This study investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the U.S. economy within the confines of causality testing framework. A unidirectional causal flow is established from…
Abstract
This study investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the U.S. economy within the confines of causality testing framework. A unidirectional causal flow is established from nominal GNP to fiscal expenditures and deficits. Further testing of the data indicates that although fiscal policy does not affect real output, it impacts the CPI.
Notes with concern the current negative rate of personal saving in the USA, reviews previous research on factors affecting savings and explores the interrelationships between…
Abstract
Notes with concern the current negative rate of personal saving in the USA, reviews previous research on factors affecting savings and explores the interrelationships between personal savings and the returns on stock and family homes. Develops a mathematical model and applies it to 1980‐2000 data using causality tests, cointegration and error‐correction models. Finds a significant, negative causal relationship from stock returns to savings and a possible positive causal relationship from returns on homes, although the latter was not supported by tri‐variate analysis. Concludes that changes in a household’s stock returns are adjusted through changes in savings.
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Joseph G. Hirschberg, Jeanette N. Lye and Daniel J. Slottje
The estimation of regression models subject to linear restrictions is a widely applied technique; however, aside from simple examples, the equivalence between the linear…
Abstract
The estimation of regression models subject to linear restrictions is a widely applied technique; however, aside from simple examples, the equivalence between the linear restricted case to the reparameterization and the substitution case is rarely employed. We believe this is due to the lack of a general transformation method for changing from the definition of restrictions in terms of the unrestricted parameters to the equivalent reparameterized model and conversely from the reparameterized model to the equivalent linear restrictions for the unrestricted model. In many cases, the reparameterization method is computationally more efficient especially when estimation involves an iterative method. But the linear restriction case allows a simple method for adding and removal of restrictions.
In this chapter, we derive a general relationship that allows the conversion between the two forms of the restricted models. Examples emphasizing systems of demand equations, polynomial lagged equations, and splines are given in which the transformation from one form to the other are demonstrated as well as the combination of both forms of restrictions. In addition, we demonstrate how an alternative Wald test of the restrictions can be constructed using an augmented version of the reparameterized model.
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Theofanis Papageorgiou, Panayotis G. Michaelides and John G. Milios
The purpose of this paper is to deal with questions of instability and economic crises, deriving theoretical arguments from Marx's and Schumpeter's works and presenting relevant…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to deal with questions of instability and economic crises, deriving theoretical arguments from Marx's and Schumpeter's works and presenting relevant empirical evidence for the case of the US food manufacturing sector.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper attempts to interpret the economic fluctuations in the US food sector and find causal relationships between the crucial variables dictated by Schumpeterian and Marxian theory, such as technological change, output and profitability. In this context, a number of relevant techniques have been used, such as de‐trending, cointegration analysis, white noise tests, periodograms, cross‐correlations and Granger causality tests.
Findings
Most economic variables in the food manufacturing sector exhibit a similar pattern characterized by periodicities exhibiting a short‐term cycle, a mid‐term cycle and a long‐term cycle. Also, the economic variables investigated follow patterns which are consistent with the total economy. Furthermore, a relatively rapid transmission of technology in the economy takes place along with bidirectional causality between technology and output/profitability, which can be interpreted as indicating an ambivalent relationship in the flow of cause and effect. These findings give credit to certain aspects of the Schumpeterian and Marxist theories of economic crises, respectively.
Originality/value
This paper contributes to the literature in the following ways: first, it introduces a relevant methodological framework building on Schumpeterian and Marxist insights. Second, it uses several variables to study the economic fluctuations instead of delimiting its analysis, for instance, to industrial output. Third, the results are discussed in a broader political economy context, related to the US economy, as a whole.
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The cornerstone of the government’s adjustment program is to increase the efficiency of private investment and activity by deregulating the economy and promoting competition. The…
Abstract
The cornerstone of the government’s adjustment program is to increase the efficiency of private investment and activity by deregulating the economy and promoting competition. The counterpart of this fundamental strategy is the need to increase the effectiveness of the public sector which in Pakistan had become overextended. To this end, public sector resources and management capacity are being redirected and concentrated in those areas in which public sector intervention is required because of market failures or social objectives. The results obtained strongly suggest that the government’s program is supported by strong empirical evidence. There is no question that private investment has been discouraged by the public capital formation in manufacturing. Not only has government investment in this area stifled the private sector, but also it has diverted funds away from productive activities that would most likely have encouraged a follow‐on expansion in private investment.
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Using the notions of unit root, cointegration theory and Granger‐Akaike’s synthesis of modelling strategy, this paper examines the nature of stationarities, cointegration…
Abstract
Using the notions of unit root, cointegration theory and Granger‐Akaike’s synthesis of modelling strategy, this paper examines the nature of stationarities, cointegration properties and Granger causal relationship between domestic savings and aid based on a sample of 27 developing countries. The KPSS unit root test results indicate that variables of interest in a trivariate vector autoregressive system such as aid inflows, domestic savings and income exhibit a dissimilar trend in the majority of countries, with the exceptions of Bolivia and Korea. The cointegration test results based on the Johansen and Juselius testing procedure found evidence of cointegration among the variables, domestic savings, aid and income in Bolivia and Korea. However, the presence and direction of causality between aid inflows and domestic savings are mixed across countries. Whilst the findings are indicative of a causal independence in a majority of the cases, little support is attached to either Griffin’s dependency hypothesis or Papaneck’s reverse causality hypothesis.
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Dat T Nguyen and Tu Le
This study aims to investigate the interrelationships between charter value and market discipline in five Southeast Asian countries (ASEAN-5).
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate the interrelationships between charter value and market discipline in five Southeast Asian countries (ASEAN-5).
Design/methodology/approach
This research uses a simultaneous equations model with a three-stage least squares estimator for a sample of 79 listed banks from 2006 to 2019.
Findings
The findings show a negative two-way relationship between charter value and market discipline. More specifically, charter value can reduce market discipline. Meanwhile, a negative relationship between market discipline and charter value reemphasizes the significance of market discipline in the banking system to enhance bank charter value. Similar results still hold when using several robustness checks (e.g. subsamples, considering the global financial crisis, governance indicators and market structure).
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first attempt to investigate the bidirectional relationship between bank risk and charter value in ASEAN-5. Therefore, this study would provide significant recommendations for policymakers and practitioners.
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Dat T. Nguyen and Tu Le
The purpose of this study is to examine whether a bidirectional relationship between bank risk and market discipline may exist in Southeast Asia.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to examine whether a bidirectional relationship between bank risk and market discipline may exist in Southeast Asia.
Design/methodology/approach
A simultaneous equations model with a three-stage least squares estimator is used to examine the interrelationships between bank risk and market discipline using a sample of 79 listed banks in five countries in Southeast Asia (ASEAN-5) from 2006 to 2019.
Findings
The findings show a two-way relationship between bank risk and market discipline. In particular, market discipline has a negative impact on bank risk, while there is a positive relationship between bank risk and market discipline. A bidirectional relationship between them still holds when using an alternative measure of bank risk in subsamples, controlling for the global financial crisis and governance indicators.
Practical implications
The findings indicate that market discipline can reduce bank risk. Meanwhile, a positive impact of bank risk on market discipline reemphasizes that market discipline is a powerful tool to ensure banks do not have excessive risk-taking. Nonetheless, the findings suggest that further implementation of market discipline as the third pillar of the Basel framework is necessary for the banking systems in ASEAN-5.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first attempt to investigate the interrelationship between bank risk and market discipline in Southeast Asia.