Xiyang Li, Bin Li, Tarlok Singh and Kan Shi
This study aims to draw on a less explored predictor – the average correlation of pairwise returns on industry portfolios – to predict stock market returns (SMRs) in the USA.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to draw on a less explored predictor – the average correlation of pairwise returns on industry portfolios – to predict stock market returns (SMRs) in the USA.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses the average correlation approach of Pollet and Wilson (2010) and predicts the SMRs in the USA. The model is estimated using monthly data for a long time horizon, from July 1963 to December 2018, for the portfolios comprising 48 Fama-French industries. The model is extended to examine the effects of a longer lag structure of one-month to four-month lags and to control for the effects of a number of variables – average variance (AV), cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE), term spread (TS), default spread (DS), risk-free rate returns (R_f) and lagged excess market returns (R_s).
Findings
The study finds that the two-month lagged average correlation of returns on individual industry portfolios, used individually and collectively with financial predictors and economic factors, predicts excess returns on the stock market in an effective manner.
Research limitations/implications
The methodology and results are of interest to academics as they could further explore the use of average correlation to improve the predictive powers of their models.
Practical implications
Market practitioners could include the average correlation in their asset pricing models to improve the predictions for the future trend in stock market returns. Investors could consider including average correlation in their forecasting models, along with the traditional financial ratios and economic indicators. They could adjust their expected returns to a lower level when the average correlation increases during a recession.
Social implications
The finding that recession periods have effects on the SMRs would be useful for the policymakers. The understanding of the co-movement of returns on industry portfolios during a recession would be useful for the formulation of policies aimed at ensuring the stability of the financial markets.
Originality/value
The study contributes to the literature on three counts. First, the study uses industry portfolio returns – as compared to individual stock returns used in Pollet and Wilson (2010) – in constructing average correlation. When stock market becomes more volatile on returns, the individual stocks are more diverse on their performance; the comovement between individual stock returns might be dominated by the idiosyncratic component, which may not have any implications for future SMRs. Using the industry portfolio returns can potentially reduce such an effect by a large extent, and thus, can provide more reliable estimates. Second, the effects of business cycles could be better identified in a long sample period and through several sub-sample tests. This study uses a data set, which spans the period from July 1963 to December 2018. This long sample period covers multiple phases of business cycles. The daily data are used to compute the monthly and equally-weighted average correlation of returns on 48 Fama-French industry portfolios. Third, previous studies have often ignored the use of investors’ sentiments in their prediction models, while investors’ irrational decisions could have an important impact on expected returns (Huang et al., 2015). This study extends the analysis and incorporates investors’ sentiments in the model.
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Hui Zhang, Xiyang Li, Za Kan, Xiaohai Zhang and Zhiyong Li
Reducing production auxiliary time is the key to improve the efficiency of the existing mixed-flow assembly line. This paper proposes a method combining improved genetic algorithm…
Abstract
Purpose
Reducing production auxiliary time is the key to improve the efficiency of the existing mixed-flow assembly line. This paper proposes a method combining improved genetic algorithm (GA) and Flexsim software. It also investigates mixed-flow assembly line scheduling and just-in-time (JIT) parts feeding scheme to reduce waste in production while taking the existing hill-drop mixed-flow assembly line as an example to verify the effectiveness of the method.
Design/methodology/approach
In this research, a method is presented to optimize the efficiency of the present assembly line. The multi-objective mathematical model is established based on the objective function of the minimum production cycle and part consumption balance, and the solution model is developed using multi-objective GA to obtain the mixed flow scheduling scheme of the hill-drop planter. Furthermore, modeling and simulation with Flexsim software are investigated along with the contents of line inventory, parts transportation means, daily feeding times and time points.
Findings
Theoretical analysis and simulation experiments are carried out in this paper while taking an example of a hill-drop planter mixed-flow assembly line. The results indicate that the method can effectively reduce the idle and overload of the assembly line, use the transportation resources rationally and decrease the accumulation of the line inventory.
Originality/value
The method of combining improved GA and Flexsim software was used here for the first time intuitively and efficiently to study the balance of existing production lines and JIT feeding of parts. Investigating the production scheduling scheme provides a reference for the enterprise production line accompanied by the quantity allocation of transportation tools, the inventory consumption of the spare parts along the line and the utilization rate of each station to reduce the auxiliary time and apply practically.
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Zhi-Ping Fan, Yang Xi and Yongli Li
Online product ratings play an important role in the decision-making process of consumers, which are not only sources of information used by consumers to understand the function…
Abstract
Purpose
Online product ratings play an important role in the decision-making process of consumers, which are not only sources of information used by consumers to understand the function and quality of a product or service but also sources of information used to find desirable products. The purpose of this paper is to develop a decision-based method for supporting the purchase decisions of consumers based on not only the online product ratings but also the actual product attributes.
Design/methodology/approach
First, two types of utility values are designed to measure the preference of the consumer based on either online ratings or actual product attributes. Then, the traditional TOPSIS method is adopted to achieve a comprehensive value by integrating the two types of utility values so that all of the alternative products can be ranked. Further, a product selection support system prototype is designed and developed to support the purchase decisions of consumers.
Findings
To help consumers select desirable products efficiently, it is necessary to develop a product selection method based on the online ratings of alternative products and consumer expectations.
Practical implications
The research shows that the proposed method can not only support consumers’ purchase decisions based on a large number of online product ratings but also help manufacturers to find out consumers’ demands or requirements on products so as to facilitate the design of new products or the improvement of products. On the basis of the proposed method, the developed system prototype is helpful for consumers to select desirable products.
Originality/value
To support the purchase decisions of consumers, a new decision-based method for selecting desirable online products is proposed.
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Changzheng Gao, Juepin Hou and Jian Gong
Abundance of cultural resources is a typical feature of traditional villages. It is particularly important to explore the development path of traditional villages from the…
Abstract
Purpose
Abundance of cultural resources is a typical feature of traditional villages. It is particularly important to explore the development path of traditional villages from the perspective of cultural resources.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on symbiosis theory, establish a symbiotic development mechanism of traditional village characteristic cultural elements and use grey relation analysis (GRA) to evaluate the resource advantages of different cultural attributes. This paper proposes the traditional village development model of different symbiotic units in the county. An empirical study is conducted in conjunction with the national historical and cultural city of Xunxian County, Henan, China.
Findings
The results show that (1) according to the different attributes of humanistic cultural resources, artificial cultural resources and natural cultural resources in traditional villages, different symbiotic units can be divided, and advantageous resources can be shared through the symbiotic interface; (2) using GRA to calculate the grey relational degree between cultural resources sequence of different attributes and the sum of cultural resources sequence in the county and define as the active degree of humanistic culture, the inheritance degree of artificial culture and the integrity of natural cultural resources are shown to reflect the status of the inheritance of humanistic cultural resources, the existence of artificial cultural resources, and the protection of natural cultural resources; and (3) a comparative analysis of the active degree, inheritance, and integrity of each symbiotic unit leads to the proposal of three symbiotic models of folklore vitality, characteristic space, and natural ecology, all of which are beneficial to promote the formation of a symbiotic environment.
Originality/value
The main innovation of this paper is to put forward the research scale of symbiosis theory in the field of urban and rural planning at the county level, delimit the symbiosis units of traditional villages at the county level, complete the quantitatively evaluate cultural resources in different symbiotic units with GRA, revealing the symbiotic development mechanism of cultural resources characteristic elements in traditional villages.
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Chinese gazetteers are one of the most important primary sources for the study of history of Chinese economy, politics, culture, military, and science and technology. Since the…
Abstract
Purpose
Chinese gazetteers are one of the most important primary sources for the study of history of Chinese economy, politics, culture, military, and science and technology. Since the very beginning, the Yale East Asia Library has been keen on collecting Chinese gazetteers. However, unlike its peer research libraries in the USA, the Yale East Asia Library had never compiled a catalog or written an article about its gazetteer collection. The purpose of this paper is to systematically review, for the first time, original editions of Chinese gazetteers held in the Yale East Asia Library to reveal the holdings and research value.
Design/methodology/approach
The author conducted a survey of original editions of Chinese gazetteers in the Yale East Asia Library by searching the Yale online library catalog and comparing with existing catalogs of Chinese local gazetteers compiled by other research libraries in the USA. The paper focuses on the edition, coverage, rarity and variety of Yale's holdings.
Findings
According to the author's findings and preliminary research, Yale holds approximately 337 original Chinese gazetteers. The majority of them is rarely found in other North American research libraries and thus has high research value. They cover almost all provinces and municipalities in China and have a great variety of types.
Research limitations/implications
Although the author tried to use various search strategies to look up in the Yale online library catalog to ensure high retrieval, the results here may not be accurate. Also it is likely that a number of Chinese gazetteers are not recorded in the Yale online library catalog because of backlogs. A physical survey of Chinese gazetteer holdings at Yale and more research need to be done in the future.
Originality/value
This paper is the first of its kind to provide a systematic review of original editions of Chinese gazetteers held in the Yale East Asia Library.
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One of the standard practices of Communist Parties around the world is to employ art, including music, as a channel to spread political ideologies. This study aims to scrutinize…
Abstract
Purpose
One of the standard practices of Communist Parties around the world is to employ art, including music, as a channel to spread political ideologies. This study aims to scrutinize the reception of Beethoven's music, particularly from a political viewpoint, by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in the People's Republic of China (PRC) during the early years of its rule, i.e. from 1949–1959. The ambiguity of Beethoven's own political outlook may have provided an opportunity for the CCP to choose the composer and his music in support of its aims.
Design/methodology/approach
To understand why and how the CCP could exploit Beethoven and his music to support its political ideologies, a series of Chinese writings on Beethoven between 1949 and 1959 have been studied. Those literatures not only helped the composer gain reputation and popularity in the PRC, but also provided a platform for the CCP to manipulate such candidate and his music. Finally, the reception of the performances of the Ninth Symphony in 1959 in the PRC is singled out for close examination.
Findings
During the first ten years of the establishment of the PRC, the quantity and quality of the articles on Beethoven expanded considerably. These writings continued to reflect the reception of Beethoven and his music with the addition of political nuances that could be interpreted in the CCP's favour.
Originality/value
This paper seeks to examine the PRC's artistic policies, with a particular emphasis on the reception of Beethoven and western classical music.
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Valeriu Dragan, Oana Dumitrescu, Ion Malael and Adrian Daniel Azoitei
Turboshaft engines usually include one centrifugal compressor due to its high-pressure ratio, stability and compactness. Many designers rely on positive raking to decrease tip gap…
Abstract
Purpose
Turboshaft engines usually include one centrifugal compressor due to its high-pressure ratio, stability and compactness. Many designers rely on positive raking to decrease tip gap flow and therefore losses. However recent optimization studies revealed geometries contradicting this canonic view. Hence, this paper aims to investigate how the rake angle alone can influence performance and to which extent.
Design/methodology/approach
A turboshaft representative impeller was chosen and altered for null and +/−30° rake angles. Menter's shear stress transport model is used for steady computational fluid dynamics simulations, sweeping the nominal speedline at various tip clearances. Backsweep distribution is identical in all cases, isolating rake influence.
Findings
Pressure ratio was lowered for the both positively and negatively raked blades, but through distinct aerodynamic mechanisms. Although the flow through the tip gap was lower for the positive rake, this is due to lower blade loading. Splitter comparison reveal that these effects are more pronounced in the radial regions.
Practical implications
Some of the findings may extend beyond turboshaft engines, into turbochargers, home appliances or industrial blowers. However, all extrapolations must consider specific differences between these applications. Turboshaft compressors designers can benefit from this study when setting up their free parameters and penalty functions in the early concept stages.
Originality/value
Only few similar studies can be found in the literature to date, none similar to turboshaft applications. Also, this impeller is designed to eliminate leading edge shocks and suction side boundary layer separation, which makes it easier to isolate the tip gap flow effects. The authors also provide a framework on which semi-empirical design equations can be further developed to incorporate rake into 1D design tools.