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Article
Publication date: 29 June 2021

Jongdae Kim, Youseok Lee and Inseong Song

The purpose of this paper is to develop a predictive model for box office performance based on the textual information in movie scripts in the green-lighting process of movie…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to develop a predictive model for box office performance based on the textual information in movie scripts in the green-lighting process of movie production.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use Latent Dirichlet Allocation to determine the hidden textual structure in movie scripts by extracting topic probabilities as predictors for classification. The extracted topic probabilities are used as inputs for the predictive model for the box office performance. For the predictive model, the authors utilize a variety of classification algorithms such as logistic classification, decision trees, random forests, k-nearest neighbor algorithms, support vector machines and artificial neural networks, and compare their relative performances in predicting movies' market performance.

Findings

This approach for extracting textual information from movie scripts produces a valuable typology for movies. Moreover, our modeling approach has significant power to predict movie scripts' profitability. It provides a superior prediction performance compared to previous benchmarks, such as that of Eliashberg et al. (2007).

Research limitations/implications

This work contributes to literature on predicting the box office performance in the green-lighting process and literature regarding suggesting models for the idea screening stage in the new product development process. Besides, this is one of the few studies that use movie script data to predict movies' financial performance by proposing an approach to integrate text mining models and machine learning algorithms with movie experts' intuition.

Practical implications

First, the authors’ approach can significantly reduce the financial risk associated with movie production decisions before the pre-production stage. Second, this paper proposes an approach that is applicable at a very early stage of new product development, such as the idea screening stage. The authors also introduce an online-based movie scenario database system that can help movie studios make more systematic and profitable decisions in the green-lighting process. Third, this approach can help movie studios estimate movie scripts' financial value.

Originality/value

This study is one of the few studies to forecast market performance in the green-lighting process.

Details

Internet Research, vol. 32 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1066-2243

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Article
Publication date: 1 April 2020

Junhee Seok, Youseok Lee and Byung-Do Kim

This study clarifies the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) news reports and firm value and identifies the mechanisms that constitute this relationship…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study clarifies the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) news reports and firm value and identifies the mechanisms that constitute this relationship. Specifically, it identifies the roles of word of mouth (WOM) and traditional advertising in this relationship.

Design/methodology/approach

The data set used for the analysis covers 77 firms in Korea from 2012 to 2015. The random-effects model is applied to verify three hypotheses. Using a three-step regression analysis and the Sobel test, this study reveals the roles of WOM and advertising expenditure in the relationship between CSR news reports and firm value.

Findings

CSR news reports positively affect firm value, and this relationship is mediated by WOM and moderated by advertising expenditure. Notably, the positive effect of WOM on firm value is stronger for companies that spend less on advertising.

Practical implications

The evidence implies that marketing managers could benefit from not only conducting CSR activities but also widely publicizing them. CSR news reports could help companies enhance public awareness of and interest in them.

Originality/value

This is the first study to investigate the influence of CSR news reports using empirical data in Korea.

Details

Asia Pacific Journal of Marketing and Logistics, vol. 32 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1355-5855

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