Case studies

The organizers of a music festival may use video from the Friday concert to create a DVD to sell to those who come to the Saturday concert. Attendance on Saturday is uncertain, as is the percentage of those who attend on Saturday who will buy the DVD. Is this a good project? If so, what number of DVDs should be burned early Saturday morning and offered for sale at that evening’s performance? By that time, Friday attendance is known, as well as whether it rained on Friday, and there is a forecast for whether it will rain on Saturday. Historical information on these variables may help us predict Saturday attendance using multiple regression; together with the results of a marketing survey, such analysis will help us make better purchasing decisions. This case series (see also the B case, UVA-QA-0708) can be used to illuminate a multitude of concepts that are covered in basic decision-analysis courses. The series starts by examining the role of uncertainty in decision-making, proceeds through the estimation of probability distributions from sample data with multiple regression, culminates in the development of a full decision model, and ends with a qualitative and quantitative analysis (with a tornado diagram) of how to add value and reduce risk. Key pitfalls for students are failing to recognize both limits on sales (supply and demand), incomplete reasoning in the determination of the attendance probability distribution, and oversimplifying the full forecast model.

This case presents the challenges facing a new pastor at Whitney Avenue Congregational church. For many years the church has seen declining membership. Karl, the new pastor, is expected to help foster growth, but as he has learned, some organization members fear that he may want to change more than they would like to see changed. Karl must decide how to conduct himself at the next church council meeting. He also must decide on an approach to effect positive change in the organization.

David Walker, a senior attorney in a busy white-shoe law practice is involved in an in-office dispute between his administrative assistant and a respected colleague. He had spent numerous hours listening to both sides tell their stories and has no answers. How was he ever going to help two people he valued greatly work out a compromise between their extremely polar positions? The case provides opportunities to explore the sources of interpersonal conflict, causes of escalation, and ways of diffusing and resolving it.