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Prelims

Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Greece

ISBN: 978-1-80071-123-5, eISBN: 978-1-80071-122-8

Publication date: 4 November 2021

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Citation

(2021), "Prelims", Vlachos, V., Bitzenis, A. and Sergi, B.S. (Ed.) Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Greece (Entrepreneurship and Global Economic Growth), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. i-xx. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-80071-122-820211024

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Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2022 by Emerald Publishing Limited

Half Title Page

Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Greece

Series Title Page

Entrepreneurship and Global Economic Growth

Series editor: Bruno S. Sergi, Harvard University, USA & University of Messina, Italy

Entrepreneurship and Global Economic Growth is Emerald's cutting-edge Global Economic Growth book series, presenting modern examinations of economic growth at national, regional, and global levels. Each book in this series discusses different dimensions of the changing economic and industrial contexts and examines in detail their impact on the nature of growth and development. For academics and senior practitioners, this series puts forward significant new research in the global economic growth field, opening discussions regarding new topics and updating existing literature.

Published titles in this series:

Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Russia, edited by Bruno S. Sergi

Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Belarus, edited by Bruno S. Sergi

Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Malaysia, edited by Bruno S. Sergi and Abdul Rahman Jaaffar

Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Hong Kong, Edited by Michael K. Fung (emeraldinsight.com)

Title Page

Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Greece

Edited by

Vasileios Vlachos

International Hellenic University, Greece

Aristidis Bitzenis

University of Macedonia, Greece

And

Bruno S. Sergi

Harvard University, USA & University of Messina, Italy

United Kingdom – North America – Japan – India – Malaysia – China

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Emerald Publishing Limited

Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley BD16 1WA, UK

First edition 2022

Copyright © 2022 by Emerald Publishing Limited

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ISBN: 978-1-80071-123-5 (Print)

ISBN: 978-1-80071-122-8 (Online)

ISBN: 978-1-80071-124-2 (Epub)

List of Figures

Figure 1.1. Greece: GDP, 1995–2019.
Figure 1.2. Greece: Changes in GDP per Capita and Labor Productivity, 1995–2019.
Figure 1.3. Greece: Gross Value Added by 10 Industries, 2001–2019.
Figure 2.1. Macroeconomic Indicators: Greece and Euro Area, 1999–2019.
Figure 4.1. Correlogram of Real GDP Series (First Differences).
Figure 4.2. Diagnostic Residuals' Autocorrelation Test of ARIMA (1,1,1) Model.
Figure 4.3. ARCH(q) Test.
Figure 4.4. Static and Dynamic Forecast of DGDP.
Figure 8.1. Hourly Wages in Selected Industries, Structure of Earnings Survey, 2010–2014.
Figure 9.1. Productivity Distribution (In Logs) of Greek SMEs, 2012.
Figure 9.2. Driving Forces of SME Productivity per Quantile in Greece.
Figure 11.1. The Chronology of the Greek Crisis.
Figure 12.1. Agricultural Entrepreneurial and Factor Income per AWU (in Real Values) in Greece and EU.
Figure 12.2. Evolution of Agricultural Incomes.
Figure 12.3. Evolution of Trade Balance for Agri-food Products for the Period 2010–2020.
Figure 12.4. Trade Balance in Terms of Volume and Terms of Trade.
Figure 12.5. Relationship between Trade of Balance (in Terms of Volume) and Terms of Trade.
Figure 12.6. Derivation of the Lorenz Curve and Gini Coefficient for Direct Payments in Greece and EU in 2015.
Figure 12.7. Gross Value Added, Agriculture and Agri-food Sector in Greece (2000–2019).
Figure 12.8. Evolution of Agri-food Sector in Greece (2008–2017).
Figure 14.1. Performance Overview of the Travel and Tourism Sector for 2019.
Figure 14.2. Monthly Distribution of Nights Spent in Tourist Accommodation Establishments (Countries with High Seasonality) 2019 (%).
Figure 14.3. The Evolution of the Hotel Occupancy 2016–2019.
Figure 15.1. Share of ICT Infrastructure (ICT Equipment and Computer Software and Databases) to Total Fixed Assets (Stock) for the Major Sectors in the Greek Economy (2009–2017).
Figure 15.2. Direct, Indirect and Induced Effects of the ICT Sector in Terms of GDP (at Producer Prices) for 2015.
Figure 15.3. Backward and Forward Indices of Variability per Sector of the Economy Including the ICT Sector for 2015.

List of Tables

Table 3.1. Selected Indicators for Greece: Restoring Fiscal Sustainability, 2010–2021.
Table 3.2. Selected Indicators for Greece: Safeguarding Financial Stability Administration, 2010–2021.
Table 3.3. Selected Indicators for Greece: Growth, Competitiveness and Investment, 2010–2021.
Table 3.4. Selected Indicators for Greece: Social Inequalities, 2010–2021.
Table 4.1. GDP Descriptive Statistics in Levels and First Differences.
Table 4.2. ADF and Phillip-Perron's Test.
Table 4.3. Comparison of Models within the Range of Exploration Using AIC, SIC, and HQ.
Table 4.4. Comparison of Models within the Range of Exploration Using AIC, SIC, and HQ.
Table 4.5. Estimation Model ARIMA (1,1,1).
Table 4.6. ARCH(1) Model Estimation.
Table 4.7. Estimation of ARIMA(1,1,1)-ARCH(1) Model.
Table 5.1. Real GDP Growth Rate, 2009–2020.
Table 5.2. Monthly Minimum Wages in Europe (Bi-annual Data), 2016–2020.
Table 5.3. Human Development Index (HDI) Ranking 2019.
Table 5.4. Total Unemployment Rate [TPS00203], Annual, 2008–2019, from 15 to 74 Years, Percentage of Active Population.
Table 5.5. GDP per Capita in PPS [TEC00114], 2009–2019.
Table 6.1. Regression Estimates of the Effects of the Specified Independent Variables on the Level of Real GDP per Capita at the World Level.
Table 6.2. Regression Estimates of the Effects of the Specified Independent Variables on the Level of Real GDP per Capita for Greece.
Table 8.1. Mean Wages by Industry, Structure of Earnings Survey, 2010–2014.
Table 8.2. Industry Wage Differentials along the Distribution, Structure of Earnings Survey, 2010–2014.
Table 9.1. Summary Statistics: Productivity of Greek SMEs.
Table 9.2. Description of Variables and Frequency Distributions: Human Capital, ICT Adoption and Innovation of Greek SMEs.
Table 9.3. Correlation Matrix: Human Capital, ICT Adoption and Innovation of Greek SMEs.
Table 9.4. Determinants of SME Productivity in Greece: OLS and Quantile Regression Estimation Results.
Table 11.1. Evolution of Greek Loans and Non-performing Loans.
Table 11.2. Net Credit Flows to Greek Public and Private Sectors by Domestic MFIs.
Table 11.3. Credit to the Greek Economy by Domestic MFIs.
Table 11.4. Foreign Direct Investment in Greece by Country of Origin.
Table 11.5. Foreign Direct Investment in Greece by Sector of Economic Activity.
Table 11.6. Key Financial Data of the Greek Banking Sector.
Table 12.1. Greek versus EU-27 Agriculture's Fundamentals.
Table 13.1. Hydrocarbons Exploration and Production Agreements Ratified by the Greek Parliament between 2014 and 2019.
Table 13.2. Royalty Percentage by R Factor as Stipulated in the Lease Agreements Ratified by the Greek Parliament between 2014 and 2019.
Table 13.3. Surface Fees as Stipulated in the Lease Agreements Ratified by the Greek Parliament between 2014 and 2019.
Table 13.4. Economic Terms of Lease Agreements Signed in Greece between 2014 and 2019.
Table 14.1. International Tourism Arrivals in Greece 2014–2019.
Table 14.2. Increase of Arrival versus Increase in Revenues between 2015 and 2021.
Table 14.3. Scenarios on the Impact of COVID-19 on Greece's GDP for 2020.
Table 15.1. Basic Indicators for the ICT Sector (2011, 2015, and 2018).
Table 15.2. The Economic Footprint of the Greek ICT Sector.
Table 15.3. Impact of Greek ICT Sector by Affected Economic Sector and Economic Aspect of Interest, for Total Effects and Excluding Internal ICT Consumption for 2015.
Table 16.1. Transportation and Storage Industry GVA, Employment and Fixed Assets in Greece and EU (Percent of Total).

List of Contributors

Aristidis Bitzenis University of Macedonia, Greece
Efthymios Bourtzalas MSB Associates, Belgium
Mark Clough QC Dentons Europe LLP, Belgium
Petros Dimas National Technical University of Athens, Greece
Chaido Dritsaki University of Western Macedonia, Greece
Melina Dritsaki University of Oxford, UK and University of Western Macedonia, Greece
Ioannis Giotopoulos University of Peloponnese, Greece
Konstantinos J. Hazakis Democritus University of Thrace, Greece
Iordanis Katemliadis City Unity College Nicosia, Cyprus
Stathis Klonaris Agricultural University of Athens, Greece
Pelagia Kontaxaki University of Peloponnese, Greece
Helen Louri Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece
Dimitris Manolopoulos Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece
Tania Pantazi University of the Aegean, Greece
Pyrros Papadimitriou University of Peloponnese, Greece
Evangelia Papapetrou National and Kapodistrian University of Athens and Bank of Greece, Greece
Andreas Papatheodorou University of the Aegean, Greece
Fotios Pasiouras Montpellier Business School, France
Bruno S. Sergi Harvard University, USA & University of Messina, Italy
Dimitrios Stamopoulos National Technical University of Athens, Greece
Minas-Polyvios Tsagkarakis Technical University of Crete, Greece
Aggelos Tsakanikas National Technical University of Athens (NTUA), Greece
Pinelopi Tsalaporta National and Kapodistrian University of Athens and Bank of Greece, Greece
Stella Tsani University of Ioannina, Greece
Chara Vavoura National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece
Ioannis Vavouras Panteion University of Social and Political Sciences, Greece
Dimitris Venieris University of the Peloponnese, Greece
Vasileios Vlachos International Hellenic University, Greece

Foreword

Apostolos Serletis

University of Calgary

As Alogoskoufis (2021) puts it in his Abstract, during the past two centuries (from the war for independence in 1821 to the present day), Greece and its economy “have been radically transformed. Compared to the first Greek state, Greece managed to almost triple its national territory, to increase its population by almost 15 times and to increase its real GDP per capita by another 15 times. From the margins of south-eastern Europe, it has moved to the core of today's European Union.” Today, Greece is the 16th largest economy in the European Union and the 51st largest economy in the world.

Alogoskoufis argues that the evolution of Greece and its economy during the past 200 years can be analyzed in the context of three major historical cycles. The first cycle is that of “state and nation building,” and covers the period from the declaration of the war of Greek independence in 1821 to the establishment of the International Financial Audit Commission in 1898. The second cycle covers the period from 1898 to the end of the civil war in 1949 and is characterized by “national expansion and consolidation.” This cycle is also characterized by persistent instability due to continuous wars and internal conflicts. The third cycle, from 1950 to the present, is the cycle of “economic and social development.”

The figure below shows the evolution of Greek GDP per capita (in constant 2010 US$) and its growth rate, from 1960 to 2019, using data from the World Bank (see https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD?locations=GR). As can be seen, per capita GDP increased (by more than a factor of five) from $6,259 in 1960 to $30,054 in the beginning of the global economic recession in 2007. However, per capita GDP increased unevenly during this period, with the average annual percentage growth rate being 9% from 1960 to 1973, 4% from 1994 to 2007, and –4% from 2008 to 2016. During this period, Greece experienced an economic growth miracle from the end of the civil war in 1950–1973, a long economic slowdown from 1979 to 1993, the restoration of democracy in 1974, full participation in the European Union in 1981, a major external debt crisis in 2010 and the “great depression” of 2008–2016, and the most recent COVID-19 crisis.

There is no need to go into more detail in this brief Foreword about the determinants of the economic and social transformations of modern Greece. In what follows, the editors, Vasileios Vlachos, Aristidis Bitzenis, and Bruno Sergi, present a collection of papers related to the forces that shaped the Greek state and its economy during the third historical cycle of economic and social development. Whether you are an academic economist or simply interested in understanding the forces shaping economic growth around the world, you will find Modeling Economic Growth in Contemporary Greece timely and relevant.

Reference

Alogoskoufis, 2021 Alogoskoufis, G. (2021). Historical cycles of the economy of modern Greece: From 1821 to the present. Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe, GreeSE Paper No. 158.

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