This paper investigates whether a J-curve can be detected in the time series data on China’s bilateral trade with the G-7 countries. It utilizes cointegration and causality tests…
Abstract
This paper investigates whether a J-curve can be detected in the time series data on China’s bilateral trade with the G-7 countries. It utilizes cointegration and causality tests to ascertain both the long-run relatedness, and the short-run dynamics, between the real exchange rate, national income, and the trade balance. There is some evidence that a real depreciation eventually improves the trade balance with some countries. But there is no indication of a negative short-run response which characterizes the J-curve.
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New economic geography theorists, who have revived the importance of local roots and highlighted the significance of cities as a source of international competitiveness, have…
Abstract
New economic geography theorists, who have revived the importance of local roots and highlighted the significance of cities as a source of international competitiveness, have spurred the global marketing of Incheon. An examination of the new economic geography literature examines the nature of the new localism based on clusters, involving spatial proximity and concentrated face-to-face transaction, agglomeration economies and local knowledge networks. The territorial expression of these ideas is evident in competitive cities and knowledge cities. Both types of cities are embodied in civic attempts to market Incheon as an international city through the development of the international harbor and international airport and a knowledge city at Songdo. As there is no reference to Incheon in the place marketing literature there is a need to market it as Seoul-Incheon and itemize the Capital Region 's key assets and strategic advantages, including logistics and Pentaport - five ports in one - to build a presentation that attracts foreign direct investment and foreign expertise and provokes an energizing debate on the Korean Government's plan to position the country as the hub for international commerce in Northeast Asia. Critics of this place marketing approach designed to make Incheo'} a prosperously middle-class city suggest more evidence is needed before it can be assumed firms locate in cities as a base for export activities to boost their competitiveness. Perhaps there is need to give up the preoccupation with the local focus in cluster analysis and give equal attention to global connections.
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Sarah Elkhishin and Mahmoud Mohieldin
This paper aims to assess to what extent the COVID-19 shock is expected to create a debt crisis in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) through two main questions…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to assess to what extent the COVID-19 shock is expected to create a debt crisis in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) through two main questions: what are the main determinants of EMDEs external vulnerability? How vulnerable are EMDEs to the current COVID-19 shock compared to the global financial crisis (GFC)?
Design/methodology/approach
In addition to a descriptive analysis of the determinants of EMDEs external vulnerability, this paper designs two sub-indices of overindebtedness and financial fragility that capture EMDEs’ distinct characteristics. The two sub-indices together illustrate the overall external vulnerability to the current shock.
Findings
EMDEs are more vulnerable compared to the GFC era. Current debt threats arise mainly from debt architecture and the domination of volatile debt forms – primarily foreign currency-denominated bonds. Excessive fear of debt-deflation spirals after the GFC prompted EMDEs to expand their growth trajectories through a pattern of cheap private lending, loose measures and unmonitored fiscal expansion.
Research limitations/implications
Conclusive post-crisis data are still unavailable.
Practical implications
EMDEs need to balance between temporary accommodative measures and a post-shock policy mix that prevent a deflation spiral without worsening indebtedness and financial fragility. Moreover, financial prudence in face of growing credit demand is crucial, particularly in light of the monetary expansion and injected liquidity.
Originality/value
The indices offer a framework for examining external vulnerability in EMDEs based on theoretical and historical revisions, IMF benchmarks and EMDEs specific debt characteristics. The indices components can be offered for empirical examination in separate future research once conclusive data become available.