Case studies

This case exposes students to predictive analytics as applied to discrete events with logistic regression. The VP of customer services for a successful start-up wants to proactively identify customers most likely to cancel services or “churn.” He assigns the task to one of his associates and provides him with data on customer behavior and his intuition about what drives churn. The associate must generate a list of the customers most likely to churn and the top three reasons for that likelihood.

This case builds on the case "Merck & Company: Product KL-798" (UVA-QA-0582) by providing market uncertainties for the drug (drug quality, the presence of a competitor, market growth, and the time to the drug's release). Student and faculty spreadsheets are provided for the calculation of net present values for the scenarios. There is an additional challenge of how to treat the several downstream decisions (using OptQuest, for example) and how to value the license opportunity. A teaching note is also available to registered faculty members.

Greg Mills describes his search for the perfect engagement ring which includes an analysis of the prices of 6,000 diamonds. An engineer, Greg hopes to impress Sarah Staggers by using regression to find an underpriced diamond. Students are asked to either select one of the 6,000 diamonds or provide point forecasts for prices of 3,142 diamonds in a hold-out sample. The instructor can use the actual prices of the held-out diamonds to evaluate student pricing models.

An angel/venture capitalist could invest in an Internet sheet-music publishing start-up. The chance of success multiplied by the value, if successful, suggests that this isn't a good investment. Nevertheless, several friends suggest the optionality present in the venture: abort an unsuccessful website and sell the technology; switch the technology if the website is good, expand, buyout. Decision trees and Monte Carlo simulations are used to value these options, which make the opportunity look very attractive.

Filtroil had opened a new factory that was a merger between Shenzhen Filtroil and its supplier, Liu Li—whose own factory was on the verge of bankruptcy. But the supplier had begun making excessive demands and threatening to delay product shipment to the United States if his conditions were left unmet. The case reveals the options that could be taken to manage the situation. The case is suitable for use in organizational behavior, human resource management, and strategy classes at the MBA and executive education levels.

The president of a well-established manufacturer of mattresses has asked his assistant to recommend whether to consolidate plants of three different locations. He must decide not only which criteria are most useful in making such a decision, but also how to weigh the different criteria in coming up with a single decision.

Sparta Glass Products has been losing significant market share over the last several quarters in the non-glare-glass market, with a price 10% above the competition. Lowering the price is under consideration. Unfortunately, fully allocated costs are such that the lower price results in a loss. Issues to be discussed and analyses to be conducted include the relevant costs for the decision and the reactions from competitors.

“Suitable for MBA, Executive MBA, GEMBA, and executive education programs, this case uses CEMEX, a global cement producer based in Mexico, to set the stage for unfolding an analysis of a growth through acquisition strategy. It offers a discussion about the firm's overall strategy to acquire on a global scale instead of growing organically and provides an opportunity to introduce basic financial, marketing, and operational terms that can be explored in subsequent classes. The material includes a PMI process that further allows discussion on that technique.

The case opens with a conference call and another barrage of questions for CEO Lorenzo Zambrano about his bid to buy the Australia-based Rinker Group in October 2006. Until this point, CEMEX has had a long-standing habit of buying businesses in emerging markets; this acquisition would be a departure from that strategy. If the deal goes through, it would be the single largest acquisition in CEMEX's history, and it would be among its few forays into a developed market other than the neighboring United States. The company has grown exponentially and successfully. Why would this effort be any different? Was the acquisition a good idea or not? And if it was, how would Zambrano and his leadership team convince Wall Street and others of that?”

John Hume, a veteran game farmer and founder of the Mauricedale Game Ranch in South Africa, was deeply troubled by the record upsurge in black rhino poaching incidents and black-market horn thefts in 2010 and 2011. While the endangered black rhino represented only one segment of Mauricedale's hunting and farming businesses in 2011, the animal's survival was an important component of the ranch's and industry's growth potential in the future. As both a businessman and a rhino advocate, John Hume was contemplating an innovative idea that might help stop the decline of the black rhino: the creation of a market for legalized black rhino hunting. As he pondered the possibilities and alternatives to determine what his next move should be, Hume had several questions on his mind: Was the legalization of the international sale and trade of rhino horns a viable solution? Was it Hume's responsibility to save the black rhino, and was the animal a good investment?

In the spring of 2004, Google was one of the most-talked-about IPO ideas since Netscape had gone public in 1995. Bullish investors believed Google could set off a string of successful IPOs following a lull in tech-offering activity since 2000. Executives at Google faced several questions in the following months: Should Google go public? What options did Google have for taking its shares to market? Was the traditional form of book-building necessarily the best course of action? Could a sealed-bid auction (e.g., W.R. Hambrecht's OpenIPO) yield superior results?