nitin Gupta
The purpose of this paper is to systematically analyze the literature around regulatory compliance and market manipulation in capital markets through the use of bibliometrics and…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to systematically analyze the literature around regulatory compliance and market manipulation in capital markets through the use of bibliometrics and propose future research directions. Under the domain of capital markets, this theme is a niche area of research where greater academic investigations are required. Most of the research is fragmented and limited to a few conventional aspects only. To address this gap, this study engages in a large-scale systematic literature review approach to collect and analyze the research corpus in the post-2000 era.
Design/methodology/approach
The big data corpus comprising research articles has been extracted from the scientific Scopus database and analyzed using the VoSviewer application. The literature around the subject has been presented using bibliometrics to give useful insights on the most popular research work and articles, top contributing journals, authors, institutions and countries leading to identification of gaps and potential research areas.
Findings
Based on the review, this study concludes that, even in an era of global market integration and disruptive technological advancements, many important aspects of this subject remain significantly underexplored. Over the past two decades, research has lagged behind the evolution of capital market crime and market regulations. Finally, based on the findings, the study suggests important future research directions as well as a few research questions. This includes market manipulation, market regulations and new-age technologies, all of which could be very useful to researchers in this field and generate key inputs for stock market regulators.
Research limitations/implications
The limitation of this research is that it is based on Scopus database so the possibility of omission of some literature cannot be completely ruled out. More advanced machine learning techniques could be applied to decode the finer aspects of the studies undertaken so far.
Practical implications
Increased integration among global markets, fast-paced technological disruptions and complexity of financial crimes in stock markets have put immense pressure on market regulators. As economies and equity markets evolve, good research investigations can aid in a better understanding of market manipulation and regulatory compliance. The proposed research directions will be very useful to researchers in this field as well as generate key inputs for stock market regulators to deal with market misbehavior.
Originality/value
This study has adopted a period-wise broad-based scientific approach to identify some of the most pertinent gaps in the subject and has proposed practical areas of study to strengthen the literature in the said field.
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Salem Adel Ziadat and David G. McMillan
This study aims to examine the links between oil price shocks and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets from February 2004 to December 2019. Knowledge of such links is…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the links between oil price shocks and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock markets from February 2004 to December 2019. Knowledge of such links is important to both investors and policymakers in understanding the transmission of shocks across markets.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use the Ready (2018) oil price decomposition method and the quantile regression approach to conduct the analysis.
Findings
Initial results show a positive oil price change increases stock returns, while greater volatility decreases returns. The oil shock decomposition results reveal a significant positive impact of supply-side shocks on stocks. This contrasts with the literature that argues demand-side shocks are more important. While factors such as liquidity and the lack of hedging instruments can increase the vulnerability of GCC equities to oil price shocks, the result reflects the unique economic structure of the GCC bloc, notably, marked by dependency on oil revenues. In analysing quantile-based results, oil supply shocks mainly exhibit lower-tail dependence, while the authors do uncover some evidence of demand-side shocks affecting mid and upper-tail dependence.
Originality/value
Acknowledging the presence of endogeneity in the relation between oil and economic activity, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to combine the oil price decompositions of Ready (2018) with a quantile regression framework in the GCC context. The results reveal notable difference to those previously reported in the literature.