From project risk to complexity analysis: a systematic classification
International Journal of Managing Projects in Business
ISSN: 1753-8378
Article publication date: 17 April 2018
Issue publication date: 17 May 2018
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to provide a systematic classification for frameworks, methods, and models of in-project quantitative risk analysis (IQRA) for the last 30 years.
Design/methodology/approach
An extensive literature review is conducted to identify pertinent IQRA works. Identified IQRA frameworks/methods/models are then classified on the basis of commonalities in key attributes and assumptions. Linkages between each category of IQRAs and dimensions of complexity are also observed.
Findings
Around 70 key publications on IQRAs are identified. Major attributes for each work are described. Five distinct categories of IQRAs emerge with unique linkages to complexity dimensions. An analytical framework in the form of a matrix is presented to illuminate evolution on modeling characteristics and to indicate a relationship between respective category and dimensions of project complexity.
Research limitations/implications
The research coverage is intended to be comprehensive but it is by no means exhaustive. This study highlights research opportunities in IQRAs and the possible extension toward in-project quantitative complexity analysis (IQCA).
Practical implications
The proposed matrix provides guidance to practitioners to select the appropriate category of IQRAs for a specific project complexity type in a contingency fashion. The study highlights lessons from development and utilization of IQRAs. Outstanding issues from IQRAs are discussed to avoid similar drawbacks for IQCAs.
Originality/value
This study provides an original framework/matrix to classify extant works in IQRAs. It also establishes an association between IQRAs and the emerging conceptual works of complexity.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The study is partially funded by a Grant No. 3284/H1.17/PL/2017. The financial support is herewith gratefully acknowledged.
Citation
Hartono, B. (2018), "From project risk to complexity analysis: a systematic classification", International Journal of Managing Projects in Business, Vol. 11 No. 3, pp. 734-760. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJMPB-09-2017-0108
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2018, Emerald Publishing Limited