Adaptation
, 9–10
continuous monitoring and adaptation
, 10
Aggregated average notional amount (AANA)
, 124–125
Aggregation criteria
, 153
Alternative theories of customer prepayments
, 173–174
Anti-money laundering (AML)
, 7
Archegos Capital Management
, 91, 123, 126, 134
collapse triggered by margin calls
, 128
incentives for market manipulations
, 127–128
insufficient initial margin
, 132–134
large total return swap exposures
, 126–127
liquidation of hedge positions
, 129–132
Archegos transactions, CCR RWA for
, 140–141
Artificial intelligence (AI)
, 4, 95
in banking processes
, 4
Asset–liability committees (ALCOs)
, 11, 13, 15, 160, 188
Asset–Liability Management (ALM)
, 6, 65, 147, 157, 181
banks benefit in terms of
, 67–68
discipline
, 13–18
forecasts
, 152
management information
, 153
Association of Chartered Certified Accountants, The (ACCA)
, 28–29
Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA)
, 101
Automation in banking processes, harnessing
, 4
Average mortgage rates
, 172
Backward looking analysis
, 85
Balance guarantee swaps (BGS)
, 165–166
Balance sheet availability
, 208–209
Balance sheet management
, 41
building robust risk management frameworks and
, 5–7
Balance sheet optimization
efficiency and cost reduction
, 153
investors increased scrutiny
, 152–153
need for
, 151–152
speed of change
, 152–153
Balance sheet projection
, 156
Bank accountable
, 56
issue
, 56–60
Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
, 123–124
Bank Green Bond Issuance, trends in
, 70
Bank regulation
back to normal
, 91–92
Basel
, 95–96
Credit Suisse
, 94
March 2020
, 89–90
non-financial bank intermediaries
, 90–91
stability
, 88–89
US Regional banks
, 92–93
Bank strategy
, 27–28, 30–31
bottom line
, 27
and communication
, 80–81
direct drivers
, 27
indirect drivers
, 27
trade-offs and cost of capital
, 27–28
Bank Term Funding Programme (BTFP)
, 93
Banking
, 21, 86
balance sheet management
, 47
benefits of strategic partnerships in
, 9
challenges
, 176
changing customer expectations in
, 8
harnessing automation and AI in
, 4
importance of digital transformation in
, 4
industry
, 4
leveraging data analytics and cloud computing in
, 4–5
professionals
, 45
system
, 89
Banks
, 18, 36–37, 54, 56–57, 79, 81–82, 85–86, 92, 187–188, 190
benefit in terms of ALM
, 67–68
embedding strategic risk management in
, 37–38
evolving risk landscape for
, 5
failures
, 80
green bond strategy
, 70–72
green bonds for
, 67–68, 70
risks for banks as clearers
, 137–138
treasurers
, 65, 72
Basel Committee
, 36, 92, 95–96, 100, 103–104
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS)
, 25–26, 69, 87, 97, 124–125
principles
, 100
Behavioural modelling
, 169
Biennial exploratory scenario (BES)
, 69–70
Bond CTD
, 199–204
calculation methods
, 199–201
impact of carry
, 204
impact of curve and relative value moves
, 203
flat curve and impact of market direction
, 201–203
Borrower demographics
, 174
Bottom-up processes
, 69–70
Business
, 82
analysis
, 32
architecture
, 33
for banks
, 10
case approach
, 35–36
changing
, 12
digital transformation
, 4–5
landscape
, 10
recommendations
, 21–23
revenue
, 45
risks
, 111
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
, 35
Capital regulation, deficiencies in
, 138–144
Carry
, 196
impact of
, 204
Central clearing counterparty (CCP)
, 89–90, 124–126
Cheapest to deliver (CTD)
, 206
calculation methods
, 199–201
definition
, 200
Chinese American Depository Receipts (ADRs)
, 126
Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI)
, 71
Climate change
, 51, 65–66
Climate risk
, 56–57, 65–66
Climate risk stress test (2022)
, 103
Climate-related financial risks
, 95, 97, 104
data limitations
, 103–104
emphasis on financial risks
, 101
long-term horizon
, 101–103
risk coverage
, 101
scenario analyses and stress testing
, 103
selective list of climate-related publications
, 98–100
Climate-related risks
, 101
Climate-risk governance
, 70
Cloud computing in banking
, 4–5
Collateralisation
, 124–125
Commodity markets
, 134–135
Communication, bank strategy and
, 80–81
Competitive advantage
, 42
Competitive pressures
, 10
Competitive priorities for resilient banks
, 12
back to basics
, 13–18
risk culture
, 18–21
Complex liability chains
, 136–137
Consumer Protection Act
, 87
Converted forward price
, 198
Core
, 190
balances
, 190–191
Counterparty credit risk (CCR)
, 123–124, 126
Archegos capital management
, 126–134
central clearing counterparty
, 125–126
clearing risks in energy crisis
, 134–138
collateralisation
, 124–125
deficiencies in capital regulation
, 138–144
lessons learned and recommendations
, 144
losses from unwinding of hedge positions in Viacom CBS shares
, 142
RWA for Archegos transactions
, 140–141
Counterparty exposures
, 144
COVID-19 pandemic
, 41–42, 46, 82, 170
Credit default swap (CDS)
, 19
Credit derivative protection
, 85
Credit risk
, 25–26
management
, 6–7, 43–44
Credit Suisse (CS)
, 19, 94
recent examples of bank failures include
, 80
Credit valuation adjustment (CVA)
, 96
Cryptos
, 104–112
assessing, selecting and risk managing crypto business models
, 111–112
BCBS Prudential Treatment Standard for
, 105
implications for practitioners
, 106–112
indicative financial and non-financial risks associated with crypto-related activities
, 113
monitoring and managing risks of non-participation
, 111
monitoring regulatory and industry body developments
, 107
Curve and relative value moves, impact of
, 203
Customer behaviour analysis
, 174
Customer behaviour modelling
, 173
Customer expectations in banking
, 8
Customer experience
, 8–9
changing customer expectations in banking
, 8
embracing customer-centric technologies
, 8
leveraging data analytics for customer insights
, 8–9
Customer prepayments, alternative theories of
, 173–174
Customer-centric technologies, embracing
, 8
Customers best interests
, 79
Cybersecurity and compliance, strengthening
, 7
Data analytics
for customer insights
, 8–9
leveraging data analytics in banking
, 4–5
Debt Management Office (DMO)
, 204, 213
December 22/March 23 Gilt Roll
, 212–213
Deficiencies in capital regulation
, 138–144
CCR RWA for Archegos transactions
, 140–141
RWA for clearing exposures with clients
, 141–144
shortcomings in SA-CCR
, 138–140
Deposit balance analysis
, 47
Deposit protection scheme
, 80
Deutschmark swap rate (DM swap rate)
, 184–185
Digital transformation
, 4–5
customer experience
, 8–9
harnessing automation and AI in banking processes
, 4
importance of digital transformation in banking
, 4
innovation and adaptation
, 9–10
leveraging data analytics and cloud computing in banking
, 4–5
risk management
, 5–7
strategic partnerships
, 9
Discretionary spending
, 44–45
Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform
, 87
Duration
, 202
caps on NMDs
, 191
Early repayment charges (ERCs)
, 174–176
Early warning indicator
, 81
Economic uncertainty
, 170
Effective balance sheet management
, 6–7
Energy crisis
, 134–138
clearing risks in
, 134–138
Energy firms, liquidity challenges for
, 135–136
Energy prices, spike in
, 134–135
Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)
, 26
Enterprise Risk Oversight Committee (EROC)
, 36–37
Enterprise wide funds transfer pricing framework
, 155
Environmental, social and governance (ESG)
, 58–59, 71
European Banking Authority (EBA)
, 69, 191
European Central Bank (ECB)
, 101, 138
European Commodity Clearing (ECC)
, 141–143
European Energy Exchange (EEX)
, 136
European Investment Bank
, 70
European Union (EU)
, 52–53
Exchange traded derivatives (ETD)
, 126
contracts
, 136
transactions
, 137, 141, 143
Far value losses (FV losses)
, 182, 187
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)
, 93, 100
Financed emissions
, 56–57
Financial Conduct Authority (FCA)
, 58, 84
Financial crisis (2007–2008)
, 124–125
Financial institutions
, 46, 67, 107, 111, 173–174
Financial market uncertainty
, 43
Financial risks, emphasis on
, 101
Financial Stability Board (FSB)
, 65–66, 87–88, 90, 104
First notice day
, 197–198
First Republic Bank
, 13, 93
Flat curve and impact of market direction
, 201–203
Forward starting swaps
, 158–159
Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB)
, 96
Funding concentration
, 18
Funding mix optimisation
, 43
Funds transfer pricing (FTP)
, 155
Future prepayment rates
, 176
Futures delivery
hedging the tail
, 207–208
timing of delivery
, 209–210
G20 (International organisations)
, 65–66, 87
General collateral (GC)
, 204
Gilt futures basis
balance sheet availability
, 208–209
basic principles
, 196–199
bond CTD
, 199–204
carry and timing of delivery
, 209–210
case study
, 210–213
December 2022 gilt future
, 210–212
December 22/March 23 Gilt Roll
, 212–213
definitions
, 196–198
delivery
, 198–199
issues
, 208–210
selected basis trading strategies
, 206–208
theory of net basis pricing
, 204–206
trading basis
, 198
Gilt-edged market maker (GEMM)
, 204
Gilts
, 197–198
delivery process
, 198–199
market
, 204
Global Financial Crisis (GFC)
, 87
Globally Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs)
, 19, 87–88, 140–141
Governance
, 70
frameworks
, 19, 21
Governing principles
, 79–80
Governments
, 54
policy
, 175
Green bonds
, 65–66, 68
for banks
, 67–68, 70
issuance
, 69–70
issuing
, 72
valuation of
, 66–67
Greenhouse gas emissions (GHG emissions)
, 56–57
Gross domestic product (GDP)
, 44, 48–49
Indirect credit exposure
, 111
Indirect investment exposure
, 111
Industry body developments
monitoring
, 107
selective regulatory and industry body publications pertaining to cryptos
, 107–110
Inflationary pressures
, 48
Innovation
, 9–10
differentiation through
, 10
Insufficient initial margin
, 132–134
losses from counterparty default on Viacom CBS total return swaps
, 133–134
Interconnectedness risks
, 111
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)
, 136, 198–199
Interest rate incentives
, 173
Interest Rate Option (IRO)
, 165
Interest rates
, 44, 46, 170
outlook
, 150–151
volatility
, 81
Interest Transfer Pricing (ITP)
, 149
Interest-rate risk (IRR)
, 147, 169, 181
Interest-rate risk in banking book (IRRBB)
, 13, 15, 147, 157, 165, 181, 183
interest rate outlook
, 150–151
legacy process architecture
, 147–150
need for balance sheet optimisation
, 151–152
target operating model in treasury
, 153–156
Internal and external factors in banking
, 174
Internal rate of return (IRR)
, 13, 15, 159, 199–200
Internal ratings-based approach (IRB)
, 139–140
International Capital Market Association (ICMA)
, 72
International Finance Corporation (IFC)
, 71
International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS)
, 124, 151
International organisations
, 65–66
International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO)
, 124–125
International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB)
, 95
International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA)
, 125
Investors
, 66, 94
increased scrutiny
, 152–153
Legacy process architecture
, 147–150
based in Silos
, 148
calculations
, 149–150
data
, 149
modelling/scenarios
, 149
process
, 149
reporting
, 150
Liability Driven Investment (LDI)
, 91
Liability management programme
, 71
Liquidation of hedge positions
, 129–132
Viacom CBS share price and trading volume
, 130
Liquidity challenges
, 169
for energy firms
, 135–136
Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR)
, 15
Liquidity risks
, 25–26, 111
management
, 6
Liquidity Transfer Pricing (LTP)
, 149
Loan-to-value (LTV)
, 43–44
ratios
, 174
Loans
, 166
defaults
, 46
origination process
, 166
prepayments
, 169
London Institute of Banking and Finance, The (LIBF)
, 25–26
Long-term horizon
, 101–103
Low interest rates
, 42–44
Lower/net zero carbon economy
, 56
Lowest net basis
, 199–200
Machine learning
, 7–9, 95
Macroeconomic conditions
, 47
Macroeconomic forces
, 47–48
Macroeconomic theory
, 175
of prepayments
, 173
‘March 2020 Episode’, The
, 89
Margin calls, collapse triggered by
, 128
Market direction, flat curve and impact of
, 201–203
Market manipulations
incentives for
, 127–128
sensitivity of total return swap variation margin cash flows
, 128
Materiality of structural IRR
, 182–184
Modelling prepayments
, 169
Money printing. See Quantitative easing
Mortgage prepayment analysis
, 169
Mortgage product lifecycle
, 175
Mortgage term assessment
, 172
Performance measurement
, 7
Personal Protection Insurance (PPI)
, 84
‘Pillar 2 liquidity’ guidance from regulatory authority (PRA)
, 15
Pipeline hedging
, 157–158
Political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental (PESTLE)
, 30
Positive carry bonds
, 196
Post-pandemic inflation
, 92
Potential future exposure (PFE)
, 139–140
Potential risk of loss
, 85
Predicting Customer Behaviour
, 173
Predictive analytics
, 8–9
Prepayment assumptions
, 175–176
Prepayment hedging
, 164–166
Prepayment methodology
, 171
Prepayment phenomenon
, 164
Prepayment risk exposure
, 164
Price value of 01 (PV01)
, 202
Probability of default (PD)
, 85, 139–140
Profitability measurement
, 7
Project management
, 32–33
Project Portfolio management
, 33–34
Proportionality in prepayments
, 175
Prudential Regulatory Authority (PRA)
, 69
Rate incentive approach
, 169–170, 172, 175
alternative theories of customer prepayments
, 173–174
background
, 171–172
ERCs
, 174–175
retrospective testing
, 172–173
Re-investment process
, 186, 188–190
Realistic projections
, 176
Regulatory and industry body developments
monitoring
, 107
selective regulatory and industry body publications
, 107–110
Regulatory concepts of stable and core NMDs
, 182
Relative value analysis
, 203
Replacement cost (RC)
, 139–140
Repurchase agreement (“Repo”)
, 196
market
, 204
transaction
, 196, 204
Resilient banks, competitive priorities for
, 12
Retrospective analysis
, 172, 188, 190
Retrospective testing
, 172–173
Return on assets (ROA)
, 7, 27
Return on capital (ROC)
, 27–28
Return on equity (ROE)
, 7, 27, 183
Return on invest (ROI)
, 34–35
Riding the yield curve strategy
, 157
Risk
, 25–26
appetite
, 43–44, 85–86
for banks as clearers
, 137–138
complex liability chains
, 136–137
culture
, 18, 21, 80
in energy crisis
, 134–138
huge margin shortfalls
, 136
issues
, 83
landscape for banks
, 5
liquidity challenges for energy firms
, 135–136
migration
, 86
mitigation
, 68
of non-participation, monitoring and managing
, 111
register
, 34
spike in energy prices
, 134–135
Risk coverage
, 101
risk types and associated climate-related risk drivers
, 102
Risk management
, 5, 7, 85–86
ALM
, 6
building robust risk management frameworks and balance sheet management
, 5–7
capital adequacy and capital allocation
, 6
credit risk management
, 6–7
evolving risk landscape for banks
, 5
liquidity risk management
, 6
principles
, 18
profitability and performance measurement
, 7
strengthening cybersecurity and compliance
, 7
Risk management frameworks (RMF)
, 6, 68
Risk-weighted Assets (RWA)
, 139–140
for clearing exposures with clients
, 141–144
potential future exposure, RWA and Basel III total capital requirement
, 143
Risk–Adjusted Return on Capital methods (RAROC methods)
, 6, 34–35
Robotic process automation (RPA)
, 4
Safeguarding stability in uncertain times
, 5–7
Seasonality in lending
, 174
Senate Banking Committee
, 93
Silicon Valley Bank (SVB)
, 13, 16, 92, 182
lessons from failure of
, 190–191
recent examples of bank failures include
, 80
Solid governance model
, 71
Stamp duty holiday
, 170, 173
Standard Initial Margin Model (SIMM)
, 125
Standardized Approach for CCR (SA-CCR)
, 138–140
Strategic Direction and Monitoring Committee (SDMC)
, 37
Strategic execution and monitoring
, 33
Strategic learning
, 33–34
Strategic management
, 26–27
Strategic partnerships
, 9
benefits of strategic partnerships in banking
, 9
establishing effective partnership strategies
, 9
Strategic risk management
, 36
bank strategy
, 27–28, 30–31
in banking
, 28–29
cycle
, 31–34
embedding strategic risk management in banks
, 37–38
modelling
, 34–36
other risk
, 25–26
proposed strategic risk management system
, 36–38
SDMC
, 37
sources of
, 29
strategy vs. strategic management
, 26–27
Strategic Risk Register
, 37
Strategy
, 26–27, 34
development
, 33–34, 37
maps
, 32
Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats analysis (SWOT analysis)
, 25–26, 30
Structural hedging
, 158–162
current accounts
, 162–163
example
, 158–159, 162–163
Structural interest-rate risk hedging
duration caps on NMDs
, 191
lessons from failure of SVB
, 190–191
materiality of structural IRR
, 182–184
performance of NMD investment book
, 185–188
practical implications
, 191–192
stable and core balances
, 190–191
suspending re-investment
, 188–190
theory of cyclical smoothing
, 184–185
Supervisory Principles
, 114–121
Sustainability
, 67
nurturing
, 82
Sustainable banking
bank strategy and communication
, 80–81
governing principles, stability and regulation
, 79–80
nurturing sustainability and not panicking
, 82
recent examples of bank failures include SVB and CS
, 80
Sustainable finance
, 71–72
Sustainable/sustainability
, 56–57
Swap position management
, 175
Swiss National Bank, The
, 94