Bingzi Jin and Xiaojie Xu
The purpose of this study is to make property price forecasts for the Chinese housing market that has grown rapidly in the last 10 years, which is an important concern for both…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to make property price forecasts for the Chinese housing market that has grown rapidly in the last 10 years, which is an important concern for both government and investors.
Design/methodology/approach
This study examines Gaussian process regressions with different kernels and basis functions for monthly pre-owned housing price index estimates for ten major Chinese cities from March 2012 to May 2020. The authors do this by using Bayesian optimizations and cross-validation.
Findings
The ten price indices from June 2019 to May 2020 are accurately predicted out-of-sample by the established models, which have relative root mean square errors ranging from 0.0458% to 0.3035% and correlation coefficients ranging from 93.9160% to 99.9653%.
Originality/value
The results might be applied separately or in conjunction with other forecasts to develop hypotheses regarding the patterns in the pre-owned residential real estate price index and conduct further policy research.
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Bingzi Jin, Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang
Predicting commodity futures trading volumes represents an important matter to policymakers and a wide spectrum of market participants. The purpose of this study is to concentrate…
Abstract
Purpose
Predicting commodity futures trading volumes represents an important matter to policymakers and a wide spectrum of market participants. The purpose of this study is to concentrate on the energy sector and explore the trading volume prediction issue for the thermal coal futures traded in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange in China with daily data spanning January 2016–December 2020.
Design/methodology/approach
The nonlinear autoregressive neural network is adopted for this purpose and prediction performance is examined based upon a variety of settings over algorithms for model estimations, numbers of hidden neurons and delays and ratios for splitting the trading volume series into training, validation and testing phases.
Findings
A relatively simple model setting is arrived at that leads to predictions of good accuracy and stabilities and maintains small prediction errors up to the 99.273th quantile of the observed trading volume.
Originality/value
The results could, on one hand, serve as standalone technical trading volume predictions. They could, on the other hand, be combined with different (fundamental) prediction results for forming perspectives of trading trends and carrying out policy analysis.
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Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang
Forecasts of commodity prices are vital issues to market participants and policy makers. Those of corn are of no exception, considering its strategic importance. In the present…
Abstract
Purpose
Forecasts of commodity prices are vital issues to market participants and policy makers. Those of corn are of no exception, considering its strategic importance. In the present study, the authors assess the forecast problem for the weekly wholesale price index of yellow corn in China during January 1, 2010–January 10, 2020 period.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ the nonlinear auto-regressive neural network as the forecast tool and evaluate forecast performance of different model settings over algorithms, delays, hidden neurons and data splitting ratios in arriving at the final model.
Findings
The final model is relatively simple and leads to accurate and stable results. Particularly, it generates relative root mean square errors of 1.05%, 1.08% and 1.03% for training, validation and testing, respectively.
Originality/value
Through the analysis, the study shows usefulness of the neural network technique for commodity price forecasts. The results might serve as technical forecasts on a standalone basis or be combined with other fundamental forecasts for perspectives of price trends and corresponding policy analysis.
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Bingzi Jin and Xiaojie Xu
Agriculture commodity price forecasts have long been important for a variety of market players. The study we conducted aims to address this difficulty by examining the weekly…
Abstract
Purpose
Agriculture commodity price forecasts have long been important for a variety of market players. The study we conducted aims to address this difficulty by examining the weekly wholesale price index of green grams in the Chinese market. The index covers a ten-year period, from January 1, 2010, to January 3, 2020, and has significant economic implications.
Design/methodology/approach
In order to address the nonlinear patterns present in the price time series, we investigate the nonlinear auto-regressive neural network as the forecast model. This modeling technique is able to combine a variety of basic nonlinear functions to approximate more complex nonlinear characteristics. Specifically, we examine prediction performance that corresponds to several configurations across data splitting ratios, hidden neuron and delay counts, and model estimation approaches.
Findings
Our model turns out to be rather simple and yields forecasts with good stability and accuracy. Relative root mean square errors throughout training, validation and testing are specifically 4.34, 4.71 and 3.98%, respectively. The results of benchmark research show that the neural network produces statistically considerably better performance when compared to other machine learning models and classic time-series econometric methods.
Originality/value
Utilizing our findings as independent technical price forecasts would be one use. Alternatively, policy research and fresh insights into price patterns might be achieved by combining them with other (basic) prediction outputs.
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Fangfang Xia, Changfeng Wang, Rui Sun and Mingyue Qi
This study aims to identify an antecedent that hinders knowledge sharing, namely, the perceived climate of Cha-xu. Based on the social exchange perspective, the authors propose a…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to identify an antecedent that hinders knowledge sharing, namely, the perceived climate of Cha-xu. Based on the social exchange perspective, the authors propose a theoretical model that links the perceived climate of Cha-xu to employee knowledge sharing. This model focuses on the mediating role of two types of trust (vertical and horizontal trust) and the moderating role of task interdependence in influencing the mediation.
Design/methodology/approach
Using a sample of 509 Chinese employees, this study carried out a survey on an online platform. This study developed a structural equation model and tested the moderated mediation hypothesis by using Mplus 8.0.
Findings
The results showed that two types of trust act as mediators in the relationship between the perceived climate of Cha-xu and knowledge-sharing processes. The mediating effect of horizontal trust is stronger. Most significantly, findings show that this mediated relationship is contingent on the level of task interdependence.
Originality/value
This paper provides evidence for distinguishing vertical trust and horizontal trust in the field of knowledge management. From a managerial perspective, this study identifies traditional cultural factors for hindering knowledge-sharing processes within Chinese organizations.
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Nima Gerami Seresht, Rodolfo Lourenzutti, Ahmad Salah and Aminah Robinson Fayek
Due to the increasing size and complexity of construction projects, construction engineering and management involves the coordination of many complex and dynamic processes and…
Abstract
Due to the increasing size and complexity of construction projects, construction engineering and management involves the coordination of many complex and dynamic processes and relies on the analysis of uncertain, imprecise and incomplete information, including subjective and linguistically expressed information. Various modelling and computing techniques have been used by construction researchers and applied to practical construction problems in order to overcome these challenges, including fuzzy hybrid techniques. Fuzzy hybrid techniques combine the human-like reasoning capabilities of fuzzy logic with the capabilities of other techniques, such as optimization, machine learning, multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) and simulation, to capitalise on their strengths and overcome their limitations. Based on a review of construction literature, this chapter identifies the most common types of fuzzy hybrid techniques applied to construction problems and reviews selected papers in each category of fuzzy hybrid technique to illustrate their capabilities for addressing construction challenges. Finally, this chapter discusses areas for future development of fuzzy hybrid techniques that will increase their capabilities for solving construction-related problems. The contributions of this chapter are threefold: (1) the limitations of some standard techniques for solving construction problems are discussed, as are the ways that fuzzy methods have been hybridized with these techniques in order to address their limitations; (2) a review of existing applications of fuzzy hybrid techniques in construction is provided in order to illustrate the capabilities of these techniques for solving a variety of construction problems and (3) potential improvements in each category of fuzzy hybrid technique in construction are provided, as areas for future research.
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Gives a bibliographical review of the finite element methods (FEMs) applied for the linear and nonlinear, static and dynamic analyses of basic structural elements from the…
Abstract
Gives a bibliographical review of the finite element methods (FEMs) applied for the linear and nonlinear, static and dynamic analyses of basic structural elements from the theoretical as well as practical points of view. The range of applications of FEMs in this area is wide and cannot be presented in a single paper; therefore aims to give the reader an encyclopaedic view on the subject. The bibliography at the end of the paper contains 2,025 references to papers, conference proceedings and theses/dissertations dealing with the analysis of beams, columns, rods, bars, cables, discs, blades, shafts, membranes, plates and shells that were published in 1992‐1995.
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Meng-Xian Wang and Jian-qiang Wang
Online reviews increasingly present the characteristic of bidirectional communication with the advent of Web 2.0 era and tend to be asymmetrical and individualized in linguistic…
Abstract
Purpose
Online reviews increasingly present the characteristic of bidirectional communication with the advent of Web 2.0 era and tend to be asymmetrical and individualized in linguistic information. The authors aim to develop a new linguistic conversion model that exploits the asymmetric and personalized information from online reviews to express such linguistic information. A new online recommendation approach is provided.
Design/methodology/approach
The necessity of new linguistic conversation model is elucidated, and a leverage factor is incorporated into the linguistic label of negative review to handle the asymmetry problems of linguistic scale. A possible value range of the leverage factor is studied. A new linguistic conversation model is accordingly established with an unbalanced linguistic label and a cloud model. The authors develop a new online recommendation approach based on several modules, such as initialization, conversion, user-clustering and recommendation models.
Findings
The unbalanced effect between negative and positive reviews is verified with real data and measured using indirect methods. A new online recommendation approach of electronic products is proposed and used as an illustrative example to prove the practicality, effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed approach.
Research limitations/implications
Due to the unavailable transaction information of customers, the limitation of this study is the effectiveness of the authors’ established recommendation system for platform or website cannot be verified.
Originality/value
In most existing studies, the influence of negative review is counterbalanced by positive review, and the unbalanced effect between negative and positive reviews is ignored. The negative review receives much attention from consumers and businesses. This study thus highlights the influence of negative review.