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The market products produced by Initial Coin Offerings (ICO) platforms are often relatively new and have no previous transaction records and therefore are hard to estimate for its demand. The purpose is to study the impacts of the degree of ambiguity aversion of entrepreneurs to demand uncertainty on the ICO financing ratio, the optimal expected output, the optimal efforts and the token price.

In an optimal ICO design, we introduce demand uncertainty of the product and establish a robust optimization method to solve the ICO optimal design. We compare ICO financing and the general venture capital (VC) financing model. We analyze the impact of demand uncertainty on the optimal ICO financing ratio.

Findings include that the ICO financing ratio is positively related to the degree of ambiguity aversion, the token price is negatively related to the degree of ambiguity aversion and the “ambiguity premium” exists in the ICO market, the optimal effort levels are negatively related with the ICO financing ratio, but positively related with token price, and in the environment of high production cost, VC financing is not as good as ICO financing.

We develop a robust ICO financing model by assuming that the entrepreneur is ambiguity aversive to the demand uncertainty. Analyze the impact of the degree of ambiguity aversion on the ICO financing ratio in theory and find that the entrepreneur can raise funds with the higher ICO token ratio when she has a larger degree of ambiguity aversion to the demand uncertainty. Extend the impact analysis of the degree of ambiguity aversion on the expected token price and find a negative relationship between the expected token price and the degree of ambiguity aversion of the entrepreneur to the demand uncertainty.

Implications of ambiguity for the dynamics of asset prices and wealth distribution are the chief concern of this study.

In a continuous-time stochastic macro setting characterized by heterogeneous agents and financial friction with perfect “skin-in-the-game” for productive agents, we derive analytically and then illustrate numerically how ambiguity aversion would impinge on the agents’ consumption share and precautionary motives, sowing the seeds for asset price misalignment and thereby calling for appropriate policy response.

The agents’ ambiguity-aversion triggers a low real risk-free rate, fewer consumption shares, higher precautionary savings and wealth redistribution, inducing misalignment in asset prices. The distortion entails welfare loss for all agents, making a case for conventional monetary and fiscal policy design and analysis. For a given degree of ambiguity aversion, the dividend and capital value taxations could mitigate the asset price misalignment though causing a welfare loss as they are distortionary in turn. However, conventional monetary policy could lessen the asset price distortion and improve the welfare of at least a subset of agents if it is fine-tuned well.

Characterizations of ambiguity-driven asset price misalignments along with redistributive implications of ambiguity and their reflections for asset price volatility, leverage, welfare and fiscal and monetary policy conduct and analysis are the key contributions of this study.

This paper evaluates potential methods for reducing ambiguity surrounding returns on equity to improve long-term savings decisions.

We evaluate 221 undergraduate students in the US and first assess the degree of ambiguity aversion exhibited by individuals in the sample population as they decide between a risky (known probability) option and ambiguous (unknown probability) option pertaining to their chances of winning $0 or $1 in a hypothetical lottery. Similarly, we test whether sampling historical return data through learning modules influences long-term decision making regarding asset allocation within a retirement portfolio.

Allowing participants to experience the underlying probability through sampling significantly influences behavior, as participants were more likely to select the ambiguous option after sampling. Here, we also find that participants who receive interactive learning modules – which require users to manually alter the asset allocation to produce a sample of historical return data based on the specific allocation entered in the model – increase their post-learning equity allocations by 10.1% more than individuals receiving static modules. Interestingly, we find no significant evidence of ambiguity aversion playing a role in the asset allocation decision.

We find that decision-making related to ambiguous and risky options can be substantially influenced by experiential learning. Our study supplements previous literature, providing a link between research on the effect of ambiguity on stock market participation and implementation of educational programs to improve the asset allocation decision for young adults.

This study investigates insurance demand in a two-period model when a decision-maker (DM) is averse to the ambiguity of loss distributions. This study derives sufficient conditions such that the ambiguity-averse DM purchases more insurance than an ambiguity-neutral one when the DM maximises the expected utility. It also derives each sufficient condition to increase insurance demand as ambiguity aversion, ambiguity and downside ambiguity increase, respectively.

This study analyzes the effect of ambiguity aversion on precautionary effort under a two period model when background risk like income risk is added to loss. Precautionary effort only affects the probability of loss occurrence. The sufficient conditions under which a risk averse and ambiguity averse individual makes more effort than a risk averse and ambiguity neutral one are as follows. First, the distribution of background risk changes in type of first order stochastic dominance. Second, the distribution of background risk changes in type of second order stochastic dominance and the utility function shows prudence. In both cases, AAA (absolute ambiguity aversion) should not increase. That is, AAA denotes DAAA (Decreasing Absolute Ambiguity Aversion) or CAAA (Constant Absolute Ambiguity Aversion). The effect of AAA is not observed in the existing literatures which assume a one-period model. In a one period model, the effect of AAA on precautionary effort of a long term may have ignored. Lastly, precautionary effort increases if and only if AAA is not increasing in cases when the background risk follows binary distribution or an individual is risk neutral and ambiguity averse.

Purpose – This experimental economics study using brain imaging techniques investigates the risk-ambiguity distinction in relation to the source preference hypothesis (Fox & Tversky, 1995) in which identically distributed risks arising from different sources of uncertainty may engender distinct preferences for the same decision maker, contrary to classical economic thinking. The use of brain imaging enables sharper testing of the implications of different models of decision-making including Chew and Sagi's (2008) axiomatization of source preference.

Methodology/approach – Using fMRI, brain activations were observed when subjects make 48 sequential binary choices among even-chance lotteries based on whether the trailing digits of a number of stock prices at market closing would be odd or even. Subsequently, subjects rate familiarity of the stock symbols.

Findings – When contrasting brain activation from more familiar sources with those from less familiar ones, regions appearing to be more active include the putamen, medial frontal cortex, and superior temporal gyrus. ROI analysis showed that the activation patterns in the familiar–unfamiliar and unfamiliar–familiar contrasts are similar to those in the risk–ambiguity and ambiguity–risk contrasts reported by Hsu et al. (2005). This supports the conjecture that the risk-ambiguity distinction can be subsumed by the source preference hypothesis.

Research limitations/implications – Our odd–even design has the advantage of inducing the same “unambiguous” probability of half for each subject in each binary comparison. Our finding supports the implications of the Chew–Sagi model and rejects models based on global probabilistic sophistication, including rank-dependent models derived from non-additive probabilities, e.g., Choquet expected utility and cumulative prospect theory, as well as those based on multiple priors, e.g., α-maxmin. The finding in Hsu et al. (2005) that orbitofrontal cortex lesion patients display neither ambiguity aversion nor risk aversion offers further support to the Chew–Sagi model. Our finding also supports the Levy et al. (2007) contention of a single valuation system encompassing risk and ambiguity aversion.

Originality/value of chapter – This is the first neuroimaging study of the source preference hypothesis using a design which can discriminate among decision models ranging from risk-based ones to those relying on multiple priors.

The study aims to show that ambiguity aversion exerts a non-negligible effect on the investors' decisions, especially due to the possibility of sharp declines in stock prices.

The vast majority of previous studies on life-cycle consumption and asset allocation assume that the equity premium is constant. This study evaluates the impact of rare disasters that shift the stock market to a low return state on investors' consumption and portfolio decisions. The author assumes that investors are averse to ambiguity relative to the current state of the economy and must incur a per period cost to participate in the stock market and solve their optimal consumption and asset allocation problem using dynamic programming.

The results show that most young investors choose not to invest in stocks because they have low accumulated wealth and the potential return from their stock market investments would not cover the participation costs. Furthermore, ambiguity-averse investors hold considerably fewer stocks throughout their lifetime than ambiguity-neutral ones. The fraction of wealth invested in stocks over the typical consumer's life is hump-shaped: it is low for a young individual, peaks at his early 30s and then decreases until his retirement age.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that assesses the impact of negative stock price jumps on the optimal portfolio of an ambiguity-averse investor.

The economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic seriously jeopardized small businesses. To survive, many small businesses turned to their networks by launching crowdfunding “rescue” campaigns, which were very successful in eliciting both funding and community support. This study aims to explain this success from the backers' perspective by addressing support intentions in uncertain times. The authors examine backers' paradoxical behavior by investigating the influence of ambiguity aversion (individual uncertainty), business-level uncertainty and environmental uncertainty on backers' intentions to support small businesses and the interaction of uncertainty with backers' well-being.

Survey data from 230 backers of small business rescue campaigns were analyzed using structural equation modeling.

The findings indicate that ambiguity aversion negatively dominates backers' support intentions. However, under the mediating effect of well-being, business-level and environmental uncertainties positively impact backers' intentions, whereas ambiguity aversion becomes non-significant.

Uncertainties are supposed to have a negative influence on individual well-being. By contrast, this study shows that backers' well-being is influenced by the context of the crowdfunding campaign. Uncertain conditions can provide value in addition to the benefits gained by backers from supporting crowdfunding campaigns.

This study empirically documents the effect of ambiguity on stock returns in a major emerging market along with the ambiguity attitudes under various market conditions.

Ambiguity is measured as the volatility of return probability distributions extracted from high frequency intraday data via a method developed by Brenner and Izhakian (2018). The impact of ambiguity is then tested on stock market returns.

The results show that ambiguity is a priced factor in Turkish stock market with a positive premium that is distinct from risk premium. In contrast with the findings in the US market, the investors in Turkey show an increasing level of ambiguity aversion as expected probability of favorable returns deviate from the mean value. The investors are effectively ambiguity neutral in lateral markets. The results are robust to testing with higher moments, sentiment measures and under recession conditions.

This study contributes to empirically documenting ambiguity and ambiguity aversion in a major emerging market along with the opportunity to observe international differences in ambiguity attitudes.

There has been much discussion regarding the necessity of moving away from precise (rules-based) standards toward less precise (principles-based) standards. This study examines the impact of the proposed shift by using a controlled experiment to evaluate the influence of rule precision and information ambiguity on reporting decisions in the presence of monetary incentives to report aggressively. Using motivated reasoning theory as a framework, we predict that the malleability inherent in both rule precision and information ambiguity amplify biased reasoning in a manner that is consistent with individuals’ pecuniary incentives. In contrast, consistent with research exploring ambiguity aversion we predict that high levels of ambiguity will actually attenuate aggressive reporting. Our results support these predictions. Specifically, we find an interactive effect between rule precision and information ambiguity on self-interested reporting decisions at moderate levels of ambiguity. However, consistent with ambiguity aversion, we find decreased self-interested reporting decisions at high levels of ambiguity relative to moderate ambiguity. This study should be of interest to preparers, auditors, and regulators who are interested in identifying situations which amplify and diminish aggressive reporting.