Afghan economy

, 138

Afghani currency (AFN)

, 136–137

Afghanistan Transit Trade Agreement (ATTA)

, 112–113

Afghanistan

, 14–16, 125, 132, 157–159, 161, 182–184

AIFTA

, 159

analysis, findings

, 20–35

APTTA

, 159

comparative advantages

, 26–29

economy

, 157–159

ED

, 18, 20

ES

, 19

export survival rates

, 18–20

global trade

, 106–107

Herfindahl-Hirschman product concentration index

, 18

IARTII

, 17–18

IERTII

, 18

IRTS

, 17

overview of trade costs in

, 109–115

performance

, 3–4

policy recommendations

, 35–37

product concentration

, 20–25

product sophistication

, 26

RCA

, 19, 26, 29

regional trade patterns

, 14–17

research methodology

, 17–20

TCI

, 19–20

trade arrangements and regimes

, 135–140

trade complementarities

, 29–35

trade mis-invoicing

, 139–140

trade relations of Afghanistan with SAARC and EU

, 44–47

trade with SAFTA countries

, 158–159, 184–185

Afghanistan–India Free Trade Area (AIFTA)

, 159

Afghanistan–Pakistan Transit and Trade Agreement (APTTA)

, 113, 136–137, 159

Agricultural trade facilitation

, 6–7

Anti-money laundering (AML)

, 133–134

Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN)

, 6, 16, 42, 84, 87

countries

, 89

regions

, 87–90

Association of South-East Asian Nations Free Trade Area (AFTA)

, 156

Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF)

, 189

Augmented-exports supply model

, 5–6

Balance of payments (BoP)

, 63

Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka (BIPS)

, 42–43, 184

trade with

, 184–185

Basel Anti-Money Laundering Index

, 139

Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC)

, 156

Best Linear Unbiased Estimators (BLUE)

, 189

Bilateral Free Trade Agreements (BFTAs)

, 156–157, 165, 167, 174

Afghanistan’s economy

, 157–159

data

, 162–163

empirical connotation

, 160–162

estimates of full panel

, 163, 170, 174

evaluating magnitudes of TC and diversion

, 167–174

factors influencing Afghanistan’s imports

, 164

findings and analysis

, 163–174

full panel

, 169

methodology

, 159–163

model

, 163, 167

policy suggestions

, 176–177

RTA

, 165–166, 169–170, 174

TC and diversion in

, 170

theoretical structure

, 159–160

Bilateral trade agreements

, 87, 157, 159

CAD

, 146

Capital flight

, 131–132

adjusted capital flight

, 144

adjustment of capital flight with trade mis-invoicing

, 141–142

Afghanistan trade arrangements and regimes

, 135–140

capital flight estimates

, 142–146

literature review

, 135

policy suggestions

, 146–148

representation of capital flight based on unadjusted estimates

, 143

research methodology

, 140–142

results

, 142–146

trade mis-invoicing

, 142

Central Asia Region (CAR)

, 13–14, 16, 30

Central Asian republics (CARs)

, 14, 113

Changes in external debt (CED)

, 141

Changes in foreign currency reserve (COR)

, 141

Co-integration test, results of

, 120–121

Coal

, 184–185

Commodities

, 33

Comparative trade analysis, hinge trade as per

, 36

Contiguity

, 118

Copper

, 184–185

Corruption

, 76

Corruption indicator (Cor)

, 67–68

Cross-sectional effects

, 193

Cuddington’s technique

, 144

Current account deficit balance (CAB)

, 141

Data

dataset

, 92

sources

, 92–93

specification of variables

, 188–190

Determinants

, 85–86

of export market diversification

, 84

Diversion

evaluating magnitudes of

, 167–174

TC and diversion in BFTAs

, 170

Drivers of export supply

, 62–63

Dummy variable

, 118

Dynamic gravity framework

, 108–109

Dynamic regional markets

, 33–35

Econometric framework

, 92

Economic Cooperation Organisation Trade Agreement (ECOTA)

, 136–137

Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO)

, 184

Economic growth

, 62, 64

Emotional protectionism

, 186

Empirical connotation

, 160–162

frameworks

, 161–162

Empirical estimation

, 190–191

Empirical model

, 67–68, 117–118

ESCAP Trade Analytics Portal

, 50

Estimations results based on FMOLS

, 73

European Union (EU)

, 42

trade relations of Afghanistan with SAARC and EU

, 44–47

Everything but Arms (EBA)

, 114

Exchange rate (ER)

, 63–64, 109–110

Exploited market opportunities (EMA)

, 33

Export Diversification (ED)

, 15–16, 20

cross-sectional dependence assessment

, 93

data sources

, 92–93

dataset and econometric framework

, 92

empirical findings based on unit root

, 93–95

export diversification of SAARC and ASEAN

, 89

findings and analysis

, 93–97

FMOLS results

, 96

fully modified least squares empirical results

, 95–97

HH market concentration index of SAARC and ASEAN

, 90

literature review

, 85–87

measurement of export diversification

, 91

nature and determinants

, 85–86

overview of ASEAN and SAARC regions

, 87–90

policies

, 36

policy implications

, 98

research methodology

, 91–93

results of co-integration test

, 94

results of IPS Test

, 94

SAARC and ASEAN countries’ economic indicators

, 88

strategies

, 85

theoretical foundations

, 86–87

Export Sophistication (ES)

, 19

Export Survival Rates (ESR)

, 18–19, 23, 25

Exports

, 63–64, 84, 90

demand model

, 5–6

growth process

, 63

revenues

, 4

supply

, 62–63, 66–67, 73

External variables

, 62

Fixed effect estimation technique

, 189

Fixed effect method

, 191

Foreign currency exchange rate (EXCH)

, 121

Foreign direct investment (FDI)

, 36, 73–75, 85

Free trade agreement (FTA)

, 50, 156

Full panel, estimates of

, 170–174

Fully modified least squares empirical results

, 95–97

Fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS)

, 68–69, 94–95, 120–121

empirical findings based on

, 121–124

estimation

, 70, 73

findings

, 72

General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)

, 42

General equilibrium effects (GEE)

, 162

General gravity equation

, 189

Global trade, complementarities in

, 29–31

Government institutions

, 196

Gravity equation

, 47–48, 117

Gravity model

, 5, 47, 49

Gravity trade models

, 43, 196–197

Greater openness

, 66–67

Gross domestic product (GDP)

, 74–75, 184

Gross fixed capital development (GFCD)

, 86

Harmonised System (HS)

, 20

Hawalla systems

, 139

Herfindahl index

, 91

Herfindahl-Hirschman Product Concentration Index (HH Product Concentration Index)

, 18, 23

Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI)

, 89–90

Heritage Foundation’s databank, The

, 191

Higher Commission of Investment (HCI)

, 133–134

Im, Pesaran and Shin (IPS)

, 93

Imperfect substitute model (ISM)

, 66

Import compression (IC)

, 66

Importers

, 140

Imports

, 72–73

Increased penetration in stagnant markets (IPSM)

, 33

Instrumentation of variables

, 188–190

Inter-level, regional products traded at

, 20–23

Inter-Regional Trade (IRT)

, 16–17

Inter-Regional Trade Intensity Index (IERTII)

, 18

Inter-Trade

, 14–17

Interdependence of policies

, 36

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

, 136

International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)

, 47

International trade

, 183, 187

Intra-level, regional products traded at

, 20–23

Intra-regional trade

, 16

Intra-Regional Trade Intensity Index (IARTII)

, 17–18

Intra-regional trade share (IRTS)

, 16–17

of SA

, 16

Intra-Trade

, 14–17

Investment

, 75

Iron ore

, 184–185

Kao cointegration test

, 68–69

Kyrgyzstan’s economy

, 15

Latency

, 26

of trade integration

, 29

Levin, Lin and Chu (LLC)

, 93, 189–190

Liner shipping connectivity index (LSCI)

, 118

Magnitudes of TC and diversion, evaluating

, 167–174

Mathematical connotation

, 119

Mathematical gravity theory

, 115–116

Measurement

, 115–116, 118

Memorandums of understanding (MoUs)

, 112–113

Ministry of Commerce, Industry, and Trade (MoCIT)

, 196

Ministry of Economy (MoE)

, 196

Model estimation and results

, 191–194

Multi-country generalised equilibrium method

, 116

Multilateral Resistance Term (MRT)

, 160

Multilateral trade agreement (MTA)

, 54

Multilateral treaties

, 42

Natural gas

, 184–185

Natural resources

, 184–185

Net acquisition foreign assets (NAFA)

, 141

Net foreign direct investment (NFDI)

, 141

Newton’s gravitational law

, 115

Newton’s law

, 159

Newton’s theory of gravitation

, 47–48

Non-tariff barriers (NTBs)

, 6–7, 105–106, 182

Non-tariff measures (NTMs)

, 7–8, 182, 195–196

Afghanistan’s economy

, 184–185

data specification, instrumentation and operationalisation of variables

, 188–190

effects of NTMs protection on Afghanistan exports

, 193

empirical estimation

, 190–191

exports from Afghanistan to BIPS

, 185–186

fixed effects on Afghanistan’s exports

, 193

limitations and future scope of study

, 196–197

LLC unit root test results

, 189

model estimation and results

, 191–194

operationalisation of variables

, 190

recommendations

, 196

research methodology

, 188–191

results, analysis

, 191–195

scholarship review on NTMs to trade in SAARC region

, 186–188

North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)

, 42

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

, 47

Novy’s method

, 108–109

Null hypothesis

, 93

Operationalisation of variables

, 188–190

Ordinary least square (OLS)

, 68–69, 94–95, 162, 189

Outward multilateral resistance (OMR)

, 116

Over-invoicing

, 140

Over-reporting

, 139–140

Pakistan–Afghanistan Transit Trade Agreement’

, 85

Panel

cointegration examination

, 68

data estimate methods

, 124

Panel Unit Root Test (PURT)

, 189

Passage to Prosperity (P2P)

, 112–113

Pedroni cointegration test

, 70

Performance indicators

, 29–30

Petroleum

, 184–185

Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML)

, 162

Policy

enunciations

, 75–76

simulation

, 49

Policymakers

, 48

Pre-shock trade potential results

, 51

Prebisch–Singer hypothesis (PSH)

, 86–87

Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA)

, 111, 156

Product

concentration

, 20–25

ESR

, 23–25

exports

, 33–35

HH product concentration index

, 23

regional products traded at intra-and inter-level

, 20–23

sophistication

, 26

Protectionism’

, 192–193

R-square

, 122–124

RCA values

, 27–28

Recital

, 44–47

Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)

, 186

Regional policies, interdependence of

, 36

Regional products traded at intra-and inter-level

, 20–23

Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs)

, 37, 42, 87, 156–157, 159, 165–166, 169–170, 174

Afghanistan’s economy

, 157–159

BFTA

, 165, 167, 174

data

, 162–163

empirical connotation

, 160–162

estimates of full panel

, 163

estimates of full panel

, 170–174

evaluating magnitudes of TC and diversion

, 167–174

factors influencing Afghanistan’s imports

, 164

findings and analysis

, 163–174

full panel

, 169

methodology

, 159–163

model

, 163, 167

policy suggestions

, 176–177

TC and diversion in BFTAs

, 170

theoretical structure

, 159–160

Regional trade patterns

, 14–17

intra-regional trade

, 16

IRT

, 16–17

Relative pricing (RP)

, 72

Research and development (R&D)

, 36

Researchers

, 48, 107

Restrictions

, 182–183, 187

Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA)

, 19, 26, 29

Sanitary and Phytosanitary regulations [SPS]

, 183

Sectoral trade, costs of

, 110–115

trade cost estimate equivalents

, 111–112

Single-factor method

, 93

South Asia (SA)

, 13–15, 106–107

South Asia Preferential Trade Agreement (SAPTA)

, 42, 171–172

South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)

, 5–6, 17, 42, 62, 84, 157–158

cross-sectional dependence test for FMOLS residuals

, 72

data and procedures for assessment

, 66–67

empirical model

, 67–68

estimation of Kao Cointegration test

, 69

estimations results based on FMOLS

, 73

FMOLS estimation

, 70–71

literature review

, 63–65

methodology

, 65–68

Pedroni cointegration test

, 70

policy enunciations

, 75–76

policy recommendations

, 76

region

, 8, 87, 90

results and analysis

, 68–75

scholarship review on NTMs to trade in SAARC region

, 186–188

statistics of model fitness

, 71

test for stationarity

, 69

trade relations of Afghanistan with

, 44–47

South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA)

, 7–8, 42, 50, 156–157

trade with SAFTA countries

, 158–159

Special and Differential mechanisms (S & D mechanisms)

, 184–185

Subject matter

, 106

Tariffs

, 118, 121

rate coefficient

, 165

reductions

, 182

Technical innovation (TI)

, 66–67

Time-fixed effect

, 161

Tobit model

, 107–108

Trade

, 42, 182

basket

, 34–35

with BIPS

, 184–185

compatibility analysis

, 30

complementarities in global and bilateral trade

, 29, 31, 35

matching top regional imports with top product exports

, 32–33

product exports and dynamic regional markets

, 33–35

with SAFTA countries

, 158–159

simulation equation

, 50

statistics

, 182–183

trade potential after calibrating

, 52–53

Trade Complementarity Index (TCI)

, 19–20

Trade costs (TC)

, 109–111, 114–115

co-integration test results

, 120–121

costs of sectoral trade

, 110–115

cross model coefficients based on Z-Scores

, 124

descriptive statistics summary

, 119

empirical findings based on FMOLS

, 121–124

empirical model

, 117–118

FMOLS-based empirical results

, 122–123

in Afghanistan

, 109–115

literature review

, 107–109

LLC test for stationarity

, 120

mathematical connotation

, 119

policy recommendations

, 125

policy suggestions

, 124–125

research methodology

, 115–119

results

, 119–124

summary figures

, 119

theoretical framework

, 115–117

unit root test results

, 120

Trade creation (TC)

, 156–157

coefficients

, 166–167

and diversion in BFTAs

, 170

equation

, 170

evaluating magnitudes of

, 167–174

Trade diversion equation (TD equation)

, 156–157, 170

Trade Facilitating Agreement (TFA)

, 37

Trade liberalisation programme

, 158–159

Trade mis-invoicing

, 139–140

Trade mis–invoicing, adjustment of capital flight with

, 141–142

Trade potential

, 50

Afghanistan’s exports and imports from SAARC and EU

, 45–46

after calibrating trade simulation

, 52–53

future scope

, 55

gravity model

, 47–49

policy recommendations

, 54–55

policy simulation

, 49

pre-shock trade potential results

, 51

research methodology

, 47–49

results

, 49–53

trade potential after calibrating trade simulation

, 52–53

trade relations of Afghanistan with SAARC and EU

, 44–47

trade simulation and trade potential of Afghanistan with South Asian and EU countries

, 50–51

Trade reform (TR)

, 63

process

, 5–6, 72

TRI index

, 182–183

UNCTAD study

, 187

Under–invoicing

, 139–140

Unit root test results

, 120

World Bank approach, The

, 141, 144

World Development Indicators (WDI)

, 66

World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS)

, 55

World Trade Organisation (WTO)

, 15, 112–113, 133–134, 156