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This paper aims to empirically examine how shocks to monetary policy measures (the short-term nominal interest rate and broad money supply) affect macroeconomic aggregates, namely, output growth of the economy, national price levels and the nominal exchange rate.

Johansen’s (1995) cointegration technique and error correction models are used to explore the long-run relationship among variables. To investigate how macroeconomic aggregates respond to a one-standard deviation shock to the underlying monetary measures, the authors estimate impulse response functions based on error correction models. The study uses quarterly data covering the period 1980-2009.

The results provide evidence that there is a long-run stable relationship between the authors' monetary measures and the underlying macroeconomic aggregates. They also find that the industrial production adjusts at a faster speed relative to commodity prices and the exchange rate over the examined period. Further, they show that the short-term interest rate has relatively stronger effects on output as compared to broad money supply, whereas prices and exchange rates adjust more quickly to their long-run equilibrium when money supply is used as a measure of monetary policy. Finally, the authors find significant evidence of a price puzzle regardless of whether they consider a closed or an open economy case. However, an initial appreciation of exchange rate is observed in response to a one-standard deviation shock to money supply, indicating the overshooting hypothesis phenomenon.

The findings of the analysis suggest that the interest rate-oriented monetary policy is more effective when the monetary authorities’ objective is to enhance the output growth of the economy. However, in case of inflation targeting, the broad money supply seems a more appropriate instrument. Our findings also suggest that the monetary policy has a significant role in stabilizing both real and nominal sectors of the economy.

The main value of this paper is to examine the significance of monetary policy for a developing and relatively small open economy, namely, Pakistan. The authors use the error correction model, which improves the estimation by accounting for the long-run association. They also take into account the world oil prices by including the world commodity price index as a control variable in their empirical investigation. Finally, they utilize quarterly data rather than annual, and they cover a relatively recent sample period.

This paper aims to investigate whether negative and positive monetary policy (MP) shocks have asymmetric impacts on corporate firms’ investment decisions in Pakistan using firm-level panel data set. Moreover, the authors emphasized on symmetric effects of MP; the authors examine whether high-leverage and low-leverage firms respond differently to negative and positive unanticipated shocks in MP instruments.

In contrast to the conventional framework of VAR, it uses an alternative methodology of Taylor rule to estimate unanticipated MP shocks. The two-step system-generalized method of movement (GMM) estimation method is applied to examine the effect of MP shocks on firm investment through leverage-based asymmetry.

The two-step system-GMM estimation results indicate that unanticipated negative changes (unfavorable shocks) in MP instruments have negative, significant effects on investment. In contrast, unanticipated positive changes (favorable shocks) have statistically insignificant impacts on firm investment. The results also reveal that firm leverage has a significant role in establishing the effect of unanticipated negative changes in MP instruments on investments. Finally, the results indicate that high-leverage firms respond more to negative changes than low-leverage firms. Yet, the results show that only low-leverage firms positively respond to unanticipated positive shocks in MP.

The findings of the paper suggest that MP authorities should pay due attention to the asymmetric effects of MP shocks on firm investment while designing MP. Because firm leverage has a significant influence on the effects of MP shocks, firm managers should take into account such role of leverage while deciding capital structure of their firms.

First, unlike “Keynesian asymmetry” and most of published empirical research work, the authors use both unanticipated negative and positive MP shocks simultaneously. Departing from the conventional empirical literature, the authors differentiate between unanticipated positive and negative shocks in MP using the backward-looking Taylor rule. Second, the authors contribute to the existing literature by investigating the differential effects of positive and negative unanticipated MP shocks on firms’ investment decisions. Unlike the published studies that have emphasized on the symmetric effects of MP, the authors examine whether high-leverage and low-leverage firms respond differently to negative and positive unanticipated shocks in MP instruments.

The paper examines the differential effect of liquidity constraints on corporate growth using unbalanced panel data for 457 Pakistani firms over the period 2010–2017.

The study uses the probability of a financial unconstrained index constructed by estimating the endogenous regression model. This approach provides a time-varying measure of financial position for all firm-year observations and takes into account the different degrees of liquidity constraints that a company faces in attaining funds from external markets. It is derived from a multivariate selection equation that simultaneously accounts for all-important features of the underlying company identified in the literature. The cash flow variable has then interacted with various groups of dummy variables for financial constraint, which allows the coefficient of cash flow to vary across firm-year observations in the different liquidity constraint categories. The two-step system-GMM estimator is applied to estimate the main empirical model.

The results of the study provide evidence of the heterogeneity in firms' growth sensitivity to internal funds, depending on the degree of liquidity constraints. Financing growth through internal funds is found to be essential for both liquidity unconstrained and constrained corporates. However, it is observed that the coefficient of cash flow is greater for firms that do not have access to external financing and it eventually decreases with reductions in the magnitude of liquidity constraints, making the least constrained corporates' growth less responsive to internal funds. The results further indicate that smaller and younger firms show higher responsiveness of growth to internal funds. This finding is mainly attributed to financial market imperfections that make external funding difficult for them.

The results suggest that financially constrained firms should expand their corporate size more than the magnitude of positive income shocks they encounter. The study also suggests important policy implications for liquidity-constrained firms to carefully concentrate on their financing strategies to enhance their growth. By improving the corporate's capacity for production, corporates can achieve a faster effect of a potential positive income shock on their growth.

This paper contributes to the literature by constructing a financial constraint index by running the endogenous regression model. It also contributes by investigating the differential impact of credit constraints on firms' growth in Pakistan and how corporate size and age affect firm growth when financial constraints and investment opportunities are controlled.