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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 27 September 2024

Doddy Ariefianto, Citra Amanda and Zaafri Ananto Husodo

To examine the relationship between the term structure of interest rates of sovereign bonds in emerging nations and their macroeconomic indicators, specifically emphasizing its…

Abstract

Purpose

To examine the relationship between the term structure of interest rates of sovereign bonds in emerging nations and their macroeconomic indicators, specifically emphasizing its persistence and interaction with inflation, foreign exchange and fiscal conditions.

Design/methodology/approach

Adopting the Mean Group Instrumental Variables (MGIV) technique, as proposed by Cui et al. (2020) and Norkute et al. (2021), this study analyzes a monthly panel dataset from nine emerging economies spanning January 2010 to October 2021, totaling 1,278 observations.

Findings

The findings reveal significant persistence in both slope and curvature, with a rising yield level linked to the term structure's flattening, while shifts in inflation and exchange rates correlate with its steepening.

Originality/value

Our study is among the few which used an empirically constructed measure of the term structure of interest instead of a theoretical construct. To best our knowledge, we are the first to employ MGIV.

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. 8 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 1 March 2021

Usman Arief and Zaäfri Ananto Husodo

This research studies private information from extreme price movements or jumps. The authors calculate the private information using a reduced form model from the stochastic…

Abstract

This research studies private information from extreme price movements or jumps. The authors calculate the private information using a reduced form model from the stochastic volatility jump process and use several statistical robustness tests as well as several frequencies to improve our consistency. This study reveals that private information is significant in explain the existence of jumps in capital markets in Southeast Asia, whereas macroeconomic events cannot explain them. The authors determine empirically that private information in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia are not persistent and its value gradually decreases when we use the lower frequency. Based on the Fama–Macbeth regression, this study shows that private information in the capital market has a strong positive relationship with individual returns in Indonesia’s capital market and Thailand’s capital market for all frequencies.

Details

Recent Developments in Asian Economics International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83867-359-8

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 9 November 2023

Ezra Valentino Purba and Zaäfri Ananto Husodo

This study aimed to know the effect of cross-sectional risk, which comprises business-specific risk and stock market volatility, as a variable for estimating macroeconomic risk in…

Abstract

This study aimed to know the effect of cross-sectional risk, which comprises business-specific risk and stock market volatility, as a variable for estimating macroeconomic risk in Indonesia. This study observes public companies in Indonesia and Indonesian macroeconomic data from 2004 to 2020. In this study, the author uses term spread as the dependent variable that reflects macroeconomic risk. The cross-sectional risk comprises financial friction (FF), cash flow (CF), debt–service ratio, and stock market volatility as independent variables. By using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model method, this study shows that business-specific and stock market risk can estimate macroeconomic risk, so that it becomes an early signal of economic shock, such as recession or high inflation, in the future. The model in this study also examines the cross-sectional risk relationship with other macroeconomic indicators, such as the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), money supply (M0), and Indonesia’s trade balance (TB).

Details

Macroeconomic Risk and Growth in the Southeast Asian Countries: Insight from Indonesia
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83797-043-8

Keywords

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 1 March 2021

Abstract

Details

Recent Developments in Asian Economics International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83867-359-8

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 9 November 2023

Abstract

Details

Macroeconomic Risk and Growth in the Southeast Asian Countries: Insight from Indonesia
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83797-043-8

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 26 November 2024

Guler Aras

Abstract

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. 8 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Article
Publication date: 19 May 2021

Wendy Kesuma, Irwan Adi Ekaputra and Dony Abdul Chalid

This paper investigates whether individual investors are attentive to stock splits and whether higher split ratios (stronger private information signals) reduce the disposition…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates whether individual investors are attentive to stock splits and whether higher split ratios (stronger private information signals) reduce the disposition effect.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employs stock split events and transaction data in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from January 2004 to December 2017. The authors measure individual investors' attention using buy-initiated trades. To test the effect of split signal on disposition effect, the authors regress individual investors' sell-initiated trades on past stock returns.

Findings

Unlike Birru (2015), the authors find that individual investors are attentive to stock splits, especially when stock split ratios are high. In turn, stock splits tend to weaken the disposition effect. The higher the stock split ratios, the weaker the disposition effect.

Research limitations/implications

This study has a limitation in that the authors exclude all stock splits with dividend events around the split date. These stock splits cover 37% of all splits in Indonesia.

Practical implications

Practically, individual investors should look for stock-related information to reduce disposition bias.

Originality/value

To the best of authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to test individual investors' attention on stock splits based on their buy-initiated trades. This study is also the first to test the impact of stock split ratios on the disposition effect reduction. This study's findings enrich the scant literature on individual investors' attention and how to reduce their disposition effect bias.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. 14 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

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