Case studies

The financial success of dairy farms depends critically on the price of their main output, milk. Large volatility in the price of milk poses a considerable business risk to dairy farms. This is particularly true for family-run dairy farms. The question then arises: how can a farm owner hedge the milk price risk? The standard approach to establish a price floor for a commodity such as milk is to purchase put options on commodity futures. At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, farmers can buy put options on the price of a variety of milk products. However, the price a farm receives for its milk depends on many factors and is unique to the farm. Thus, a farmer cannot directly buy put options on the price he receives for the milk his farm produces. Instead the farmer needs to determine which of the options available for trade at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange offer the best hedge for his own milk price. The assignment in this case is to examine historical data on several prices of milk products and the milk price received by a family-run dairy farm in California. Students need to find the price that is most closely correlated to the farm's milk price and to then choose options with the appropriate strike price that serve as the best hedge for the farm's price risk.

The objective is to expose students to an interesting but simple finance application of linear regression analysis. To solve the case, students must run several simple linear regressions, then use the best regression model they find to make a prediction for the dependent price variable and analyze the prediction interval in order to achieve the desired objective outlined in the case. By completing the case, students will acquire a good understanding of their regression model and its usefulness.

An asset management company must replace the manager of its two signature mutual funds, who is about to retire. Two candidates have been short-listed. The management team is divided and cannot decide which of the two candidates would make the better mutual fund manager. The retiring manager presents a linear regression model to examine success factors of mutual fund managers. This linear regression is the starting point for the subsequent analysis.

Application of linear regression analysis to analyze the performance of mutual fund managers.

The years 2011, 2012, and 2013 witnessed both significant developments and setbacks in global polio eradication efforts. On the positive side, January 13, 2012, marked a full year since India had detected a case of wild poliovirus. On the negative side, polio continued to be endemic in three countries-Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Nigeria-and in those countries the goal of eliminating polio seemed more challenging than ever. Between December 2012 and January 2013, sixteen polio workers were killed in Pakistan, and in February 2013, nine women vaccinating children against polio in Kano, Nigeria, were shot dead by gunmen suspected of belonging to a radical Islamist sect. In addition, after a 95 percent decline in polio cases in 2010, the number of cases in Nigeria rebounded in 2011. Recognizing that polio was unlikely to be eliminated in these countries in the near term, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative moved its target date for eradication from 2013 to 2018.

These setbacks sparked a debate about the appropriate strategy for global eradication of polio. Indeed, some experts believed that recent setbacks were not caused by poor management but were instead the result of epidemiological characteristics and preconditions that might render polio eradication unachievable. These experts argued that global health efforts should focus on the control or elimination of polio rather than on the eradication of the disease.

This case presents an overview of polio and the Global Polio Eradication Initiative and recounts the successful effort to eradicate smallpox. The case enables a rich discussion of the current global strategy to eradicate polio, as well as the issue of whether eradication is the appropriate global public health objective. More generally, the case provides a concrete example of a particular type of global public good, namely infectious disease eradication.

After analyzing and discussing the case, students will be able to:

• Understand the nature of a global public good

• Perform a back-of-the-envelope benefit-cost analysis of polio eradication

• Discuss the appropriate strategy for eradicating an infectious disease

• Apply game theory to analyzing which countries would be likely to contribute funds toward global polio eradication

• Discuss the role of private organizations in the provision of global public goods

Understand the nature of a global public good

Perform a back-of-the-envelope benefit-cost analysis of polio eradication

Discuss the appropriate strategy for eradicating an infectious disease

Apply game theory to analyzing which countries would be likely to contribute funds toward global polio eradication

Discuss the role of private organizations in the provision of global public goods

Family members knew something was very wrong when Adolf Merckle, who had guided the family holding company, VEM Vermogensverwaltung GmbH, through dozens of successful investments, left the house one afternoon in January 2009 and failed to return. That night their fears were confirmed when a German railway worker located Merckle's body near a commuter train line near his hometown of Blaubeuren, about a hundred miles west of Munich. It was no secret that the recent financial crisis had taken a toll on Merckle's investments. He was known in Germany as a savvy investor, but had lost hundreds of millions of Euros after being caught on the wrong side of a short squeeze of epic proportions involving Volkswagen stock. This was not the only large bet against that company's stock. A number of hedge funds, including Greenlight Capital, SAC Capital, Glenview Capital, Tiger Asia, and Perry Capital, lost billions of Euros in a few hours based on their large short positions in Volkswagen's stock following the news on October 26, 2008, that Porsche AG had obtained a large long synthetic position in Volkswagen stock through cash-settled options. In the next two days, this short squeeze produced a fivefold increase in Volkswagen's share price, as demand for shares from hedge funds exceeded the supply of borrowable shares.

This case focuses on the massive equity derivative positions entered into by Porsche in relation to Volkswagen stock and by TCI and 3G in relation to CSX stock. Students will learn how equity exposure can be created without buying stock and without prior disclosure. The role of regulators, courts, and investment banks that facilitate these transactions is also explored.

This case presents financial and macroeconomic data for the United States between 2007 and 2013, a period covering the financial crisis and Great Recession of 2007–2009 and the slow economic recovery from 2009 onward. During this period, the Federal Reserve had set the federal funds rate, its primary monetary policy instrument, near zero and was using additional monetary policy tools to stimulate the economy. One of these additional tools was quantitative easing (QE).

Students will use the data provided in the case to examine how financial markets reacted to QE actions by the Federal Reserve and to analyze the potential impact of QE on the macroeconomy.

After reading and analyzing the case, students will be able to:

• Apply the event study methodology to analyze economic effects

• Recognize how macroeconomic news affects the prices of financial securities

• Describe the connections between the prices of financial securities and the macroeconomy

• • Debate the relative costs and benefits of quantitative easing and the optimality of Federal Reserve policy

Apply the event study methodology to analyze economic effects

Recognize how macroeconomic news affects the prices of financial securities

Describe the connections between the prices of financial securities and the macroeconomy

• Debate the relative costs and benefits of quantitative easing and the optimality of Federal Reserve policy

Quintiles Transnational Holdings Inc., the largest global provider of biopharmaceutical development and commercial outsourcing services, grew its revenue at a CAGR of 7.3% and EBITDA at 13.9% between 2008 and 2012.

The case is set in December 2012–April 2013, when the majority of the firm was owned by founder Dennis Gillings and four private equity firms (Bain Capital, TPG Capital, 3i Capital and Temasek Life Sciences) after it was taken private in a management-led buyout in 2003 and a subsequent buyout in 2008. Five years after the second buyout, the private equity firm owners were looking to monetize their positions and considered different strategic alternatives: M&A sale to strategic or financial buyers, IPO, or capital restructuring through special dividends.

Students will step into the role of an associate at the lead investment bank working with Quintiles. They must consider the case information and determine an IPO strategy, process, potential conflicts, and valuation.

After reading and analyzing the case, students will be able to:

• Apply valuation techniques (discounted cash flow (DCF) and publicly traded comparables) in pricing an IPO

• Analyze the roles of different parties involved in the transaction

• Discuss the process of a company filing for an IPO

• Evaluate different strategic alternatives available to a private equity—backed company

• Address conflict of interest in management—led buyouts

Apply valuation techniques (discounted cash flow (DCF) and publicly traded comparables) in pricing an IPO

Analyze the roles of different parties involved in the transaction

Discuss the process of a company filing for an IPO

Evaluate different strategic alternatives available to a private equity—backed company

Address conflict of interest in management—led buyouts

In May 2009 the Office of the Chief Actuary for the U.S. Social Security Administration projected that by 2016 the Social Security Trust Fund would begin to spend more money than it took in through tax revenue. Further, by 2037 the balance in the Trust Fund would be down to zero, necessitating cuts in benefits to retirees. The U.S. Social Security system thus faced a long-term financial problem that needed to be addressed sooner rather than later. The experience of other countries in reforming their own systems of old-age insurance might provide some guidance for U.S. policymakers as they attempt to deal with the long-run fiscal challenges facing the U.S. Social Security system. This case focuses on reforms of old-age insurance systems in three countries: Australia, Mexico, and Sweden.

This case gives students the opportunity to debate the variety of approaches that could be used to reform the U.S. Social Security system. It also gives insight into how countries around the world have structured their old-age insurance systems.

The case discusses the operational, strategic, and financial turnaround at Solo Cup, a manufacturer of disposable dining wares. Solo Cup’s troubles were compounded by the acquisition of a larger rival, Sweetheart Company, which had its own problems and presented issues of merger integration that management could not solve. David Garfield, a managing director at turnaround consulting firm Alix Partners, must first recognize Solo Cup’s core competencies in order to determine the appropriate change in strategic course, strip out the assets that no longer support the operations necessary for that strategy, and monetize them in order to rationalize its balance sheet. This case teaches that a three-pronged approach will invariably produce greater results than any one-dimensional turnaround.

Students will learn turnaround techniques necessary to restructure a company operationally, strategically, and financially, and will learn how Alix Partners' relentless focus on “letting data rule” allowed the firm to revive a faltering company.

The case focuses on two major challenges in deal making in emerging market economies---deal sourcing and negotiation---by focusing on a real (but disguised) Indian private equity deal. In 2010 Surya Tutoring was a fast-growing tutoring academy for high school students aspiring to gain admission to the prestigious Indian Institute of Technology (IIT). Surya’s CEO, R. K. Sharma, wanted to expand its reach beyond Kota (a city of 1 million people in the northern state of Rajasthan), which had become the center of the IIT prep school industry and home to tens of thousands of students studying for the rigorous IIT entrance exam. Sharma knew there was vast untapped potential in the teeming Indian metropolises of Mumbai, Chennai, Delhi, and Bangalore, as well as in foreign markets such as Dubai and Australia. Sharma had received term sheets from two private equity firms willing to finance Surya’s expansion. By the end of the month he needed to decide which to accept: the offer from big bulge bracket fund Blackgem, or the one from ZenCap, a small Indian firm based in Mumbai with which he had become intimately familiar during the past year.

After analyzing and discussing the case, students should be able to:

• Identify the differences between the United States and an emerging market such as India when it comes to deal sourcing, negotiation, and financial contracting

• Value a growth equity transaction in an emerging economy, including financial, contractual, and qualitative (social networks, local knowledge, trust) aspects of the deal

Identify the differences between the United States and an emerging market such as India when it comes to deal sourcing, negotiation, and financial contracting

Value a growth equity transaction in an emerging economy, including financial, contractual, and qualitative (social networks, local knowledge, trust) aspects of the deal

Teuer Furniture is a privately owned, moderately sized chain of upscale home furnishing showrooms in the United States. The firm survived the economic recession and by the end of 2012, it has regained its financial footing. Now that the firm is more secure financially, some of its long-term investors have asked to cash out their investments. This will be the first time that Teuer has repurchased its equity; the company has paid dividends since 2009. Chief financial officer Jennifer Jerabek and her team have been given the task of valuing Teuer using a discounted cash flow approach. The discount rate is given in the case, and the students need to build a pro forma income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement and then calculate a per-share value for Teuer.

• Estimate firm value using a discounted cash flow approach

• Construct firm-level estimates of the pro forma income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow from assets based on store-level estimates

• Recognize how forecasts of revenues, costs, and capital investment are constructed, how the individual estimates relate to each other, and how the forecasts depend upon the underlying economics of the business

• Evaluate and defend the validity of the firm’s forecasts and the valuation model

Estimate firm value using a discounted cash flow approach

Construct firm-level estimates of the pro forma income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow from assets based on store-level estimates

Recognize how forecasts of revenues, costs, and capital investment are constructed, how the individual estimates relate to each other, and how the forecasts depend upon the underlying economics of the business

Evaluate and defend the validity of the firm’s forecasts and the valuation model