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Forecasting outpatient volume during a significant security crisis can provide reasonable decision-making references for hospital managers to prevent sudden outbreaks and dispatch medical resources on time. Based on the background of standard hospital operation and Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) periods, this paper constructs a hybrid grey model to forecast the outpatient volume to provide foresight decision support for hospital decision-makers.

This paper proposes an improved hybrid grey model for two stages. In the non-COVID-19 stage, the Aquila Optimizer (AO) is selected to optimize the modeling parameters. Fourier correction is applied to revise the stochastic disturbance. In the COVID-19 stage, this model adds the COVID-19 impact factor to improve the grey model forecasting results based on the dummy variables. The cycle of the dummy variables modifies the COVID-19 factor.

This paper tests the hybrid grey model on a large Chinese hospital in Jiangsu. The fitting MAPE is 2.48%, and the RMSE is 16463.69 in the training group. The test MAPE is 1.91%, and the RMSE is 9354.93 in the test group. The results of both groups are better than those of the comparative models.

The two-stage hybrid grey model can solve traditional hospitals' seasonal outpatient volume forecasting and provide future policy formulation references for sudden large-scale epidemics.

To solve the instability problem of Zhangjiayao landslide caused by rainfall, the internal mechanism of slope instability and the supporting effect of anti-slide piles are studied. The research results can provide theoretical basis for the prevention and control of loess landslides.

A three-dimensional finite element model of Zhangjiayao landslide is established by field geological survey, laboratory test and numerical simulation.

The results show that Zhangjiayao landslide is a loess-mudstone contact surface landslide, and rainfall leads to slope instability and traction landslide. The greater the rainfall intensity, the faster the pore water pressure of the slope increases and the faster the matrix suction decreases. The longer the rainfall duration, the greater the pore water pressure of the slope and the smaller the matrix suction. Anti-slide pile treatment can significantly improve slope stability. The slope safety factor increases with the increase of embedded depth of anti-slide pile and decreases with the increase of pile spacing.

Based on the unsaturated soil seepage theory and finite element strength reduction method, the failure mechanism of Zhangjiayao landslide was revealed, and the anti-slide pile structure was optimized and designed based on the pile-soil interaction principle. The research results can provide theoretical basis for the treatment of loess landslides.

1. A three-dimensional finite element model of Zhangjiayao landslide is established.

2. Zhangjiayao landslide is a loess-mudstone contact surface landslide.

3. The toe of Zhangjiayao slope is first damaged by heavy rainfall, resulting in traction landslide.

4. The deformation of Zhangjiayao slope is highly dependent on rainfall intensity and duration.

5. The anti-slide pile can effectively control the continuous sliding of Zhangjiayao slope.

A three-dimensional finite element model of Zhangjiayao landslide is established.

Zhangjiayao landslide is a loess-mudstone contact surface landslide.

The toe of Zhangjiayao slope is first damaged by heavy rainfall, resulting in traction landslide.

The deformation of Zhangjiayao slope is highly dependent on rainfall intensity and duration.

The anti-slide pile can effectively control the continuous sliding of Zhangjiayao slope.