Kuniko Urashima, Yoshiko Yokoo and Hiroshi Nagano
The 9th S&T Foresight for Japan has recently been completed. A key element of this Foresight is that S&T is now expected to indicate solutions for broad social issues and global…
Abstract
Purpose
The 9th S&T Foresight for Japan has recently been completed. A key element of this Foresight is that S&T is now expected to indicate solutions for broad social issues and global issues (climate change, etc.) including those that address Japan's most urgent challenges (e.g. energy, aging population). This mission‐oriented foresight is novel for the Japanese, since prior foresight exercises have been done with a technology focus. This paper aims to address how the new view of foresight – as more than mere technical potentials – has resulted in several types of foresight impacts, which are noted in the main text.
Design/methodology/approach
The 9th Delphi Survey involved two types of interdisciplinary perspectives related to Japan's social future (Safe, Secure, Cooperation and Collaboration) and 12 S&T fields. The committees discussed what could emerge within 30 years and involved 26 domains of social expertise and 140 specialists.
Findings
The 9th S&T Foresight investigation consists of an integration of three foresight methods – Delphi survey, scenario writing, and capability of local regions for green innovation – regarding sustainable development. Each method provides clear messages, and has unique impacts.
Originality/value
Overall, a major foresight impact has been to enable a broader view of innovation to prevail in this ninth foresight, where social‐scenario insights and more socially adaptive policies complement the traditional S&T focus developed by Delphi surveys 1‐8. This shifted the policy discourse toward societal innovation from technical innovation.
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Keywords
Yoshiko Yokoo and Kumi Okuwada
This paper attempts to examine the efficacy of combining outputs from a foresight exercise by different methods to get information for discussion on strategies of sustainable…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper attempts to examine the efficacy of combining outputs from a foresight exercise by different methods to get information for discussion on strategies of sustainable growth through science and technology. It seeks to address the combination of outputs in an objective manner to identify expected areas of future innovation toward the desired future as well as related areas that are supposed to play a key part.
Design/methodology/approach
Three investigative studies using the Delphi method, scenario and workshop were conducted independently in consideration of four global or national challenges. The points of the studies are interdisciplinary or diversified discussion and a mission‐oriented approach. Information from the Delphi method and scenario is converged using text mining to position scientific and technological areas in a big picture.
Findings
Combining outputs reveals the whole picture of scientific and technological areas, including specific areas and common factors to be promoted toward the desired society. The result shows that green‐related and life‐related areas are two major areas where future innovation is expected. ICT, management and globalization are common factors that would be critical to promote innovations in these areas.
Originality/value
This paper is a case study of combining outputs at the last stage of a national foresight exercise to identify areas where future innovation is expected. It suggests the potential of combining outputs by capitalizing on the full value of the information obtained.