Sintayehu Alemayehu, Daniel Olago, Opere Alfred, Tadesse Terefe Zeleke and Sintayehu W. Dejene
The purpose of this study is to analyze the seasonal spatiotemporal climate variability in the Borena zone of Ethiopia and its effects on agriculture and livestock production. By…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to analyze the seasonal spatiotemporal climate variability in the Borena zone of Ethiopia and its effects on agriculture and livestock production. By examining these climate variables in relation to global sea surface temperatures (SST) and atmospheric pressure systems, the study seeks to understand the underlying mechanisms driving local climate variability. Furthermore, it assesses how these climate variations impact crop yields, particularly wheat and livestock production, providing valuable insights for developing effective adaptation strategies and policies to enhance food security and economic stability in the region.
Design/methodology/approach
The design and methodology of this study involve a multifaceted approach to analyzing seasonal spatiotemporal climate variability in the Borena zone of Ethiopia. The research uses advanced statistical techniques, including rotated empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and rotated principal component analysis (RPCA), to identify and quantify significant patterns in seasonal rainfall, temperature and drought indices over the period from 1981 to 2022. These methods are used to reveal the spatiotemporal variations and trends in climate variables. To understand the causal mechanisms behind these variations, the study correlates seasonal rainfall data with global SST and examines atmospheric pressure systems and wind vectors. In addition, the impact of climate variability on agricultural and livestock production is assessed by linking observed climate patterns with changes in crop yields, particularly wheat and livestock productivity. This comprehensive approach integrates statistical analysis with environmental and agricultural data to provide a detailed understanding of climate dynamics and their practical implications.
Findings
The findings of this study reveal significant seasonal spatiotemporal climate variability in the Borena zone of Ethiopia, characterized by notable patterns and trends in rainfall, temperature and drought indices from 1981 to 2022. The analysis identified that over 84% of the annual rainfall occurs during the March to May (MAM) and September to November (SON) seasons, with MAM contributing approximately 53% and SON over 31%, highlighting these as the primary rainfall periods. Significant spatiotemporal variations were observed, with northwestern (35.4%), southern (34.9%) and northeastern (19.3%) are dominant variability parts of the zone during MAM season, similarly southeastern (48.7%), and northcentral (37.8%) are dominant variability parts of the zone during SON season. Trends indicating that certain subregions experience more pronounced changes in climate variables in both seasons. Correlation with global SST and an examination of atmospheric pressure systems elucidated the mechanisms driving these variations, with significant correlation with the southern and central part of Indian Ocean. This study also found that fluctuations in climate variables significantly impact crop production, particularly wheat and livestock productivity in the region, underscoring the need for adaptive strategies to mitigate adverse effects on agriculture and food security.
Research limitations/implications
The implications of this study highlight the need for robust adaptation strategies to mitigate the effects of climate variability. Detailed research on seasonal climate patterns and the specific behaviors of livestock and crops is essential. Gaining a thorough understanding of these dynamics is critical for developing resilient adaptation strategies tailored to the unique ecological and economic context of the Borana zone. Future research should focus on seasonal climate variations and their implications to guide sustainable development and livelihood adjustments in the region.
Originality/value
This study offers significant originality and value by providing a detailed analysis of seasonal spatiotemporal climate variability in the Borena zone of Ethiopia, using advanced statistical techniques such as rotated EOF and RPCA. By integrating these methods with global SST data and atmospheric pressure systems, the research delivers a nuanced understanding of how global climatic factors influence local weather patterns. The study’s novel approach not only identifies key trends and patterns in climate variables over an extensive historical period but also links these findings to practical outcomes in crop and livestock production. This connection is crucial for developing targeted adaptation strategies and policies, thereby offering actionable insights for enhancing agricultural practices and food security in the region. The originality of this work lies in its comprehensive analysis and practical relevance, making it a valuable contribution to both climate science and regional agricultural planning.
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Desalegn Yayeh Ayal, Maren Radeny, Solomon Desta and Getachew Gebru
Climate variability and extremes adversely affect the livestock sector directly and indirectly by aggravating the prevalence of livestock diseases, distorting production system…
Abstract
Purpose
Climate variability and extremes adversely affect the livestock sector directly and indirectly by aggravating the prevalence of livestock diseases, distorting production system and the sector profitability. This paper aims to examine climate variability and its impact on livestock system and livestock disease among pastoralists in Borana, Southern Ethiopia.
Design/methodology/approach
Data were collected through a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods using household questionnaire, field observations, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Areal grid dikadal rainfall and temperatures data from 1985 to 2014 were collected from national meteorological agency. The quantitative and qualitative data were analyzed and interpreted using appropriate analytical tools and procedures.
Findings
The result revealed that the study area is hard hit by moisture stress, due to the late onset of rainy seasons, decrease in the number of rainy days and volume of rainfall. The rainfall distribution behavior coupled with the parallel increase in minimum and maximum temperature exacerbated the impact on livestock system and livestock health. Majority of the pastoralists are found to have rightly perceived the very occurrence and manifestations of climate variability and its consequences. Pastoralists are hardly coping with the challenges of climate variability, mainly due to cultural prejudice, poor service delivery and the socio-economic and demographic challenges.
Research limitations/implications
Pastoralists are vulnerable to the adverse impact of climate variability and extreme events.
Practical implications
The finding of the study provides baseline information for practitioners, researchers and policymakers.
Originality/value
This paper provided detailed insights about the rainfall and temperature trend and variability for the past three decades. The finding pointed that pastoralists’ livelihood is under climate variability stress, and it has implications to food insecurity.
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Caine Rolleston, Moses Oketch, Dawit Tibebu Tiruneh and Jack Rossiter
This paper explores the extent to which the period 2012–2021, when the General Education Quality Improvement Programme (GEQIP) reforms to primary education were implemented in…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper explores the extent to which the period 2012–2021, when the General Education Quality Improvement Programme (GEQIP) reforms to primary education were implemented in Ethiopia, is one of educational improvement, despite the absence of gains in learning outcomes. It examines trends in access, learning progress in Grade 4 school quality and in equity of access and outcomes across regions and between urban and rural contexts.
Design/methodology/approach
Data from several sources are employed including Ethiopian national education data (Education Management Information Systems (EMIS)) and longitudinal school survey data from the Young Lives (YL) and Research on Improving Systems of Education (RISE) projects. Analysis employs descriptive analysis and regression modelling in a value-added framework. Trends in learning outcomes in mathematics and pupil backgrounds are examined alongside school quality, its measures and predictors.
Findings
Access to primary education in Ethiopia has expanded significantly, with some equity improvements. Learning outcomes have declined in most regions, in Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples (SNNP) from a mean score of 515 in 2012 to 436 in 2020. Several school and teacher quality indicators targeted by GEQIP improved modestly, including teacher maths scores which improved from a mean of 462 to 507. Improvements have not been sufficient however to outweigh effects of rapid expansion and rising disadvantage, perhaps worsened by shocks including COVID and conflict.
Originality/value
This research contributes to understanding the role of the GEQIP reforms in improving primary education in Ethiopia. It may inform policy on targeted education quality improvement. It informs wider debate on the “learning crisis” especially in sub-Saharan Africa.
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Rana Tassabehji, Ray Hackney and Takao Maruyama
The purpose of this paper is to consider recent field evidence to analyse what online public services citizens need, explores potential citizen subsidy of these specific services…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to consider recent field evidence to analyse what online public services citizens need, explores potential citizen subsidy of these specific services and investigates where resources should be invested in terms of media accessibility. The authors explore these from a citizen-centric affordability perspective within three exemplar developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The World Bank and United Nations in particular promote initiatives under the “Information and Communication Technologies for Development” (ICT4D) to stress the relevance of e-Government as a way to ensure development and reduce poverty. The authors adopt a contingency value approach to determine directly reported citizens willingness to pay for digital public services. Hence, our focus is mainly upon an empirical investigation through extensive fieldwork in the context of sub-Sahara Africa. A substantive survey was conducted in the respective cities of Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Lagos (Nigeria) and Johannesburg (South Africa). The sample of citizens was drawn from each respective Chamber of Commerce database for Ethiopia and South Africa, and for Nigeria a purchased database of businesses, based on stratified random sampling. These were randomly identified from both sectors ensuring all locations were covered with a total sample size of 1,297 respondents. It was found, in particular, that citizens were willing to pay to be able to access digital public services and that amounts of fees they were willing to pay varied depending on what services they wish to access and what devices they use (PCs or mobile phones).
Design/methodology/approach
The authors adopt a contingency value approach to determine directly reported citizens willingness to pay for digital public services. A survey was conducted in the respective cities of Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Lagos (Nigeria) and Johannesburg (South Africa). The sample of citizens was drawn from each respective Chamber of Commerce database for Ethiopia and South Africa, and for Nigeria a purchased database of businesses, based on stratified random sampling. These were randomly identified from both sectors ensuring all locations were covered with a total sample size of 1,297 respondents.
Findings
The findings suggest that by understanding citizen needs, demands and how they can benefit from online public services could drive decisions related to what public services need to be prioritised for economically active citizens, potentially explore citizen subsidy of these specific public services which will have a trickle-down benefit to poorer citizens by reducing the pressures on traditional channels of public service delivery and investigate where resources should be invested in terms of media to access online services. Willingness to pay between the top online public services showed no statistically significant difference among all respondents.
Research limitations/implications
The research focused on economically active digitally savvy citizens in the major capital cities in each of our selected countries. While these are not representative of the population at large, our intention was to understand what citizen-led government services would look like from the perspective of this group, with an insight into the value they place on these online services and their ability to access them. Technology diffusion starts with the early adopters (Rogers, 2010), and here the authors have focused on those that are likely to be early adopters.
Practical implications
Poor fiscal capacity, namely, the amount and type of resources a state has at its disposal, not only has an impact on economic wellbeing, but particularly relevant in this case, also has an impact on the quality of government (Baskaran and Bigsten, 2013). Thus, e-government is one way in which developing countries can focus on developing good governance and strengthening civil society to improve the quality of government and motivate citizens to participate in the political process.
Social implications
The economic performance of African countries has been viewed with pessimism, consistently considered to be the poorest continent (Harrison et al., 2014). Recent studies have empirically shown that new information technologies have contributed to longer term economic growth in African countries and stress the need for government to further invest in developing telecommunications infrastructures and internet access (Donou-Adonsou et al., 2016). However one of the major constraints and challenges for developing countries is the limited fiscal capacity and ability to mobilise fiscal resources to finance the provision of public services, which is essential for economic development (Ali et al., 2015).
Originality/value
The authors contribute to the World Bank and United Nations initiatives to promote ICT for Development’ (ICT4D) the relevance of e-government as a way to ensure development and reduce poverty. If online services are of no benefit, even if they are more convenient and lower cost, they are unlikely to be used. Accessing digital public services directly addresses the needs of economically active citizens and can also facilitate the steps towards an improved quality of government and interaction with civil society. The study has contributed to an insightful understanding of the value, cost and benefits of citizen-led e-Government in this respect.
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Yimer Mohammed, Fantaw Yimer, Menfese Tadesse and Kindie Tesfaye
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the patterns and trends of drought incidence in north east highlands of Ethiopia using monthly rainfall record for the period 1984-2014.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the patterns and trends of drought incidence in north east highlands of Ethiopia using monthly rainfall record for the period 1984-2014.
Design/methodology/approach
Standard precipitation index and Mann – Kendal test were used to analyze drought incident and trends of drought occurrences, respectively. The spatial extent of droughts in the study area has been interpolated by inverse distance weighted method using the spatial analyst tool of ArcGIS.
Findings
Most of the studied stations experienced drought episodes in 1984, 1987/1988, 1992/1993, 1999, 2003/2004 and 2007/2008 which were among the worst drought years in the history of Ethiopia. The year 1984 was the most drastic and distinct-wide extreme drought episode in all studied stations. The Mann–Kendal test shows an increasing tendencies of drought at three-month (spring) timescale at all stations though significant (p < 0.05) only at Mekaneselam and decreasing tendencies at three-month (summer) and 12-month timescales at all stations. The frequency of total drought was the highest in central and north parts of the region in all study seasons.
Originality/value
This detail drought characterization can be used as bench mark to take comprehensive drought management measures such as early warning system, preparation and contingency planning, climate change adaptation programs.