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1 – 10 of 32Steven Devaney and David Scofield
Commercial real estate (CRE) is a major investment asset. Yet detailed information on the value of investible CRE in different cities is lacking. The authors propose an innovative…
Abstract
Purpose
Commercial real estate (CRE) is a major investment asset. Yet detailed information on the value of investible CRE in different cities is lacking. The authors propose an innovative method to measure the value of investible CRE using transaction datasets.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors take transaction prices and index them to produce a time series of values for each asset. The sum of the values at each point represents the value of investible CRE at that date. The authors’ method is applied to transaction data for New York, London and Toronto.
Findings
London had the highest proportions of institutional and foreign ownership, and its turnover was more resilient to the downturn in global CRE following the GFC. The results illustrate the potential of the authors’ method to shed light on the characteristics of investible CRE markets.
Research limitations/implications
The authors use data from Real Capital Analytics (RCA). This provides good coverage of transactions for investible CRE in the cities that the authors examine, but data from other sources might lead to different estimates.
Practical implications
Measuring the value and turnover of investible CRE is important for portfolio strategies that account for the size and liquidity of investment markets. Knowledge of these features, and of ownership patterns, provides a better understanding of market operation.
Originality/value
The authors’ modification of the perpetual inventory technique is simple, novel and practical. The authors propose this approach given the absence of a building-by-building inventory of investible CRE in many markets.
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David Scofield and Steven Devaney
The purpose of this paper is to understand what affects the liquidity of individual commercial real estate assets over the course of the economic cycle by exploring a range of…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to understand what affects the liquidity of individual commercial real estate assets over the course of the economic cycle by exploring a range of variables and a number of time periods to identify key determinants of sale probability.
Design/methodology/approach
Analyzing 12,000 UK commercial real estate transactions (2003 to 2013) the authors use an innovative sampling technique akin to a perpetual inventory approach to generate a sample of held assets for each 12 month interval. Next, the authors use probit models to test how market, owner and property factors affect sale probability in different market environments.
Findings
The types of properties that are most likely to sell changes between strong and weak markets. Office and retail assets were more likely to sell than industrial both overall and in better market conditions, but were less likely to sell than industrial properties during the downturn from mid-2007 to mid-2009. Assets located in the City of London more likely to sell in both strong and weak markets. The behavior of different groups of owners changed over time, and this indicates that the type of owner might have implications for the liquidity of individual assets over and above their physical and locational attributes.
Practical implications
Variation in sale probability over time and across assets has implications for real estate investment management both in terms of asset selection and the ability to rebalance portfolios over the course of the cycle. Results also suggest that sample selection may be an issue for commercial real estate price indices around the globe and imply that indices based on a limited group of owners/sellers might be susceptible to further biases when tracking market performance through time.
Originality/value
The study differs from the existing literature on sale probability as the authors analyzed samples of transactions drawn from all investor types, a significant advantage over studies based on data restricted to samples of domestic institutional investors. As well, information on country of origin for buyers and sellers allows us to explore the influence of foreign ownership on the probability of sale. Finally, the authors not only analyze all transactions together, but the authors also look at transactions in five distinct periods that correspond with different phases of the UK commercial real estate cycle. This paper considers the UK real estate market, but it is likely that many of the findings hold for other major commercial real estate markets.
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Steven Devaney and David Scofield
Commercial real estate is a highly specific asset: heterogeneous, indivisible and with less information transparency than most other commonly held investment assets. These…
Abstract
Purpose
Commercial real estate is a highly specific asset: heterogeneous, indivisible and with less information transparency than most other commonly held investment assets. These attributes encourage the use of intermediaries during asset acquisition and disposal. However, there are few attempts to explain the use of different brokerage models (with differing costs) in different markets. This study aims to address this gap.
Design/methodology/approach
The study analyses 9,338 real estate transactions in London and New York City from 2001 to 2011. Data are provided by Real Capital Analytics and cover over $450 billion of investments in this period. Brokerage trends in the two cities are compared and probit regressions are used to test whether the decision to transact with broker representation varies with investor or asset characteristics.
Findings
Results indicate greater use of brokerage in London, especially by purchasers. This persists when data are disaggregated by sector, time or investor type, pointing to the role of local market culture and institutions in shaping brokerage models and transaction costs. Within each city, the nature of the investors involved seems to be a more significant influence on broker use than the characteristics of the assets being traded.
Originality/value
Brokerage costs are the single largest non-tax charge to an investor when trading commercial real estate, yet there is little research in this area. This study examines the role of brokers and provides empirical evidence on factors that influence the use and mode of brokerage in two major investment destinations.
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The purpose of this paper is to provide new insights into asset liquidity in direct commercial real estate investment in the UK. Transaction data provided by four institutional…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to provide new insights into asset liquidity in direct commercial real estate investment in the UK. Transaction data provided by four institutional investors of commercial real estate are used to test for changes in asset liquidity as manifest in recorded times from price agreement to deal completion. Median times to completion by stage of the transaction are presented alongside industry estimates.
Design/methodology/approach
Stages of the transaction process are modelled and median times per stage calculated to track changes in asset liquidity over, and between, the two periods of the study (2000‐2002 and 2005‐2008). Real times to completion are considered in conjunction with estimated times compiled through interviews with senior level investment professionals. This paper applies the Wilcoxon rank‐sum test to determine the significance of variation in median times across the two study periods.
Findings
This paper provides empirical evidence that liquidity increased from 2000 to 2008. Median times from price agreement to completion decreased significantly (p=0.015) from 2000‐2002 to 2005‐2008, indicating an increase in asset liquidity in step with an overall increase in transaction volume. Furthermore, senior investment actors were found to persistently over‐estimate transaction efficiency and underestimate liquidity risk when acquiring and disposing of commercial properties.
Research limitations/implications
This work offers new insights into the changing nature of asset liquidity over the last decade based on a limited number of transactions. Additional studies involving larger samples of transactions would provide still greater insight into commercial real estate liquidity dimensions.
Practical implications
The paper presents evidence of pro‐cyclicality; asset liquidity varies positively with overall transaction volumes, and investment actors were found to overestimate asset liquidity suggesting a persistent underestimation of liquidity risk.
Originality/value
This paper addresses a gap in the extant literature offering real time on market‐time to completion observations alongside investor estimates. Median times to completion have been modelled and presented, together with time estimates provided by industry experts. Also, for first time in real estate research, median times to completion are shown to shorten significantly in‐line with increasing transaction volumes.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine the provisions of both the neoclassical economics and new institutional economics theses and assesses the implications of their…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the provisions of both the neoclassical economics and new institutional economics theses and assesses the implications of their methodologies for property market analysis.
Design/methodology/approach
This research is based on secondary literature review and desk-based study.
Findings
It is argued that new institutional economics, grounded on firmer foundations of human behaviour, offers an analytical approach to the study of the property market which emphasizes the institutionally contingent nature of real estate exchange, thus placing real estate within its socio-economic context.
Originality/value
In-depth examination and juxtaposition of the provisions, assumptions, philosophical orientations and limitations of these main traditions of economic thought towards the achievement of a representative study of the workings of the property market.
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John C. Anderson and Damon M. Fleming
This study investigates whether exposure to a previous client’s earnings management behavior will impact experienced auditors’ judgments of the risk that a current client’s…
Abstract
This study investigates whether exposure to a previous client’s earnings management behavior will impact experienced auditors’ judgments of the risk that a current client’s financial statements are materially misstated. Contrast theory predicts the context of previous information can have a priming effect on a current judgment scenario, where the information for the current judgment is contrasted with the previous information. Guided by contrast theory, we exposed auditors to either positive or negative client ethical earnings management behavior. We found the existence of contrast effects, with the positive (negative) context of the previous client resulting in auditors judging a higher (lower) likelihood of material misstatement in the current client’s financial statements. The results have implications for the effectiveness and efficiency of auditors’ judgments as well as provide insight into auditor training efforts.
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This is a selective annotated bibliography of the literature on Christopher Columbus from 1970 to 1989. The subject is particularly relevant considering the approach of the…
Abstract
This is a selective annotated bibliography of the literature on Christopher Columbus from 1970 to 1989. The subject is particularly relevant considering the approach of the Quincentenary of the “discovery” of America in 1992. For that same reason, there has been an outpouring of literature on the subject since 1990, a significant subset of which contributes to are interpretation of Columbus the man, his voyages, and their impact on the new world. It is hoped that this more recent literature will be part of a subsequent annotated bibliography.