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Article
Publication date: 19 February 2018

Muhammad T. Hatamleh, Mohammed Hiyassat, Ghaleb Jalil Sweis and Rateb Jalil Sweis

Cost estimating process is an important element within the project life cycle. Comprehensive information, expanded knowledge, considerable expertise, and continuous improvement…

4785

Abstract

Purpose

Cost estimating process is an important element within the project life cycle. Comprehensive information, expanded knowledge, considerable expertise, and continuous improvement are needed to obtain accurate cost estimation. The purpose of this paper is to identify the critical factors that affect accuracy of cost estimation and evaluate the degree to which these factors are important from contractors’ and consultants’ viewpoints.

Design/methodology/approach

Qualitative and quantitative research approaches were adopted in collecting and analyzing the data, and testing the hypotheses. Based on the literature review, a questionnaire was prepared and then was modified according to the results of face-to-face open-ended interviews conducted with 11 project managers. The final version of the questionnaire was distributed to a random sample of 265 respondents. For analyzing the collected data Kendall’s and Mann-Whitney tests were conducted.

Findings

The analysis revealed that there is a strong agreement between contractors and consultants in the ranking of the factors related to consultant, contractor, design parameters, and information. A slightly weak agreement between contractors and consultants was noted regarding the factors related to market conditions (external factors) and factors related to project characteristics. Furthermore, the results show that the top ten factors affecting the accuracy of cost estimate are clear and detail drawings and specification, pricing experience of construction projects, perception of estimation importance, equipment (cost/availability/performance), project complexity, clear scope definition, accuracy and reliability of cost information, site constraints (access, storage, services), material availability, financial capabilities of the client, and availability of database of bids on similar project (historical data).

Originality/value

Offers an original view of the concept of accuracy of cost estimates as it relates to the efficiency of the project relying on both literature review and empirical evidence.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 25 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

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Article
Publication date: 17 September 2018

Jesper Normann Asmussen, Jesper Kristensen and Brian Vejrum Wæhrens

The purpose of this paper is to investigate how management attention and supply chain complexity affect the decision-making process and cost estimation accuracy of supply chain…

1118

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate how management attention and supply chain complexity affect the decision-making process and cost estimation accuracy of supply chain design (SCD) decisions.

Design/methodology/approach

The research follows an embedded case study design. Through the lens of the behavioural theory of the firm, the SCD decision process and realised outcomes are investigated through longitudinal data collection across ten embedded cases with varying degrees of supply chain decision-making complexity and management attention.

Findings

The findings suggest that as supply chain decision-making complexity increases, cost estimation accuracy decreases. The extent to which supply chain decision-making complexity is readily recognised influences the selection of strategies for information search and analysis and, thus, impacts resulting cost estimation errors. The paper further shows the importance of management attention for cost estimation accuracy, especially management attention based on conflicting goals induce behaviours that improve estimation ability.

Research limitations/implications

A framework proposing a balance between supply chain decision-making complexity and management attention in SCD decisions is proposed. However, as an embedded case study the research would benefit from replication to externally validate results.

Originality/value

The method used in this study can identify how supply chain complexity is related to cost estimation errors and how management attention is associated with behaviours that improve cost estimation accuracy, indicating the importance of management attention in complex supply chain decision-making.

Details

International Journal of Physical Distribution & Logistics Management, vol. 48 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0960-0035

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Article
Publication date: 27 December 2022

Bright Awuku, Eric Asa, Edmund Baffoe-Twum and Adikie Essegbey

Challenges associated with ensuring the accuracy and reliability of cost estimation of highway construction bid items are of significant interest to state highway transportation…

594

Abstract

Purpose

Challenges associated with ensuring the accuracy and reliability of cost estimation of highway construction bid items are of significant interest to state highway transportation agencies. Even with the existing research undertaken on the subject, the problem of inaccurate estimation of highway bid items still exists. This paper aims to assess the accuracy of the cost estimation methods employed in the selected studies to provide insights into how well they perform empirically. Additionally, this research seeks to identify, synthesize and assess the impact of the factors affecting highway unit prices because they affect the total cost of highway construction costs.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper systematically searched, selected and reviewed 105 papers from Scopus, Google Scholar, American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE), Transportation Research Board (TRB) and Science Direct (SD) on conceptual cost estimation of highway bid items. This study used content and nonparametric statistical analyses to determine research trends, identify, categorize the factors influencing highway unit prices and assess the combined performance of conceptual cost prediction models.

Findings

Findings from the trend analysis showed that between 1983 and 2019 North America, Asia, Europe and the Middle East contributed the most to improving highway cost estimation research. Aggregating the quantitative results and weighting the findings using each study's sample size revealed that the average error between the actual and the estimated project costs of Monte-Carlo simulation models (5.49%) performed better compared to the Bayesian model (5.95%), support vector machines (6.03%), case-based reasoning (11.69%), artificial neural networks (12.62%) and regression models (13.96%). This paper identified 41 factors and was grouped into three categories, namely: (1) factors relating to project characteristics; (2) organizational factors and (3) estimate factors based on the common classification used in the selected papers. The mean ranking analysis showed that most of the selected papers used project-specific factors more when estimating highway construction bid items than the other factors.

Originality/value

This paper contributes to the body of knowledge by analyzing and comparing the performance of highway cost estimation models, identifying and categorizing a comprehensive list of cost drivers to stimulate future studies in improving highway construction cost estimates.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 31 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

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Article
Publication date: 17 January 2023

Jintao Yu, Xican Li, Shuang Cao and Fajun Liu

In order to overcome the uncertainty and improve the accuracy of spectral estimation, this paper aims to establish a grey fuzzy prediction model of soil organic matter content by…

138

Abstract

Purpose

In order to overcome the uncertainty and improve the accuracy of spectral estimation, this paper aims to establish a grey fuzzy prediction model of soil organic matter content by using grey theory and fuzzy theory.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on the data of 121 soil samples from Zhangqiu district and Jiyang district of Jinan City, Shandong Province, firstly, the soil spectral data are transformed by spectral transformation methods, and the spectral estimation factors are selected according to the principle of maximum correlation. Then, the generalized greyness of interval grey number is used to modify the estimation factors of modeling samples and test samples to improve the correlation. Finally, the hyper-spectral prediction model of soil organic matter is established by using the fuzzy recognition theory, and the model is optimized by adjusting the fuzzy classification number, and the estimation accuracy of the model is evaluated using the mean relative error and the determination coefficient.

Findings

The results show that the generalized greyness of interval grey number can effectively improve the correlation between soil organic matter content and estimation factors, and the accuracy of the proposed model and test samples are significantly improved, where the determination coefficient R2 = 0.9213 and the mean relative error (MRE) = 6.3630% of 20 test samples. The research shows that the grey fuzzy prediction model proposed in this paper is feasible and effective, and provides a new way for hyper-spectral estimation of soil organic matter content.

Practical implications

The research shows that the grey fuzzy prediction model proposed in this paper can not only effectively deal with the three types of uncertainties in spectral estimation, but also realize the correction of estimation factors, which is helpful to improve the accuracy of modeling estimation. The research result enriches the theory and method of soil spectral estimation, and it also provides a new idea to deal with the three kinds of uncertainty in the prediction problem by using the three kinds of uncertainty theory.

Originality/value

The paper succeeds in realizing both the grey fuzzy prediction model for hyper-spectral estimating soil organic matter content and effectively dealing with the randomness, fuzziness and grey uncertainty in spectral estimation.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 13 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

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Article
Publication date: 3 September 2021

Harish Kumar Singla and Srividhya Sridharan

Previous studies have highlighted that overheads form a critical part of the total project cost. However, despite this knowledge, the precise estimation of overheads is often…

430

Abstract

Purpose

Previous studies have highlighted that overheads form a critical part of the total project cost. However, despite this knowledge, the precise estimation of overheads is often neglected in construction projects. This paper aims to examine the reasons for the lack of effort in estimation of overheads.

Design/methodology/approach

The study is carried out in three stages. In stage one, an introductory survey is carried to understand the importance of overheads in total project cost. In stage two, a detailed survey is carried out to understand the factors that affect the level of accuracy and compromise made in estimation of overheads using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). In the final stage, two cases are examined in form of interviews to validate the findings. The model is tested for its reliability, validity and goodness of fit.

Findings

The findings of the study suggest that the time and cost spent is a critical issue. Therefore, if the projects feel that the benefit cost ratio for time and cost spend in the process is positive, they estimate the overheads accurately, whereas if they feel that the cost benefit ratio for time and cost spend is negative, they compromise with accurate estimation. Further, there is a lot of subjectivity in defining and processing overheads that leads to a negative impact on the accuracy level in estimation of overheads. The contract type also influences the compromise in estimation.

Research limitations/implications

First, there is scant work that has been carried out on understanding the behavior of overheads and reasons for lack of effort in its accurate estimation in construction projects. Therefore, there are no recent citations in the study. Further, the study being exploratory in nature draws conclusions based on opinion expressed by respondents on survey and interview. Finally, the study is geographically limited as the entire respondent's work in India.

Practical implications

Projects should give due attention to accurate estimation of overheads. Accurate estimation of overheads can help in better control of project margins, thereby serving the profit-maximizing goals of organizations. A conscious effort by industry experts, academicians and researchers can bring some discipline in overhead estimation rather than leaving the critical domain only to thumb rules or experiential assumptions. The regulatory bodies and the project management bodies are advised to come up with some kind of ready reference that can quickly help estimators to arrive at accurate overhead costs.

Originality/value

To the best of knowledge, it is a rare study to exclusively focus on project overhead cost in construction industry and focus on its estimation efforts. The study also uses a robust research process, which improves the reliability and validity of its findings.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. 29 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

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Article
Publication date: 4 March 2025

Hossam Mohamed Toma, Ahmed Nagy Abdelazim and Ahmed H. Ibrahim

The cost and duration estimation process is important to be monitored and controlled in construction projects. Estimation variation from actuals presents a problem when attempting…

39

Abstract

Purpose

The cost and duration estimation process is important to be monitored and controlled in construction projects. Estimation variation from actuals presents a problem when attempting to complete a project on planned time and budget. Various studies cover project performance monitoring with different cost and time performance indices. Nevertheless, project monitoring techniques do not take advantage of the available data to assess the performance and accuracy of estimates developed by the estimation team.

Design/methodology/approach

This research proposes using statistical process control (SPC) to assess the consistency and stability of the estimation of activities’ costs and durations. The proposed system calculates the deviation of the estimated costs and durations from the actual values. These calculations are the activities’ indices that are used to plot the control chart. The process capability analysis (PCA) is used to determine the accuracy deviation of the estimations from the organization’s targets.

Findings

Results of the proposed system application to a real project determine the activities that have inaccurate cost and duration estimations. This result helps the estimation departments to analyze reasons for inaccurate estimations. The proposed system is an easy, effective tool for continuous improvement to the performance of the estimation department.

Originality/value

Some projects are classified as troubled projects when calculating the status of the project with reference to estimations, while the estimations themselves are troubled and need to be corrected. The proposed system of this paper is considered a novel approach by using SPC techniques such as control charts and process capability analysis for continuous monitoring and assessing of cost and duration estimation process performance to improve process accuracy and increase the credibility of estimation teams or departments.

Details

Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0969-9988

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Article
Publication date: 8 May 2024

Lu Xu, Shuang Cao and Xican Li

In order to explore a new estimation approach of hyperspectral estimation, this paper aims to establish a hyperspectral estimation model of soil organic matter content with the…

138

Abstract

Purpose

In order to explore a new estimation approach of hyperspectral estimation, this paper aims to establish a hyperspectral estimation model of soil organic matter content with the principal gradient grey information based on the grey information theory.

Design/methodology/approach

Firstly, the estimation factors are selected by transforming the spectral data. The eigenvalue matrix of the modelling samples is converted into grey information matrix by using the method of increasing information and taking large, and the principal gradient grey information of modelling samples is calculated by using the method of pro-information interpolation and straight-line interpolation, respectively, and the hyperspectral estimation model of soil organic matter content is established. Then, the positive and inverse grey relational degree are used to identify the principal gradient information quantity of the test samples corresponding to the known patterns, and the cubic polynomial method is used to optimize the principal gradient information quantity for improving estimation accuracy. Finally, the established model is used to estimate the soil organic matter content of Zhangqiu and Jiyang District of Jinan City, Shandong Province.

Findings

The results show that the model has the higher estimation accuracy, among the average relative error of 23 test samples is 5.7524%, and the determination coefficient is 0.9002. Compared with the commonly used methods such as multiple linear regression, support vector machine and BP neural network, the hyperspectral estimation accuracy of soil organic matter content is significantly improved. The application example shows that the estimation model proposed in this paper is feasible and effective.

Practical implications

The estimation model in this paper not only fully excavates and utilizes the internal grey information of known samples with “insufficient and incomplete information”, but also effectively overcomes the randomness and grey uncertainty in the spectral estimation. The research results not only enrich the grey system theory and methods, but also provide a new approach for hyperspectral estimation of soil properties such as soil organic matter content, water content and so on.

Originality/value

The paper succeeds in realizing both a new hyperspectral estimation model of soil organic matter content based on the principal gradient grey information and effectively dealing with the randomness and grey uncertainty in spectral estimation.

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Article
Publication date: 14 July 2023

Guozhi Xu, Xican Li and Hong Che

In order to improve the estimation accuracy of soil organic matter, this paper aims to establish a modified model for hyperspectral estimation of soil organic matter content based…

139

Abstract

Purpose

In order to improve the estimation accuracy of soil organic matter, this paper aims to establish a modified model for hyperspectral estimation of soil organic matter content based on the positive and inverse grey relational degrees.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on 82 soil sample data collected in Daiyue District, Tai'an City, Shandong Province, firstly, the spectral data of soil samples are transformed by the first order differential and logarithmic reciprocal first order differential and so on, the correlation coefficients between the transformed spectral data and soil organic matter content are calculated, and the estimation factors are selected according to the principle of maximum correlation. Secondly, the positive and inverse grey relational degree model is used to identify the samples to be identified, and the initial estimated values of the organic matter content are obtained. Finally, based on the difference information between the samples to be identified and their corresponding known patterns, a modified model for the initial estimation of soil organic matter content is established, and the estimation accuracy of the model is evaluated using the mean relative error and the determination coefficient.

Findings

The results show that the methods of logarithmic reciprocal first order differential and the first-order differential of the square root for transforming the original spectral data are more effective, which could significantly improve the correlation between soil organic matter content and spectral data. The modified model for hyperspectral estimation of soil organic matter has high estimation accuracy, the average relative error (MRE) of 11 test samples is 4.091%, and the determination coefficient (R2) is 0.936. The estimation precision is higher than that of linear regression model, BP neural network and support vector machine model. The application examples show that the modified model for hyperspectral estimation of soil organic matter content based on positive and inverse grey relational degree proposed in this article is feasible and effective.

Social implications

The model in this paper has clear mathematical and physics meaning, simple calculation and easy programming. The model not only fully excavates and utilizes the internal information of known pattern samples with “insufficient and incomplete information”, but also effectively overcomes the randomness and grey uncertainty in the spectral estimation of soil organic matter. The research results not only enrich the grey system theory and methods, but also provide a new approach for hyperspectral estimation of soil properties such as soil organic matter content, water content and so on.

Originality/value

The paper succeeds in realizing both a modified model for hyperspectral estimation of soil organic matter based on the positive and inverse grey relational degrees and effectively dealing with the randomness and grey uncertainty in spectral estimation.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 13 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 1 February 2016

Ayedh Alqahtani and Andrew Whyte

The purpose of this paper is to compare the performance of regression and artificial-neural-networks (ANNs) methods to estimate the running cost of building projects towards…

945

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to compare the performance of regression and artificial-neural-networks (ANNs) methods to estimate the running cost of building projects towards improved accuracy.

Design/methodology/approach

A data set of 20 building projects is used to test the performance of these two (ANNs/regression) models in estimating running cost. The concept of cost-significant-items is identified as important in assisting estimation. In addition, a stepwise technique is used to eliminate insignificant factors in regression modelling. A connection weight method is applied to determine the importance of cost factors in the performance of ANNs.

Findings

The results illustrate that the value of the coefficient of determination=99.75 per cent for ANNs model(s), with a value of 98.1 per cent utilising multiple regression (MR) model(s); second, the mean percentage error (MPE) for ANNs at a testing stage is 0.179, which is less than that of the MPE gained through MR modelling of 1.28; and third, the average accuracy is 99 per cent for ANNs model(s) and 97 per cent for MR model(s). On the basis of these results, it is concluded that an ANNs model is superior to a MR model when predicting running cost of building projects.

Research limitations/implications

A means for continuous improvement for the performance of the models accuracy has been established; this may be further enhanced by future extended sample.

Originality/value

This work extends the knowledge base of life-cycle estimation where ANNs method has been found to reduce preparation time consumed and increasing accuracy improvement of the cost estimation.

Details

Built Environment Project and Asset Management, vol. 6 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-124X

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Article
Publication date: 19 June 2020

Opeoluwa Akinradewo, Clinton Aigbavboa and Ayodeji Oke

Preparation of preliminary estimate is difficult owing to the lack of full project details in the early phases of the construction project. This paper seeks to assess the…

408

Abstract

Purpose

Preparation of preliminary estimate is difficult owing to the lack of full project details in the early phases of the construction project. This paper seeks to assess the estimation techniques used for road projects and the critical factors affecting their accuracy in the Ghanaian construction industry.

Design/methodology/approach

Quantitative research design was adopted and questionnaire was designed to retrieve data. The target population were engineers and quantity surveyors who were contacted using an e-questionnaire through their professional bodies owing to location constraints. Retrieved data were analysed using descriptive and exploratory factor analysis. In order to compare the opinions of the respondents, the Mann–Whitney U-test was employed.

Findings

The survey revealed that subjective, parametric, comparative and analytical estimations are in use in Ghana. The most critical factors influencing the accuracy of estimation techniques are improper project planning, insufficient preliminary site investigation and usage of shortcuts, among others.

Research limitations/implications

This study was limited to Accra, Ghana, due to time and distance constraint.

Practical implications

For accuracy of preliminary estimates to be improved, estimators being the custodian of the estimate are expected to be devoid of errors such as arithmetic calculation errors, inaccurate quantity measurement and error of omission. The usage of estimating software can eliminate these human errors.

Originality/value

The study will assist policymakers and stakeholders in aligning mitigative actions for factors influencing preliminary estimate of road projects with defined clusters rather than basic ranks. With attention focussed on the characteristics of each cluster, accuracy of preliminary estimate can be improved.

Details

Built Environment Project and Asset Management, vol. 10 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-124X

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