Index
Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation
ISBN: 978-1-78635-831-8, eISBN: 978-1-78635-830-1
Publication date: 26 April 2017
This content is currently only available as a PDF
Citation
Boateng, P., Chen, Z. and Ogunlana, S.O. (2017), "Index", Megaproject Risk Analysis and Simulation, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 327-334. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-78635-831-820171011
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2017 Emerald Publishing Limited
INDEX
Analytic network process (ANP)
, 1–2, 5–7, 9, 11–12, 47–52, 58, 77–78, 82, 85, 89–90, 92–93, 95, 110, 119, 128, 131, 184, 195, 198, 204, 207, 214, 219, 221, 224, 226–227, 229, 231–232, 255
consistency test
, 52–55
model structure development
, 50–51
pairwise comparison
, 52
Behaviour mode sensitivity analysis
, 260, 274–280
Big Dig project
, 2, 45
Bilfinger Berger and Siemens (BBS)
, 17, 26, 28
Bilfinger Berger Civil UK Ltd
, 16
Boundary adequacy
, 219, 255, 257, 280
Causality of technical uncertainties
, 133, 134
Causal loop diagram (CLD)
, 57–58, 131, 165, 284
economic risks system
, 151, 152
environmental risks system
, 155
political risks system
, 160
social risks system
, 141, 142
STEEP risks system
, 132
technical risks system
, 145, 147
Causal tree diagram
, 145
economic risks model
, 153
environmental risks model
, 158
political risks model
, 163
political risks system
, 160
social risks model
, 144
technical risks model
, 149
technical uncertainties
, 133, 134
Completion risks
, 67–68
Computerised model verification
, 252
Conceptual model validation
, 252
Consistency index (CI)
, 53
calculation
, 54
Consistency ratio (CR)
, 52–53, 119, 123–124
calculation
, 54
Consistency test
, 52, 54, 119–124, 184
Cost overrun
, 2, 35, 44–45, 145, 157, 168, 198
Criterion cluster
, 51
Danish Great Belt rail tunnel
, 45
Data validity
ETN project
, 220
Decision-making
megaproject management
, 1–2
Delays
, 43
mega construction projects
, 44
in SD models
, 57
in the tram works
, 29
Deriving priorities for risks ratings
, 120
Dimensional consistency
, 184, 219, 257
Disaggregation of dynamic simulation models
, 282, 283
Dynamic risks assessment in megaproject, framework for
, 225
Dynamic simulation models, validation of
, 216, 250
Dynamic simulations
, 184, 184–216, 250
economic risks system model
, 203, 206–207, 208–209
environmental risks system model
, 207, 209–210, 211–212
political risks system model
, 210, 212, 214–217
social risks system model
, 196, 197–199, 199, 202
technical risks system model
, 198, 201, 203, 205–206
Economic risks
, 64, 148, 152, 153, 168, 203
completion risks
, 67–68
market risk
, 68
in megaprojects
, 69
Economic risks system
, 148–154
ANP inputs
, 195
causalities, for stock variables
, 153–154
causal loop diagram for
, 151, 152
dynamic simulation results and discussion
, 203, 207, 208–209
evaluation tests for
, 185
integrated Stock and Flow Model (SFMs) for
, 168
mathematical equation, for system variables
, 176–178
one-way analysis of variance
, 217
system boundary for
, 138
Economic risk variables
pairwise comparison matrix for
, 103
verbal ratings for
, 122
Edinburgh Tram Network (ETN) project
, 1, 15, 16–17, 77, 84, 123, 157, 250
basic information of
, 18
bridges built to accommodate
, 27
construction and civil engineering works
, 17, 25–26, 28
contractual disputes
, 28, 30–31
1871–1956 era
, 15–16
environment of
, 24
external stakeholders of
, 21–22
impact of bad weather conditions
, 36–37
internal stakeholders of
, 19–20
organization of
, 23
organizations and groups consulted during the EIA for
, 34
rework and adverse environmental impacts
, 35
specific risks impacting on project environment
, 38–39
stakeholder relationship map for
, 25
stakeholder’s attitude and influence on
, 23
STEEP risks
, 28
economic issues
, 39
environmental issues
, 33–35, 39
political issues
, 35–40
social issues
, 28–29, 38
technical issues
, 29, 32–33, 38–39
technical risks impacting on social and natural environments
, 40
traffic diversions
, 32–33
utility diversions for
, 27
Engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract
, 67
Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
, 33
Environmental Impact Assessment (Scotland) Regulations
, 1999, 33
Environmental Resource Management (ERM)
, 33
Environmental risk cluster
, 68–70, 92
Environmental risks in megaprojects
, 71
Environmental risks system
, 154–157
ANP inputs
, 195
causalities, for stock variables
, 157, 162
causal loop diagram for
, 155
dynamic simulation results and discussion
, 207, 209–210, 211–212
evaluation tests for
, 184
integrated SFMs for
, 169
mathematical equation, for system variables
, 179–180
one-way analysis of variance
, 217
system boundary for
, 139
Environmental risk variables
pairwise comparison matrix for
, 106
verbal ratings for
, 123
‘Everything Goes According to Plan’ (EGAP) principle
, 3
Feedback loop approach
, 281–282
Final mode ANP decision-making priorities
economic risks sub-cluster
, 116
Environmental risk sub-cluster
, 117
political risk variables
, 118
potential risks cluster
, 113
social risk sub-cluster
, 114
technical risk sub-cluster
, 115
Financial closure
, 68
Ideal priority value (IPV)
, 93, 95
Ideal risk priority indexes (IRPIs)
, 110
InterCity Express (ICE) project, in Germany
, 156
Likert scale
, 119
Liquidated damages (LDs)
, 67
Market risk
, 68
Maximum eigenvalue, calculating
, 53
MegaDS model
, 260, 282, 287
Megaproject
Big Dig project
, 2, 45
Danish Great Belt rail tunnel project
, 45
economic risks
, 64–68, 148–154
environmental risks
, 68–70, 154–157
InterCity Express (ICE) project
, 156
political risks
, 70–74, 157–162
problem with megaprojects
, 2–6
risks
, 2–5
social risks
, 59–61, 141–145
technical risks
, 61–64, 145–148
Train à Grande Vitesse (TGV) project
, 156
Model validation
, 250
integrated system model objective, importance of
, 254
integrated system models, methods for testing and validating
, 252–254
model behaviour, validating
, 258
behaviour mode sensitivity analysis
, 260, 274–280
behaviour reproduction test
, 258–259
disaggregation approach
, 282
feedback approach
, 281–282
manageable model size
, 284–287
numerical sensitivity analysis
, 259–260, 263–273
policy analysis, design and improvement
, 280–281
policy implementation
, 287
sensitivity analysis
, 259
simulation approach
, 282–284
stock and exogenous system entities for STEEP risks models
, 261–262
philosophical aspects of model validity
, 250–251
process
, 251–252
tests of suitability
, 255
boundary adequacy
, 255–257
dimensional consistency
, 257
extreme conditions
, 258
parameter verification
, 255
structure verification
, 255
validating the model structure
, 254
Multi-criterion decision-making (MCDM) methodology
, 48, 227
analytic hierarchical process (AHP)
, 48
analytic network process (ANP)
, 48, 227
criteria
, 48, 227
Multi-Utilities Framework Agreement (MUDFA)
, 17, 37
Normalized priority value (NPV)
, 93, 95
Numerical sensitivity analysis
, 259–260, 263–273
Operational validation
, 252
Operations and maintenance (O&M) agreement
, 68
Pairwise comparison matrix
, 119, 124
economic risk variables
, 103
environmental risk variables
, 106
political risk variables
, 107
social risk variables
, 98
technical risk variables
, 100
Parameter verification, of STEEP models
, 219, 255
Pattern-oriented policy analysis
, 281
Policy analysis, design and improvement
, 280–281
Political risk cluster
, 70–74
Political risks in megaprojects
, 75
Political risks system
, 157–162
ANP inputs
, 195
causalities, for stock variables
, 162, 163, 164
causal loop diagram for
, 160
dynamic simulation results and discussion
, 210, 212–216
evaluation tests for
, 185–186
integrated SFMs for
, 170
mathematical equation, for system variables
, 181–183
one-way analysis of variance
, 217
system boundary for
, 140
Political risk variables
final mode ANP decision-making priorities for
, 118
pairwise comparison matrix for
, 107
verbal ratings for
, 123
Potential risks
, 4–5, 43, 49, 51
political risk cluster
, 70–74
political risk variables
, 107, 118, 123, 214
political risks in megaprojects
, 75
political risks system
, 140, 157–162, 181, 210
unweighted super matrix for
, 111
verbal ratings for
, 120
weighted supermatrix for
, 112
Potential risks cluster
, 95
final mode ANP decision-making priorities for
, 113
potential risks sub-clusters
, 95–109
Problem with megaprojects
, 2
megaproject risk assessment
, 4–5
megaproject risks
, 2–3
new risk assessment framework
, 5–6
Project financing
, 64
Project manager
, 4–5, 56, 61, 63–64, 67, 80, 147, 201, 214, 221, 287
Project objectives cluster
, 93
Project risk management (PRM) facilities
, 5, 8, 231
Project risks
, 5, 68, 74, 80–81
Project risk systems model
, 131–140
initial model development
, 135–136
model causality
, 133–135
system boundaries
, 136–140
Realistic ‘construction time’
, 44
Respondent’s mean scores of importance (RMSI)
, 85, 86
potential risks
, 321–326
economic risks
, 309–314
environmental risks
, 315–320
social risks
, 297–302
technical risks
, 303–308
project objectives
, 291–296
Risk analysis framework
, 46
analytic network process (ANP) modelling route
, 48
ANP model structure development
, 50–51
consistency test
, 52–55
pairwise comparison
, 52
system dynamics (SD) modelling route
, 55–58
Risk assessment, megaproject
, 4–5
Risk assessment framework
, 5–6, 11, 223
Risk assessment matrix (RAM)
, 224
Risk clusters
, 58
economic risks
, 64
completion risks
, 67–68
market risk
, 68
environmental risks
, 68–70
political risks
, 70–74
social risks
, 59–61
technical risks
, 61–64
Risk interdependency matrix
, 93
potential risks cluster
, 95
potential risks sub-clusters
, 95–109
project objectives cluster
, 93
Risk management
, 4, 5, 12, 43, 67
Risk Priority Index (RPI)
, 55, 124–128, 255, 259, 260
Risk quantification
, 77
analysis of risk interdependency
, 77
adjustments of participants’ opinions
, 85
descriptive quantitative results and analysis
, 82–84
qualitative approaches
, 78–81
quantitative approach
, 81–82
standardized quantitative results and analysis
, 84–85
analytic network process (ANP) model
, 85–92
consistency test
, 119–124
pairwise comparison
, 92–93
risk interdependency matrix
, 93
potential risks cluster
, 95
potential risks sub-clusters
, 95–109
project objectives cluster
, 93
Risk Priority Index (RPI)
, 124–128
risk rating
, 119
supermatrix calculation
, 110–119
Risk rating
, 119
Risk simulation
project risk systems model
, 131–140
STEEP risks system
, 141–162
system validation
, 216, 218–219
system verification
, 162–163, 165
Risks ratings, deriving priorities for
, 120
Royal Assent
, 16
SDANP
framework
, 46, 47
methodology
, 1, 7, 11–12
practical guide for using
, 230
procedure, for risks reduction in megaprojects
, 228–229
risk assessment approach
, 225–226
tests for building confidence in integrated models
, 253–254
Sensitivity analysis
, 259
behaviour mode
, 260–280
numerical
, 259–260
Shandwick Place and Haymarket, disruption of
, 26
Social, technical, economic, environmental and political (STEEP) risks
, 1, 4–8, 10–12, 46, 50, 84, 85, 89–90, 123, 128–129, 250, 251, 252, 254, 255, 256, 258, 259
ANP inputs to
, 184, 195
boundary adequacy
, 219
causal loop diagram (CLD), on ETN project
, 132
dimensional consistency requirements
, 219
dynamic hypothesis of
, 135
dynamic simulations
, 184, 196–216
economic risks system
, 148–154
environmental risks system
, 154–157
evaluation tests for
, 170, 185–194
integrated SFMs for
, 165–169
model equation formulation
, 169–170, 184
one-way analysis of variance
, 217
parameter verification of
, 219
political risks system
, 157–162
risk types
, 139
SD equation representation
, 184
social risks system
, 141–145
STEEP factors
, 44, 46, 52, 58
STEEP models
, 254, 276
structural verification of
, 218
technical risks system
, 145–148
Social risk entry points
, 61
Social risks cluster
, 59–62
Social risks model
, 141, 144, 146, 255, 260
Social risks system
, 141
ANP inputs
, 195
causalities, for stock variables
, 144–145, 146
causal loop diagram for
, 141, 142
dynamic simulation results and discussion
, 196–198, 199, 202
evaluation tests for
, 185
integrated SFMs for
, 167
mathematical equation, for system variables
, 171–172
one-way analysis of variance
, 217
system boundary for
, 136
vicious cycle
of grievance prevention
, 143–144
of social risks generation
, 141–143
Social risk sub-cluster
final mode ANP decision-making priorities for
, 114
Social risk variables
pairwise comparison matrix for
, 98
verbal ratings for
, 121
Special purpose vehicle (SPV)
, 66, 67, 68
Stock and flow STEEP models
, 165–169
economic risk system
, 168
environmental risks system
, 169
political risks system
, 170
social risks system
, 167
technical risks system
, 167
Structural verification, of STEEP models
, 170, 218, 255
Structured interview questionnaire and participants
, 289–290
Suitability, tests of
, 255
boundary adequacy
, 255–257
dimensional consistency
, 257
extreme conditions
, 258
parameter verification
, 255
structure verification
, 255
Super Decisions Software
, 55, 95
Supermatrix calculation
, 110–119
System Design Services (SDS)
, 17
System dynamics (SD) approach
, 224, 227
System dynamics (SD) method
, 1–2, 5, 47, 55–58, 259
Technical risk cluster
, 61–64
Technical risks in megaprojects
, 65–66
Technical risks system
, 145–148
ANP inputs
, 195
causalities, for stock variables
, 148, 149, 150
causal loop diagram for
, 145, 147
dynamic simulation results and discussion
, 198, 201, 203, 205
evaluation tests for
, 185
integrated SFMs for
, 167
mathematical equation, for system variables
, 173–175
one-way analysis of variance
, 217
system boundary for
, 137
Technical risk sub-cluster
final mode ANP decision-making priorities for
, 115
Technical risk variables
pairwise comparison matrix for
, 100
verbal ratings for
, 121
Technical uncertainties
, 133–135
Total priority value (TPV)
, 93, 95
Total risk priority index (TRPI)
, 110
Traffic Regulation Orders (TROs)
, 257
Train a Grande Vitesse (TGV) project, in France
, 156–157
Transportation megaprojects
, 3, 5, 67, 77–78, 128, 145, 148, 152, 156, 161, 162, 201, 218, 231, 234, 254–255, 282
dynamics simulation models for
, 285–286
disaggregation of
, 283
Transport initiatives Edinburgh (tie)
, 16–17, 25, 28, 32, 33
Unweighted super matrix for potential risks
, 111
Uses tree diagrams
economic risks model
, 154
environmental risks model
, 159
political risks model
, 163
social risks model
, 146
technical risks model
, 150
technical uncertainties
, 133, 134
Validation
defined
, 216, 218
model. See Model validation
system
, 216, 218–219
Variation orders (VOs)
, 151
Vensim software
, 219, 257, 280, 288
Verbal ratings
economic risk variables
, 122
environmental risk variables
, 123
political risk variables
, 123
potential risks
, 120
social risk variables
, 121
technical risk variables
, 121
Verification
defined
, 218
parameter
, 219, 255
structure
, 218, 255
system
, 162–163, 165
Weighted quantitative score (WQS) method
, 49, 77–78, 85, 219, 255
Weighted supermatrix
, 110
potential risks
, 112