Xiaoyue Chen, Bin Li, Tarlok Singh and Andrew C. Worthington
Motivated by the significant role of uncertainty in affecting investment decisions and China's economic leadership in Asia, this paper investigates the predictive role of exposure…
Abstract
Purpose
Motivated by the significant role of uncertainty in affecting investment decisions and China's economic leadership in Asia, this paper investigates the predictive role of exposure to Chinese economic policy uncertainty at the individual stock level in large Asian markets.
Design/methodology/approach
We estimate the monthly uncertainty exposure (beta) for each stock and then employ the portfolio-level sorting analysis to investigate the relationship between the China’s uncertainty exposure and the future returns of major Asian markets over multiple trading horizons. The raw returns of the high-minus-low portfolios are then adjusted using conventional asset pricing models to investigate whether the relationship is explained by common risk factors. Finally, we check the robustness of the portfolio-level results through firm-level Fama and MacBeth (1973) regressions.
Findings
Applying portfolio-level sorting analysis, we reveal that exposure to Chinese uncertainty is negatively related to the future returns of large stocks over multiple trading horizons in Japan, Hong Kong and India. We discover this is unexplained by common risk factors, including market, size, value, profitability, investment and momentum, and is robust to the specification of stock-level Fama and MacBeth (1973) regressions.
Research limitations/implications
Our analysis demonstrates the spillover effects of Chinese economic policy uncertainty across the region, provides evidence of China's emerging economic leadership, and offers trading strategies for managing uncertainty risks.
Originality/value
The findings of the study significantly improve our understanding of stock return predictability in Asian markets. Unlike previous studies, our results challenge the leading role of the US by providing a new intra-regional return predictor, namely, China’s uncertainty exposure. These results also evidence the continuing integration of the Asian economy and financial markets. However, contrary findings for some Asian markets point toward certain market-specific features. Compared with market-level research, our analysis provides deeper insights into the performance of individual stocks and is of particular importance to investors and other market participants.
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Yujie Li, Tiantian Chen, Sikai Chen and Samuel Labi
The anticipated benefits of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) include safety and mobility enhancement. Small headways between successive vehicles, on one hand, can cause…
Abstract
Purpose
The anticipated benefits of connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) include safety and mobility enhancement. Small headways between successive vehicles, on one hand, can cause increased capacity and throughput and thereby improve overall mobility. On the other hand, small headways can cause vehicle occupant discomfort and unsafety. Therefore, in a CAV environment, it is important to determine appropriate headways that offer a good balance between mobility and user safety/comfort.
Design/methodology/approach
In addressing this research question, this study carried out a pilot experiment using a driving simulator equipped with a Level-3 automated driving system, to measure the threshold headways. The Method of Constant Stimuli (MCS) procedure was modified to enable the estimation of two comfort thresholds. The participants (drivers) were placed in three categories (“Cautious,” “Neutral” and “Confident”) and 250 driving tests were carried out for each category. Probit analysis was then used to estimate the threshold headways that differentiate drivers' discomfort and their intention to re-engage the driving tasks.
Findings
The results indicate that “Cautious” drivers tend to be more sensitive to the decrease in headways, and therefore exhibit greater propensity to deactivate the automated driving mode under a longer headway relative to other driver groups. Also, there seems to exist no driver discomfort when the CAV maintains headway up to 5%–9% shorter than the headways they typically adopt. Further reduction in headways tends to cause discomfort to drivers and trigger take over control maneuver.
Research limitations/implications
In future studies, the number of observations could be increased further.
Practical implications
The study findings can help guide specification of user-friendly headways specified in the algorithms used for CAV control, by vehicle manufacturers and technology companies. By measuring and learning from a human driver's perception, AV manufacturers can produce personalized AVs to suit the user's preferences regarding headway. Also, the identified headway thresholds could be applied by practitioners and researchers to update highway lane capacities and passenger-car-equivalents in the autonomous mobility era.
Originality/value
The study represents a pioneering effort and preliminary pilot driving simulator experiment to assess the tradeoffs between comfortable headways versus mobility-enhancing headways in an automated driving environment.
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Suisui Chen and Jiakai Li
The study aims to assess marine biodiversity security, which is closely linked to a healthy planet and societal well-being. It defines marine biodiversity security, identifies…
Abstract
Purpose
The study aims to assess marine biodiversity security, which is closely linked to a healthy planet and societal well-being. It defines marine biodiversity security, identifies threats such as climate change, marine debris and invasive species and explores mechanisms impacting this security to aid in achieving Aichi Targets and enhancing ecological sustainability.
Design/methodology/approach
Using spatial statistical methods, the research analyzes the temporal and spatial distribution of marine biodiversity. It provides a comprehensive multi-layered perspective on the current state of global marine biodiversity, facilitating the identification of threats and the understanding of their mechanisms.
Findings
The findings indicate significant threats to marine biodiversity, with an emphasis on climate change, marine debris and invasive species. The report reveals the spatial distribution of endangered species and underscores the need for urgent actions to address these threats and improve marine biodiversity security globally.
Originality/value
This report serves as a critical reference for promoting healthy, productive marine biodiversity that supports societal welfare. It underscores the importance of establishing a protective framework for marine biodiversity, contributing to the realization of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, particularly SDG 14.
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Liyang Wang, Feng Chen, Pengcheng Wang and Qianli Zhang
Salt rock from salt lakes can serve as a cost-effective material for subgrade filling, as demonstrated in projects like the Qarhan Salt Lake section of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway…
Abstract
Purpose
Salt rock from salt lakes can serve as a cost-effective material for subgrade filling, as demonstrated in projects like the Qarhan Salt Lake section of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway and the Qarhan Salt Lake section of the G215 Highway. This state-of-the-art paper aims to summarize the engineering properties of salt rock filling and present the advances of its utilization.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper collects and analyzes laboratory and field data of salt rock filling from previous studies to present a comprehensive analysis of the engineering properties and utilization of salt rock fillings.
Findings
Salt rock primarily contains minerals such as halite and glauberite, which contribute to its unique phase-changing behavior under varying environmental conditions, impacting its mechanical properties. Salt rock filling shrinks when in contact with vapor or unsaturated brine and expands under cooling or evaporation. Its use is particularly recommended for arid regions, with specific restrictions depending on the structure type. This paper discusses suggested countermeasures to mitigate these issues, as well as key quality acceptance indices for salt rock filling compaction. Moisture content after air-drying is recommended as a crucial parameter for construction quality control.
Originality/value
This review aims to support future research and engineering practices in salt rock subgrade applications.
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Jun Huang, Haijie Mo and Tianshu Zhang
This paper takes the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect as a quasi-natural experiment and investigates the impact of capital market liberalization on the corporate debt…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper takes the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect as a quasi-natural experiment and investigates the impact of capital market liberalization on the corporate debt maturity structure. It also aims to provide some policy implications for corporate debt financing and further liberalization of the capital market in China.
Design/methodology/approach
Employing the exogenous event of Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect and using the data of Chinese A-share firms from 2010 to 2020, this study constructs a difference-in-differences model to examine the relationship between capital market liberalization and corporate debt maturity structure. To validate the results, this study performed several robustness tests, including the parallel test, the placebo test, the Heckman two-stage regression and the propensity score matching.
Findings
This paper finds that capital market liberalization has significantly increased the proportion of long-term debt of target firms. Further analyses suggest that the impact of capital market liberalization on the debt maturity structure is more pronounced for firms with lower management ownership and non-Big 4 audit. Channel tests show that capital market liberalization improves firms’ information environment and curbs self-interested management behavior.
Originality/value
This research provides empirical evidence for the consequences of capital market liberalization and enriches the literature on the determinants of corporate debt maturity structure. Further this study makes a reference for regulators and financial institutions to improve corporate financing through the governance role of capital market liberalization.
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Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang
Forecasts of commodity prices are vital issues to market participants and policy makers. Those of corn are of no exception, considering its strategic importance. In the present…
Abstract
Purpose
Forecasts of commodity prices are vital issues to market participants and policy makers. Those of corn are of no exception, considering its strategic importance. In the present study, the authors assess the forecast problem for the weekly wholesale price index of yellow corn in China during January 1, 2010–January 10, 2020 period.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ the nonlinear auto-regressive neural network as the forecast tool and evaluate forecast performance of different model settings over algorithms, delays, hidden neurons and data splitting ratios in arriving at the final model.
Findings
The final model is relatively simple and leads to accurate and stable results. Particularly, it generates relative root mean square errors of 1.05%, 1.08% and 1.03% for training, validation and testing, respectively.
Originality/value
Through the analysis, the study shows usefulness of the neural network technique for commodity price forecasts. The results might serve as technical forecasts on a standalone basis or be combined with other fundamental forecasts for perspectives of price trends and corresponding policy analysis.
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Fang Wen, Yun Bai, Xin Zhang, Yao Chen and Ninghai Li
This study aims to improve the passenger accessibility of passenger demands in the end-of-operation period.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to improve the passenger accessibility of passenger demands in the end-of-operation period.
Design/methodology/approach
A mixed integer nonlinear programming model for last train timetable optimization of the metro was proposed considering the constraints such as the maximum headway, the minimum headway and the latest end-of-operation time. The objective of the model is to maximize the number of reachable passengers in the end-of-operation period. A solution method based on a preset train service is proposed, which significantly reduces the variables of deciding train services in the original model and reformulates it into a mixed integer linear programming model.
Findings
The results of the case study of Wuhan Metro show that the solution method can obtain high-quality solutions in a shorter time; and the shorter the time interval of passenger flow data, the more obvious the advantage of solution speed; after optimization, the number of passengers reaching the destination among the passengers who need to take the last train during the end-of-operation period can be increased by 10%.
Originality/value
Existing research results only consider the passengers who take the last train. Compared with previous research, considering the overall passenger demand during the end-of-operation period can make more passengers arrive at their destination. Appropriately delaying the end-of-operation time can increase the proportion of passengers who can reach the destination in the metro network, but due to the decrease in passenger demand, postponing the end-of-operation time has a bottleneck in increasing the proportion of passengers who can reach the destination.
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Bingzi Jin and Xiaojie Xu
Agriculture commodity price forecasts have long been important for a variety of market players. The study we conducted aims to address this difficulty by examining the weekly…
Abstract
Purpose
Agriculture commodity price forecasts have long been important for a variety of market players. The study we conducted aims to address this difficulty by examining the weekly wholesale price index of green grams in the Chinese market. The index covers a ten-year period, from January 1, 2010, to January 3, 2020, and has significant economic implications.
Design/methodology/approach
In order to address the nonlinear patterns present in the price time series, we investigate the nonlinear auto-regressive neural network as the forecast model. This modeling technique is able to combine a variety of basic nonlinear functions to approximate more complex nonlinear characteristics. Specifically, we examine prediction performance that corresponds to several configurations across data splitting ratios, hidden neuron and delay counts, and model estimation approaches.
Findings
Our model turns out to be rather simple and yields forecasts with good stability and accuracy. Relative root mean square errors throughout training, validation and testing are specifically 4.34, 4.71 and 3.98%, respectively. The results of benchmark research show that the neural network produces statistically considerably better performance when compared to other machine learning models and classic time-series econometric methods.
Originality/value
Utilizing our findings as independent technical price forecasts would be one use. Alternatively, policy research and fresh insights into price patterns might be achieved by combining them with other (basic) prediction outputs.
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Qiang Yi, Stanley Chien, Lingxi Li, Wensen Niu, Yaobin Chen, David Good, Chi-Chih Chen and Rini Sherony
To support the standardized evaluation of bicyclist automatic emergency braking (AEB) systems, test scenarios, test procedures and test system hardware and software tools have…
Abstract
Purpose
To support the standardized evaluation of bicyclist automatic emergency braking (AEB) systems, test scenarios, test procedures and test system hardware and software tools have been investigated and developed by the Transportation Active Safety Institute (TASI) at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis. This paper aims to focus on the development of test scenarios and bicyclist surrogate for evaluating vehicle–bicyclist AEB systems.
Design/methodology/approach
The harmonized general estimates system (GES)/FARS 2010-2011 crash data and TASI 110-car naturalistic driving data (NDD) are used to determine the crash geometries and environmental factors of crash scenarios including lighting conditions, vehicle speeds, bicyclist speeds, etc. A surrogate bicyclist including a bicycle rider and a bicycle surrogate is designed to match the visual and radar characteristics of bicyclists in the USA. A bicycle target is designed with both leg pedaling and wheel rotation to produce proper micro-Doppler features and generate realistic motion for camera-based AEB systems.
Findings
Based on the analysis of the harmonized GES/FARS crash data, five crash scenarios are recommended for performance testing of bicyclist AEB systems. Combined with TASI 110-car naturalistic driving data, the crash environmental factors including lighting conditions, obscuring objects, vehicle speed and bicyclist speed are determined. The surrogate bicyclist was designed to represent the visual and radar characteristics of the real bicyclists in the USA. The height of the bicycle rider mannequin is 173 cm, representing the weighted height of 50th percentile US male and female adults. The size and shape of the surrogate bicycle were determined as 26-inch wheel and mountain/road bicycle frame, respectively. Both leg pedaling motion and wheel rotation are suggested to produce proper micro-Doppler features and support the camera-based AEB systems.
Originality/value
The results have demonstrated that the developed scenarios, test procedures and bicyclist surrogate will provide effective objective methods and necessary hardware and software tools for the evaluation and validation of bicyclist AEB systems. This is crucial for the development of advanced driver assistance systems.
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Li Chen, Dirk Ifenthaler, Jane Yin-Kim Yau and Wenting Sun
The study aims to identify the status quo of artificial intelligence in entrepreneurship education with a view to identifying potential research gaps, especially in the adoption…
Abstract
Purpose
The study aims to identify the status quo of artificial intelligence in entrepreneurship education with a view to identifying potential research gaps, especially in the adoption of certain intelligent technologies and pedagogical designs applied in this domain.
Design/methodology/approach
A scoping review was conducted using six inclusive and exclusive criteria agreed upon by the author team. The collected studies, which focused on the adoption of AI in entrepreneurship education, were analysed by the team with regards to various aspects including the definition of intelligent technology, research question, educational purpose, research method, sample size, research quality and publication. The results of this analysis were presented in tables and figures.
Findings
Educators introduced big data and algorithms of machine learning in entrepreneurship education. Big data analytics use multimodal data to improve the effectiveness of entrepreneurship education and spot entrepreneurial opportunities. Entrepreneurial analytics analysis entrepreneurial projects with low costs and high effectiveness. Machine learning releases educators’ burdens and improves the accuracy of the assessment. However, AI in entrepreneurship education needs more sophisticated pedagogical designs in diagnosis, prediction, intervention, prevention and recommendation, combined with specific entrepreneurial learning content and entrepreneurial procedure, obeying entrepreneurial pedagogy.
Originality/value
This study holds significant implications as it can shift the focus of entrepreneurs and educators towards the educational potential of artificial intelligence, prompting them to consider the ways in which it can be used effectively. By providing valuable insights, the study can stimulate further research and exploration, potentially opening up new avenues for the application of artificial intelligence in entrepreneurship education.