This paper is concerned with the effects of weather uncertainty on the electricity future curve. Following the approach used by Lucia and Schwartz (2002), the behavior of the…
Abstract
This paper is concerned with the effects of weather uncertainty on the electricity future curve. Following the approach used by Lucia and Schwartz (2002), the behavior of the underlying spot price is assumed to consist of two components ‘ a totally predictable deterministic component that accounts for regularities in the evolution of prices and a stochastic component that accounts for the behavior of residuals from the deterministic part. The weather uncertainty is modeled consistently with seasonal outlook probabilities from the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) outlook. For a given realization of temperature, the electricity load can be predicted very accurately by a time series model using temperature and other explanatory variables. Furthermore, if temperature and electricity load are known, the spot price can be predicted as well using the regime switching model with time-varying transition probabilities. The electricity future price can be calculated for the given seasonal probabilities from the CPC outlook. Then the electricity future price can be obtained as the arithmetic average of the one-day electricity future price. The future price reflects clearly the response of the spot price to different weather patterns. As the summer gets warmer, the high price regime is more likely to be realized, and as a result, the future price increases.
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Jiawei Sun, Peng Yi, Hong-Yu Jia, Xiao-Shuang Yang, Yong-Jun Shi, Yancong Liu and Muming Hao
This paper aims to investigate the influence of sinusoidal texture (ST) with different morphology parameters on the corresponding tribological effects.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate the influence of sinusoidal texture (ST) with different morphology parameters on the corresponding tribological effects.
Design/methodology/approach
The STs with different amplitudes, ranging from 0.05 to 0.3 mm, and frequencies, ranging from 5 to 17.5, are fabricated using nanosecond pulsed laser equipment. The friction experiments and the finite element analysis method are combined to investigate the tribological properties, under dry friction conditions.
Findings
Test results show that when the amplitude is 0.15 mm and frequency is 10, ST surface has the lowest friction coefficient of 0.373, and exhibits great anti-friction effect. It also possesses a complete texture edge after friction. The friction reduction effect of ST with larger or smaller amplitude and frequency is worse.
Originality/value
The results of this study can provide a guidance for the design optimization of ST of reciprocating sliding contact surfaces, under dry friction conditions.
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Abstract
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Yong Shi, Pamela Specht and Justin Stolen
In allocating scarce resources to a new information system (IS), a non‐trivial task becomes the determination of a best priority ranking of the IS’s intangible information…
Abstract
In allocating scarce resources to a new information system (IS), a non‐trivial task becomes the determination of a best priority ranking of the IS’s intangible information requirements. Given a set of individual users’ rankings of the information requirements, illustrates, through a real‐world case study, a streamlined consensus priority ranking (SCPR) method based on a concept of minimizing the disagreement (distance) between individual rankings. Compared to a traditional weighted ranking method, the SCPR method is easy to understand, systematic and requires no weighting methodology. Thus, the SCPR method can help the system development team make efficient decisions when allocating resources for a new information system.
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Suggests that misunderstandings frequently occur when trying to understand Chinese language and culture, and so gives the implied meaning of various Chinese expressions and…
Abstract
Suggests that misunderstandings frequently occur when trying to understand Chinese language and culture, and so gives the implied meaning of various Chinese expressions and sayings such as greetings, thanks, respect, age, congratulations and taboo subjects.
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Wendy Ming‐Yen Teoh, Siong‐Choy Chong and Shi Mid Yong
This paper explores factors affecting spending behavior of credit card holders in Malaysia. Specifically, variables such as demographic factors, banks’ policies, and credit card…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper explores factors affecting spending behavior of credit card holders in Malaysia. Specifically, variables such as demographic factors, banks’ policies, and credit card holders’ attitudes toward money are examined.
Design/methodology/approach
A cross‐sectional survey through the use of a structured questionnaire was administered on 150 credit card holders based on the area sampling and convenience snowball sampling techniques.
Findings
The results indicate that age, income, and marital status have significant correlation with credit card holders’ spending behavior. The same goes to two of the three items identified under banks’ policies (benefits given and payment policies) and attitudes toward money (willingness to pay and awareness of the total debt owed). Occupation, qualifications to apply for credit card, and management of income vs expenses are not significantly related to credit card spending behavior among Malaysians.
Research limitations/implications
The study serves as a guide for researchers to extend the research work covering more variables in different economies in light of the low R2 value. The small sample size raises the issue of generalizability, which future studies should address.
Practical implications
The results could be used as a guide by emerging market economies or even developed countries where credit card usage is a widespread phenomenon. It also provides insights to the credit card issuing banks in terms of understanding their target consumers, preferences, and the effect of their policies on credit card application and use.
Originality/value
This study sheds light on credit card spending behavior, particularly among Malaysians.
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Forests should be thought of not merely as “timber”,but also as treasuries of plants and animals as well as “greenreservoirs”. The preservation and management of montane…
Abstract
Forests should be thought of not merely as “timber”, but also as treasuries of plants and animals as well as “green reservoirs”. The preservation and management of montane forests are therefore of importance. Different ways should be adopted according to the corresponding conditions of four montane forest regions of China. Afforestation in the humid eastern plains and southern rolling hills should be paid great attention, because these areas have much more rainfall, deep and fertile soil and sufficient atmospheric heat. Protection forests planted on farmlands and along the southeastern seaboard not only raise the output of crops, but also provide timber, fuel and forage. It is necessary to strengthen the rewarding utilisation system of forest resources. The current irrational remuneration of afforestation workers and forest engineering workers doing similar jobs but for different wages must be changed.
Xiaodong Zhang, Ping Li, Xiaoning Ma and Yanjun Liu
The operating wagon records were produced from distinct railway information systems, which resulted in the wagon routing record with the same oriental destination (OD) was…
Abstract
Purpose
The operating wagon records were produced from distinct railway information systems, which resulted in the wagon routing record with the same oriental destination (OD) was different. This phenomenon has brought considerable difficulties to the railway wagon flow forecast. Some were because of poor data quality, which misled the actual prediction, while others were because of the existence of another actual wagon routings. This paper aims at finding all the wagon routing locus patterns from the history records, and thus puts forward an intelligent recognition method for the actual routing locus pattern of railway wagon flow based on SST algorithm.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on the big data of railway wagon flow records, the routing metadata model is constructed, and the historical data and real-time data are fused to improve the reliability of the path forecast results in the work of railway wagon flow forecast. Based on the division of spatial characteristics and the reduction of dimension in the distributary station, the improved Simhash algorithm is used to calculate the routing fingerprint. Combined with Squared Error Adjacency Matrix Clustering algorithm and Tarjan algorithm, the fingerprint similarity is calculated, the spatial characteristics are clustering and identified, the routing locus mode is formed and then the intelligent recognition of the actual wagon flow routing locus is realized.
Findings
This paper puts forward a more realistic method of railway wagon routing pattern recognition algorithm. The problem of traditional railway wagon routing planning is converted into the routing locus pattern recognition problem, and the wagon routing pattern of all OD streams is excavated from the historical data results. The analysis is carried out from three aspects: routing metadata, routing locus fingerprint and routing locus pattern. Then, the intelligent recognition SST-based algorithm of railway wagon routing locus pattern is proposed, which combines the history data and instant data to improve the reliability of the wagon routing selection result. Finally, railway wagon routing locus could be found out accurately, and the case study tests the validity of the algorithm.
Practical implications
Before the forecasting work of railway wagon flow, it needs to know how many kinds of wagon routing locus exist in a certain OD. Mining all the OD routing locus patterns from the railway wagon operating records is helpful to forecast the future routing combined with the wagon characteristics. The work of this paper is the basis of the railway wagon routing forecast.
Originality/value
As the basis of the railway wagon routing forecast, this research not only improves the accuracy and efficiency for the railway wagon routing forecast but also provides the further support of decision-making for the railway freight transportation organization.