Which search queries are more powerful in tourism demand forecasting: searches via mobile device or PC?
International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management
ISSN: 0959-6119
Article publication date: 31 May 2021
Issue publication date: 9 August 2021
Abstract
Purpose
While relevant research has considered aggregated data from mobile devices and personal computers (PCs), tourists’ search patterns on mobile devices and PCs differ significantly. This study aims to explore whether decomposing aggregated search queries based on the terminals from which these queries are generated can enhance tourism demand forecasting.
Design/methodology/approach
Mount Siguniang, a national geopark in China, is taken as a case study in this paper; another case, Kulangsu in China, is used as the robustness check. The authors decomposed the total Baidu search volume into searches from mobile devices and PCs. Weekly rolling forecasts were used to test the roles of decomposed and aggregated search queries in tourism demand forecasting.
Findings
Search queries generated from PCs can greatly improve forecasting performance compared to those from mobile devices and to aggregate search volumes from both terminals. Models incorporating search queries generated via multiple terminals did not necessarily outperform those incorporating search queries generated via a single type of terminal.
Practical implications
Major players in the tourism industry, including hotels, tourist attractions and airlines, can benefit from identifying effective search terminals to forecast tourism demand. Industry managers can also leverage search indices generated through effective terminals for more accurate demand forecasting, which can in turn inform strategic decision-making and operations management.
Originality/value
This study represents one of the earliest attempts to apply decomposed search query data generated via different terminals in tourism demand forecasting. It also enriches the literature on tourism demand forecasting using search engine data.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
This study is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71761001), Early Career Scheme from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. 25500520) and the Guangxi Key Research and Development Plan (Guike-AB20297040).
Authors’ note: All three authors contributed equally to the paper.
Citation
Hu, M., Xiao, M. and Li, H. (2021), "Which search queries are more powerful in tourism demand forecasting: searches via mobile device or PC?", International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, Vol. 33 No. 6, pp. 2022-2043. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCHM-06-2020-0559
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
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