Capital flows and its impacts on fiscal imbalances, study
data sources
, 342–343
descriptive statistics
, 343–351
facts for European Union
, 336–340
General Government Debt (GGD)
, 345, 350
hypotheses
, 334
literature review
, 335–336
marginal explanatory variable (MEXVAL)
, 349–350, 353n2
methodology
, 340–342
Net International Payment Positions (NIPP)
, 343, 345–346, 349–350
net lending (NLB)
, 349
policy implications
, 351–353
problems of Non-Performing Loans (NPL)
, 351
seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) technique
, 340, 345–348
Central, Eastern, and South-Eastern Europe (CESE)
, 359
Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC)
, 359
Central banks, functions of
, 117
Central European economies
, 174
Central government debt in selected countries
, 424
Cholesky identification scheme
, 260
Citizens’ Euroscepticism, reflection on
, 40
economic conditions, in case of
, 38
fixed effect estimates
, 35–39
ideological extremism, impact of
, 35, 38
non-mainstream parties vs mainstream parties
, 38
opinion of the electorate as determining factor
, 35, 38
ordered logit and fractional logit results
, 35–39
party characteristics, influence of
, 35
political elites’ support
, 40
relationship between incumbent support and orientations toward Europe
, 35
role of economic conditions
, 36–38
troubled economies, in case of
, 38–40
in virtuous economies
, 40
2010 Communication
, 52–53
Competitiveness
, 74, 225–230
austerity measures and
, 231–232
balance of payment (BOP) implications
, 231
Business School’s view of
, 225
causal mechanism associated with
, 234–235
economic growth and
, 227
Euro Institutions view’s of
, 229
high technology (HT) productive structures vs low technology (LT) productive structures
, 225–227
improvements in productivity, and
, 225
inflationary adjustments and
, 229–230
issues within the Euro Area
, 246–247
labor costs-determined
, 266
labour costs
, 228
long-term dynamics of
, 247
macroeconomic imbalances and
, 230–235
national
, 225–226, 229
Krugman’s critique of
, 225
neoclassical theory of competition
, 227
price and non-price
, 229
price/cost
, 228
productivity growth, in terms of
, 232–234
Ricardo’s theory of comparative advantage
, 227
structural trade imbalances and
, 231
in technology manufacturing
, 235–239
Thirlwall’s model
, 230
trade deficits and debt accumulation, in terms of
, 232
unions and
, 228
welfare and
, 228
See also International competitiveness in Eurozone
Composite indicators of financial integration
, 180, 187–188
Consumer price inflation (CPI) in Eurozone
, 72
Credit markets mechanism
, 164
Cross-border payment
, 101–102
Cross-ownership of assets
, 163
Cumulative causation principle
, 50
Current account balances of countries
, 246–248
bilateral trade balances
, 247
causality between exchange rate changes and current account adjustments
, 246
in EMU
, 246
estimation of effects of global current account imbalances
, 246
impact of competitiveness issues and asymmetric trade developments
, 247
implications of real exchange rate fluctuations
, 246
origins of
, 247
paneleconometric analysis
, 247
panel regression models
, 246
real exchange rate and demand shifts on current account adjustments, analysis
current account responses to demand shocks
, 264–265
decomposition of conditional variance of current accounts
, 270–274
econometric model
, 256–262
impulse–response functions
, 263–270
responses of current account to REER
, 263–268
responses to the real exchange rate (CPI based) shock
, 264–266
testing procedure
, 262–263
real exchange rate movements
, 247
real exchange rates and growth
, 247–248
relation between external wealth and trade balance
, 248
relationship between terms of trade, trade balances and business cycles
, 246
role of financial links in the accumulation and then adjustment of
, 248
trends in Euro area
, 248–261
dynamics of import shares on GDP
, 256–258
dynamics of real output and the dynamics of exports and imports
, 250–253
during pre-crisis period
, 248–250
price and costs related effects on export performance
, 253–256
Current account imbalances of Eurozone
, 73–77
Efficiency market hypothesis
, 7
Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA)
, 131
Euro-areawide payment system
, 101
Eurobarometer Survey
, 11, 19n7
European Banking Authority (EBA)
, 207–209
European Central Bank (ECB)
, 56, 95–96, 117, 174, 215, 217, 245, 306, 343, 358, 429
anti-growth bias
, 131–132
asset backed securities (ABSPP), purchase of
, 132
asymmetric policy approach
, 127
conduct of monetary policy and banking supervision
, 208, 214–215
covered bonds program (CBPP3)
, 132
crisis management
, 129
economic policy rule
, 8
evolution of policies
, 127
fixed rate full allotment (FRFA) program
, 129
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the euro area
, 120–121
institutional commitments of
, 10
interest rate cut
, 127
intra-area divergences
, 126
“lender-of-last-resort” role of
, 105
long-term refinancing operations (LTROs)
, 147
as a monetary authority
, 117
monetary policy
, 1999–2014, 127–132
“one-size-fits-none” monetary policy stance
, 126
“outright open market operations” (OMT) programme
, 131
policy inaction
, 128–129
policy strategy
, 4
QE initiative
, 132–135, 146–147
role in financial stability policy
, 117
“structural reform” of labor markets
, 126–127
targeted long-term financing operation (TLTRO-II)
, 134
trust in
, 9–11
workload
, 214
European Commission
, 2, 52–53, 138n7, 342, 429
“An Investment Plan for Europe”
, 73
Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) Scoreboard
, 360
European Deposit Insurance Guarantee Scheme
, 71
European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS)
, 82
European Economic Area (EEA)
, 195
European Economic Community (EEC)
, 48
supply-oriented regional and industrial policies, impact of
, 48
supply-oriented regional and industrial policies of
, 47
European economy consolidation process
, 8
European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI)
, 85n21
European macroeconomic imbalances
, 336
European monetary integration
, 309
European Monetary System (EMS)
, 119
European Monetary Union (EMU)
, 4, 66, 92–93, 116, 162, 335
challenges faced by
, 335
cross-ownership of assets
, 163
See also Assets cross-ownership, analysis of
current account deficits
, 1985–2000, 336
current account determination in
, 246
fiscal and monetary policies
, 95
global financial crisis and
, 93–95
governance of
, 67–68
harmonization of rules and surveillance of financial sector in
, 67
institutional framework
new
, 69–73
problems with
, 68
interactions between independent fiscal authorities and single fiscal bank in
, 336
monetary reforms
, 100–107
objectives
, 70
political contract of
, 68
quantitative easing policy
, 335
rules governing
, 70
Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in
, 70
“Two-Pack” arrangements and “Fiscal Compact,”
, 70–71, 80–81, 84n9
European Parliament (EP)
, 4
European policy model
criterion of spending constraint
, 6
limits
, 7
monetary policy
, 7–8
separation between fiscal and monetary policy
, 6
European sovereign debt crisis
, 421–429
European Stability Mechanism (ESM)
, 69, 136, 213, 429
financial assistance to countries
, 69
European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB)
, 195
European System of Financial Supervisors (ESFS)
, 206
Europe Central Bank (ECB)
, 67
Governing Council
, 72
measures to support financial stability
, 70
policy response to a crisis
, 70
Euro Treasury
, 135–136
debt issuance
, 135
Eurozone
, 10, 236, 358
austerity policies, impact of
, 77–79
characteristics
, 46
competitiveness
, 73
consumer price inflation (CPI) in
, 72
crisis
, 66, 72, 224, 335
pooling of debt
, 426–427
redistributive effects of
, 244
current account imbalances
, 73–77
current state of inflation in
, 71
debt ratios in
, 80
degree of divergence in
, 69
democratic deficit in
, 68
divergence in competitiveness
, 236
employment and income fluctuations
, 47
explanatory factors for imbalances
, 228
fiscal developments
, 339
government debt securities
, 338
annual debt service for
, 338–339
gross capital formation and capital outlays
, 51
gross domestic product (GDP)
, 66
high-tech industries in
, 52
inflation, growth, and the labor market
, 120–124
integration process
, 388
international competitiveness in
divergence vs convergence of
, 393–400
fixed effects estimation for trade balance growth
, 397
generalized method of moments estimation for trade balance
, 401–402
Hausman and Breusch-Pagan test
, 399
methodology
, 389
random effects estimation for trade balance growth
, 398
theoretical background
, 389–393
intra-area divergences and build-up of imbalances
, 124–127
living standards
, 47–48
long-term interest rates for
, 422–423
manufacturing employment
, 51
member countries
, 47
movement of capital in
, 75
need for structural reforms
, 81–83
per capita GDP
, 47
policy trilemma and
, 67
problems of budget deficits
, 337–338
R&D expenditure and R&D spending
, 52
real GDP growth and debt problem
, 77–81
2004–2014
, 78
regional and industrial disparities and problems
, 47–48
regional and industrial policies in
, 48–50
developmental state approach
, 54–57
for economic restructuring and diversification
, 57–60
overall evaluation
, 50–54
strategic planning
, 57
regional and socioeconomic development characteristics in
, 47
regional inequalities and disparities
, 47
risk management
, 69–70
rules, policies, and institutional flaws in
, 67–69
Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM) for banks in
, 71
supply-oriented regional and industrial policies, impact of
, 48
supply-oriented regional and industrial policies of
, 47
trade performance
, 53
unemployment rate
, 117
Eurozone member countries
, 4
Evolutionary growth theory
, 227
Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM)
, 119
Export-led economic growth strategies
, 96
External imbalances in New Zealand, risks associated with
, 336
Extra-Euro Area exports
, 247
General Government Debt (GGD)
, 345, 350
Generalized Least Squares (GLS) Method
, 341
Germany
, 71, 96
Agenda
, 2010, 428
competitive gap-current account imbalances
, 236–237
competitiveness in technology manufacturing
, 235–239
divergence in competitiveness
, 235–236
fiscal balances
, 238
productive structure and debt
, 238
unit labour costs
, 239
value added share
, 235
vs Spain
, 235
current account balances
, 74–75
debt crisis
, 429
See also Sovereign debt crisis
democratic deficit in
, 68
euro trilemma
, 136
export-oriented economic policy
, 427
export structure
, 1999–2007, 236
export surplus to output ratio
, 428–429
gap between national interest rates and German interest rates
, 298
GDP growth
, 79, 122
German ideology of ordoliberalism
, 73
German unification
, 119–120
in the global business cycle
, 122
intra-German transfer union
, 136
medium technology manufacturing
, 235
model of export-led growth
, 124, 134–135
price stability, impact of
, 119–120, 124–127
title of “sick man of the euro,”
, 119
wage stagnation
, 224
Global financial crisis of 2007/2008
, 94–95, 174, 229, 283, 338, 359
European Monetary Union (EMU) and
, 93–95
single European currency and
, 95–97
See also Sovereign debt crisis
Gold Exchange Standard
, 6
Greece
, 250
competitiveness, in terms of
, 237
current account balances
, 74–75
debt crisis
, 48, 66, 309, 422–424
See also Sovereign debt crisis
effects Eurozone participation
, 335
housing price bubbles
, 309, 315–316
recovery from crisis
, 79
sovereign debt levels
, 309
Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain (GIIPS) crisis
aftermath of crises
costs of rescue interventions
, 322–323
countries’ populations, impact on
, 323–324
impacts on banking sector
, 321–322
comparative studies
, 307–308, 325–327
country-specific case studies
, 309–310
budget deficits
, 311–312
convergence criteria for adopting Euro
, 311
GDP growth rate for
, 1999–2014, 310–311
pressures increasing likelihood of crises
government budget and current account deficits
, 316–318
private and public consumption levels
, 318–319
real-estate sector
, 315–316
yield and foreign debt conditions
, 319–320
systematic imbalances after the Euro
cycles common to precede banking crises
, 313–314
economic characteristics and performances
, 310–313
monetary aggregates M1 and M2
, 313–314
Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC)
, 262
Search-for-yield effect
, 177
Securities Market Program (SMP)
, 70, 85n10, 129, 132
Seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) technique
, 340, 345–348
Settlement system
, 103–104
Sigma-convergence of individual financial markets
, 177–179, 182–185
Single-currency area, effect of
, 94–97, 388
Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM)
, 71, 82, 136, 195–196, 204–206, 211–212
Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM)
, 71, 82, 195, 204–206
synergistic effect of
, 206–209
Southern Eurozone countries
, 228, 250, 270, 425–427
Sovereign debt crisis
, 80, 129, 400
European
, 421–429
sources of
, 418–421
access to global capital markets
, 421
creditor countries
, 420
myopic behavior of domestic governments
, 419
pressure to facilitate consumption of sovereign debt
, 419–420
Stability and Growth Pact (SGP)
, 7, 70, 81, 92, 126, 218, 352
Stability-oriented monetary policy
, 119–120
Standard deviation REER shock
, 263
Structural exogenous shocks
, 259–260
Subprime crisis of the United States
, 308, 400
TARGET2 (Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement Express Transfer System)
, 75, 97–100, 130, 281
balance of crisis countries
, 130
Taylor rule
, 358, 375–383
comparison between country-specific Taylor rule and Eurozone Taylor rule
, 378–380, 382
in countries with fixed exchange rates
, 378
effective interest rates in CESE economies and
, 377
extended
, 380–381
“Great Deviation” hypothesis
, 376–380
identified for the Eurozone
, 375
in peripheral Eurozone countries
, 378–379
seasonal adjustments under
, 375–376
sets of estimations under
, 381–383
simulated
, 375
See also One-size-fits-all monetary policy
Technology intensive activities
, 226
Thirlwall’s law of the growth of income
, 231
Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU; Lisbon Treaty)
, 67, 71
Trichet, Jean-Claude
, 126, 130, 133
Trust
analyses via “Vote and Popularity” (VP) function
, 9
in decision-making bodies
, 4
determinants in European Institutions
, 10
in ECB
, 9–11
economic performance and
, 8–10
in European Institutions
, 11, 14, 16
in national governments and parliaments
, 9
relationship between unemployment and
, 10, 15, 17
Trust, empirical analysis of
data and methodology
, 11–13
dynamic fixed effect (DFE), the Mean Group (MG), and the Pooled mean group (PMG) estimators
, 12
empirical results
, 13–17
error correction form of the model (ECM)
, 11
estimation for the peripheral countries
, 15–16
Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain (PIIGS countries)
, 15