Muhammad AsadUllah, Muhammad Adnan Bashir and Abdur Rahman Aleemi
The purpose of this study is to examine the accuracy of combined models with the individual models in terms of forecasting Euro against US dollar during COVID-19 era. During…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to examine the accuracy of combined models with the individual models in terms of forecasting Euro against US dollar during COVID-19 era. During COVID, the euro shows sharp fluctuation in upward and downward trend; therefore, this study is keen to find out the best-fitted model which forecasts more accurately during the pandemic.
Design/methodology/approach
The descriptive design has been adopted in this research. The three univariate models, i.e. autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA), Naïve, exponential smoothing (ES) model, and one multivariate model, i.e. nonlinear autoregressive distributive lags (NARDL), are selected to forecast the exchange rate of Euro against the US dollar during the COVID. The above models are combined via equal weights and var-cor methods to find out the accuracy of forecasting as Poon and Granger (2003) showed that combined models can forecast better than individual models.
Findings
NARDL outperforms all remaining individual models, i.e. ARIMA, Naïve and ES. By applying a combination of different models via different techniques, the combination of NARDL and Naïve models outperforms all combination of models by scoring the least mean absolute percentage error value, i.e. 1.588. The combined forecasting of NARDL and Naïve techniques under var-cor method also outperforms the forecasting accuracy of individual models other than NARDL. It means the euro exchange rate against the US dollar which is dependent upon the macroeconomic fundamentals and recent observations of the time series.
Practical implications
The findings could help the FOREX market, hedgers, traders, businessmen, policymakers, economists, financial managers, etc., to minimize the risk indulged in global trade. It also helps to produce more accurate results in different financial models, i.e. capital asset pricing model and arbitrage pricing theory, because their findings may not be useful if exchange rate fluctuations do not trace effectively.
Originality/value
The NARDL models have been applied previously in different time series and only limited to the asymmetric or symmetric relationships. This study is using it for the forecasting exchange rate which is almost abandoned in earlier literature. Furthermore, this study combined the NARDL with univariate models to produce the accuracy which itself is a novelty. Moreover, the findings help to enhance the effectiveness of different financial theories as well.
Details
Keywords
Quratulain Nazeer Ahmed, Abdur Rahman Aleemi, Asif Hussain Samo and Muzafar Ali Shah
This study aims to examine Islamic banks’ (IBs’) obligations to uphold society’s moral and ethical dimensions. Furthermore, it explores the perspectives of practitioners and…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine Islamic banks’ (IBs’) obligations to uphold society’s moral and ethical dimensions. Furthermore, it explores the perspectives of practitioners and Shariah scholars on the role of IBs as agents to advance social and ethical well-being.
Design/methodology/approach
Qualitative methodology, with constructivist philosophy, was used. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with Shariah scholars and Islamic banking officials in Pakistan. The thematic analysis uncovered diverse dimensions catering to fulfill the requirements of social and ethical upliftment of society.
Findings
The study reveals discrepancies in the perception of IBs’ advisory board members and managers regarding the social responsibilities of IBs. Results show that practitioners of IBs disregard the overall societal welfare upliftment and faith and spiritual upliftment as a responsibility of IBs. However, they consider the inclusiveness, transparency and assurance of Hifz-e-Maal (safeguarding the wealth) among the prime duties of IBs.
Practical implications
This study serves as a call for policymakers, emphasizing that, to achieve the desired social outcomes, it is imperative to address the perceptual inconsistencies among stakeholders of the Islamic financial system.
Social implications
This study compels policymakers to confront perceptual inconsistencies in Islamic banking, advocating for regulations that guarantee wider societal welfare and spiritual advancement in addition to financial objectives.
Originality/value
This study could help broaden the understanding of the Islamic financial system, particularly the aspects that may hamper getting the desired results of this system.