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1 – 7 of 7Doddy Ariefianto, Citra Amanda and Zaafri Ananto Husodo
To examine the relationship between the term structure of interest rates of sovereign bonds in emerging nations and their macroeconomic indicators, specifically emphasizing its…
Abstract
Purpose
To examine the relationship between the term structure of interest rates of sovereign bonds in emerging nations and their macroeconomic indicators, specifically emphasizing its persistence and interaction with inflation, foreign exchange and fiscal conditions.
Design/methodology/approach
Adopting the Mean Group Instrumental Variables (MGIV) technique, as proposed by Cui et al. (2020) and Norkute et al. (2021), this study analyzes a monthly panel dataset from nine emerging economies spanning January 2010 to October 2021, totaling 1,278 observations.
Findings
The findings reveal significant persistence in both slope and curvature, with a rising yield level linked to the term structure's flattening, while shifts in inflation and exchange rates correlate with its steepening.
Originality/value
Our study is among the few which used an empirically constructed measure of the term structure of interest instead of a theoretical construct. To best our knowledge, we are the first to employ MGIV.
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Usman Arief and Zaäfri Ananto Husodo
This research studies private information from extreme price movements or jumps. The authors calculate the private information using a reduced form model from the stochastic…
Abstract
This research studies private information from extreme price movements or jumps. The authors calculate the private information using a reduced form model from the stochastic volatility jump process and use several statistical robustness tests as well as several frequencies to improve our consistency. This study reveals that private information is significant in explain the existence of jumps in capital markets in Southeast Asia, whereas macroeconomic events cannot explain them. The authors determine empirically that private information in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia are not persistent and its value gradually decreases when we use the lower frequency. Based on the Fama–Macbeth regression, this study shows that private information in the capital market has a strong positive relationship with individual returns in Indonesia’s capital market and Thailand’s capital market for all frequencies.
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Ezra Valentino Purba and Zaäfri Ananto Husodo
This study aimed to know the effect of cross-sectional risk, which comprises business-specific risk and stock market volatility, as a variable for estimating macroeconomic risk in…
Abstract
This study aimed to know the effect of cross-sectional risk, which comprises business-specific risk and stock market volatility, as a variable for estimating macroeconomic risk in Indonesia. This study observes public companies in Indonesia and Indonesian macroeconomic data from 2004 to 2020. In this study, the author uses term spread as the dependent variable that reflects macroeconomic risk. The cross-sectional risk comprises financial friction (FF), cash flow (CF), debt–service ratio, and stock market volatility as independent variables. By using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model method, this study shows that business-specific and stock market risk can estimate macroeconomic risk, so that it becomes an early signal of economic shock, such as recession or high inflation, in the future. The model in this study also examines the cross-sectional risk relationship with other macroeconomic indicators, such as the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), money supply (M0), and Indonesia’s trade balance (TB).
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Wendy Kesuma, Irwan Adi Ekaputra and Dony Abdul Chalid
This paper investigates whether individual investors are attentive to stock splits and whether higher split ratios (stronger private information signals) reduce the disposition…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper investigates whether individual investors are attentive to stock splits and whether higher split ratios (stronger private information signals) reduce the disposition effect.
Design/methodology/approach
This study employs stock split events and transaction data in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from January 2004 to December 2017. The authors measure individual investors' attention using buy-initiated trades. To test the effect of split signal on disposition effect, the authors regress individual investors' sell-initiated trades on past stock returns.
Findings
Unlike Birru (2015), the authors find that individual investors are attentive to stock splits, especially when stock split ratios are high. In turn, stock splits tend to weaken the disposition effect. The higher the stock split ratios, the weaker the disposition effect.
Research limitations/implications
This study has a limitation in that the authors exclude all stock splits with dividend events around the split date. These stock splits cover 37% of all splits in Indonesia.
Practical implications
Practically, individual investors should look for stock-related information to reduce disposition bias.
Originality/value
To the best of authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to test individual investors' attention on stock splits based on their buy-initiated trades. This study is also the first to test the impact of stock split ratios on the disposition effect reduction. This study's findings enrich the scant literature on individual investors' attention and how to reduce their disposition effect bias.
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