Lucia Luce Quinn and David H. Mason
This case study of scenario planning at Digital shows how top management uses the process for testing, probing, pushing, and provoking strategic thinking about the future. Middle…
Abstract
This case study of scenario planning at Digital shows how top management uses the process for testing, probing, pushing, and provoking strategic thinking about the future. Middle managers find the scenarios helpful for modeling their current businesses.
Scenarios are being used by corporate strategists as tools that adjust managers' mental models to reflect looming changes in their competitive environment. The rules for competing…
Abstract
Scenarios are being used by corporate strategists as tools that adjust managers' mental models to reflect looming changes in their competitive environment. The rules for competing in the market are changing so rapidly that a past‐oriented mental model will lead to wrong decisions. A critical success factor is how fast the whole company—not simply individuals—can learn.
David H. Mason and Robert G. Wilson
We must expect the future to surprise us. Our worst pratfalls occur when we become overly proud of our ability to manage the future. Just when we finally learn to live with…
Abstract
We must expect the future to surprise us. Our worst pratfalls occur when we become overly proud of our ability to manage the future. Just when we finally learn to live with inflation, we're plagued by deflation. The oil price trends of the 1970s caught everyone by surprise, but no sooner did industry invest to conserve, than the glut struck. Government budget deficits have reached staggering proportions, but even the most wide‐eyed optimists didn't forecast inflation rates of just 3–4 percent, and interest rates gradually floating downward.
David H. Mason and James Herman
Scenario development has traditionally been an outward looking process designed to enhance awareness of potential change in the external business environment. A set of techniques…
Abstract
Scenario development has traditionally been an outward looking process designed to enhance awareness of potential change in the external business environment. A set of techniques is presented here for bringing the business and its internal issues directly into the scenario development effort from the beginning. By casting strategies as scenarios, companies can gain many of the benefits of traditional scenario planning while accelerating the strategic decision making for organizations in high change environments.