Yidu Zhang, Yongshou Liu and Qing Guo
This paper aims to develop a method for evaluating the failure probability and global sensitivity of multiple failure modes based on convex-probability hybrid uncertainty.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to develop a method for evaluating the failure probability and global sensitivity of multiple failure modes based on convex-probability hybrid uncertainty.
Design/methodology/approach
The uncertainty information of the input variable is considered as convex-probability hybrid uncertainty. Moment-independent variable global sensitivity index based on the system failure probability is proposed to quantify the effect of the input variable on the system failure probability. Two-mode sensitivity indices are adopted to characterize the effect of each failure mode on the system failure probability. The method based on active learning Kriging (ALK) model with a truncated candidate regions (TCR) is adopted to evaluate the systems failure probability, as well as sensitivity index and this method is termed as ALK-TCR.
Findings
The results of five examples demonstrate the effectiveness of the sensitivity index and the efficiency of the ALK-TCR method in solving the problem of multiple failure modes based on the convex-probability hybrid uncertainty.
Originality/value
Convex-probability hybrid uncertainty is considered on system reliability analysis. Moment-independent variable sensitivity index based on the system failure probability is proposed. Mode sensitivity indices are extended to hybrid uncertain reliability model. An effective global sensitivity analysis approach is developed for the multiple failure modes based on convex-probability hybrid uncertainty.
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Tillmann Sachs, Robert Tiong and Shou Qing Wang
The paper aims to provide insight into the opportunities and impact of political risks in China and selected Asian countries on opportunities in infrastructure projects under…
Abstract
Purpose
The paper aims to provide insight into the opportunities and impact of political risks in China and selected Asian countries on opportunities in infrastructure projects under public‐private partnership (PPP) schemes.
Design/methodology/approach
The impact of political risks on PPPs was investigated through an international survey among senior staff of international lenders, investors, insurers, and legal and financial advisors from the public and private sector. The surveyed political risk categories base on the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency Convention and literature review. They comprise six categories: currency inconvertibility and transfer restriction, expropriation, breach of contract, political violence, legal, regulatory and bureaucratic risks, and non‐governmental action risks. The survey evaluation uses fuzzy sets and non‐parametric statistics.
Findings
The findings comprise rankings of political risk factors within China and Asian countries as well as rankings of these countries with respect to the risk categories and rankings of future PPP opportunities over time. Also, survey comments are discussed.
Research limitations/implications
The survey response rate is relatively low with 29 respondents. This is attributed to the specialized nature of the survey questions and topic area. It also indicates that political risks are little understood and paid attention to, though significant in impact. Owing to the chosen evaluation methods for small sample sizes, the results are robust and show high correlations with market data.
Practical implications
The results provide insight into the impact of political risks and the perceived magnitude of each risk category. It supports decision makers prioritizing and analyzing country risks.
Originality/value
The value and originality is in the use of a fuzzy‐coded survey scale to quantify perceptions on single political risk factors across China and Asian countries with focus on PPP infrastructure projects. The paper demonstrated that robust results from small sample sizes can be derived with the employed methods.
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The purpose of this paper is to take occupation opportunity as an indicator to examine the impact of hukou on labor market segmentation in China. It estimates the scale of the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to take occupation opportunity as an indicator to examine the impact of hukou on labor market segmentation in China. It estimates the scale of the impact and identifies the way of the impact. Especially, the paper takes hukou uniform reform as an example and tests whether hukou reforms helped in eliminating labor market segmentation.
Design/methodology/approach
The data sets this paper adopted are the 2000 Census and 2005 Mini Census data in China. Linear model and Probit model are used in estimating hukou's impact. Oaxaca/Blinder decomposition is used in decomposing the difference in occupation distribution among hukou statuses. DID evaluation method is used in comparing the region with hukou uniform reform and the region without to capture the influence of the reform.
Findings
The result shows that occupation segmentation based on hukou significantly exists in urban labor market. Hukou uniform reform improved the occupation opportunity of local rural workers but migrating rural workers were somehow crowded out. Migrating urban workers did not benefit from the reform. To conclude these, the reform released employment segmentation between rural and urban workers within the reformed region but strengthened the segmentation between the local residents and outcomers which could influence future labor source and scale in reformed area.
Originality/value
The paper evaluates the hukou uniform reform's impact on the labor market using an empirical way for the first time and makes concrete policy recommendations based on these findings.
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Zijian Wang, Ximing Xiao, Shiwei Fu and Qinggong Shi
This study aims to uncover the mechanisms behind the marginalization of county-level public libraries.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to uncover the mechanisms behind the marginalization of county-level public libraries.
Design/methodology/approach
The research surveyed 25 counties in central China, including Hubei, Chongqing, Hunan, and Guizhou provinces. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with library directors and deputy directors, focusing on main and branch library construction, cultural inclusivity, library assessment, and digital services.
Findings
Contributing factors to library marginalization were identified as economic pressure, institutional domain, longstanding issues, organizational entity, and societal misconceptions. Building on this, the study introduces the HBAC model to explain county-level public library marginalization. Considering the actual social context of these libraries, the article proposes a “3 + 1” approach to mitigate their marginalization.
Originality/value
The research methodology, analysis process, theoretical model, and recommendations provided could shed light on academic research and practical exploration in the field of public libraries globally.