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The purpose of this paper is to model the announcement returns of merging firms based on managerial overconfidence about merger synergy.

The paper applies continuous‐time real options techniques and game theoretic concepts. Managerial overconfidence and strategic interaction between the bidder and the target are incorporated into the model.

This model implies that: abnormal returns to bidding shareholders will be negative with a high degree of managerial overconfidence; combined returns to shareholders are usually positive; and both the bidder's and the target's abnormal returns are related to industry characteristics, the degree of managerial overconfidence, and the way merger synergies are divided.

This paper, for the first time, reconciles theoretically the following stylized facts: combined returns to shareholders are usually positive; and returns to the acquirer are, on average, not positive. In addition, the model generates new predictions relating these returns to industry characteristics and the degree of managerial overconfidence.

The purpose of this paper is to simplify the computation of parameter estimation in the grey linear regression model and solve the problem that the development coefficient could not be computed in some sequence data, such as short‐term traffic flow.

Starting from the limitation that can be identified in the equation and analyzing the range using the method to estimate parameters, this paper researches the modelling mechanism and the other forms which are equivalent with the original form. At the same time, this paper gives an estimation method and gets the relationship in various forms and the relationship between the model and GM(1,1) model.

For the grey linear regression model, there exists a new method of parameter identification and three other forms as follows: the original form, the Whitenization equation and the connotation form.

The method of parameter identification exposed in the paper expanded the scope of the application of the grey linear regression model, and it can be used to model and forecast the urban road short‐time traffic flow.

This paper has solved some complicated problems such as the parameter estimation computation in the grey linear regression model. In addition, three kinds of representation forms of the model and its relationship between the model and GM(1,1) have also been presented. Finally, its application of the model in a short‐term traffic flow prediction has shown its superiority.

The purpose of this paper is to summarize the advances in grey system theory research and various application achievements in science and engineering. At the same time, it commemorates the 40th anniversary of the birth of grey system theory and the 10th anniversary of Grey Systems–Theory and Application.

Firstly, the innovations of theoretical research in grey system theory were summarized and some of the widely recognized new results are briefly described. By searching and combing the research results of grey system theory in China national knowledge infrastructure (CNKI) database and Web of Science by Institute for Scientific Information (ISI), this paper shows the rapid development trend of grey system theory in the past 40 years, and the successful applications of grey system theory in the fields of social sciences, natural sciences and engineering technologies.

More than 227 thousands literature were found by input 10 phrases such as grey system, grey number and sequence operator etc. in CNKI database. After entering the new century, the number of grey system papers included in CNKI database is increasing rapidly. Since 2008, more than 10 thousands papers have been included per year and more than 15 thousands papers have been included per year since 2014. Grey system method and model are widely used in physics, chemistry, biology and other fields of natural science, as well as transportation, electric power, machinery and other fields of engineering technology, and a large number of valuable results have been achieved.

It can be seen that the grey system theory plays an important role in promoting China’s scientific and technological progress, innovation and development and high-level talent training from tens of thousands of literatures marked with important national science and technology projects and a large number of grey system literatures published by China’s double first-class universities and double first-class discipline construction universities.

Both innovations of theoretical research and practical application play important role in the growth of new theory. The innovations of theoretical research provide methods and tools for practical application, which is conducive to improve application efficiency and broaden application fields. A large number of practical applications needs have become the source of theoretical innovation and the solid background for the birth of theoretical innovation achievements.

This paper aim to take the ship shaft stern bearing as the research object, and studies the influence of journal axial vibration on bearing dynamic characteristics under different misaligned angles and rotation speeds.

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and harmonic excitation method were used to build bearing unstable lubrication model, and the dynamic mesh technology was used in calculation.

The results indicate that journal axial vibration has a significant effect on bearing dynamic characteristics, like maximum oil film pressure, bearing stiffness and damping coefficients, and the effect is positively correlated with journal misaligned angle. The effect of shaft rotation speed and journal axial vibration on bearing dynamics characteristics are independent; they have no coupling. Bearing axial stiffness is mainly affected by the journal axial displacement, bearing axial damping is mainly affected by journal axial velocity and they are positively correlated with the misaligned angle. The influence of rotational speed on bearing axial stiffness and axial damping is not obvious.

This paper establishes the bearing dynamic model by CFD and harmonic excitation method with consideration of cavitation effect and analyzing the influence of journal axial vibration on the dynamic characteristics. The results are benefit to the design of ship propulsion shaft and the selection of stern bearing. Also, they are of great significance to improve the operation stability of the shaft bearing system and the vitality of the ship.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/ILT-11-2022-0337/

This study empirically examines the impact of announcements on supply chain strategic collaboration (SCSC) on companies' shareholder value.

This study analyzes changes in shareholder value of companies listed in China based on data of 208 SCSC announcements. The signaling theory is applied to determine correlation among SCSC announcements and the market. An event study is used to estimate the stock market reaction to SCSC announcements. The common market model estimates stock abnormal returns after the event. The least squares method and regression model calculate the model parameter value.

There is a positive and statistically significant relationship between SCSC announcement and shareholder value. Market reaction to product development collaboration is significantly higher than to technology-sharing collaboration, market collaboration, and other SCSC types. The market reacts more positively to suppliers and companies with greater supply chain control power than to buyers and companies with lower control power. Announcements from the service supply chain can lead to stronger market reactions than those from manufacturing supply chains.

The findings provide a systematic assessment of how SCSC announcements contribute to firms' shareholder value. The result provides a benchmark of value promotion that can be expected from SCSC announcements.

This study fills the research gap that using secondary data to assess changes in companies’ shareholder value caused by SCSC announcements and firstly examines these changes by constructing the signaler–signal–receiver progress based on signaling theory. The research results provide a new reference and inspiration for deeper understanding of the impact mechanism of SCSC. Furthermore, this study contributes to the development of the signaling theory using an empirical study in an emerging market, China.

The purpose of this paper is to attempt to establish the pattern of multi‐objective and multi‐dimensional grey fuzzy forecasting with feedback based on the theories of grey system and fuzzy recognition.

First, according to the given weights, the weighting integrated value of samples were computed. Second, the method of fuzzy recognition with single index was employed to calculate the fuzzy classification of the integrated value. According to the cause analysis, the fuzzy classification of the integrated value is used to compute the weights of indexes. In the same way, repeating the above processes, the weighting integrated value and fuzzy classification with given accuracy are retrieved at the same time. Finally, the authors calculate the correlation coefficient between the weighting integrated values and forecasting objects, according to the principle of maximal relativity, optimizing the weighting integrated value of samples, establishing the fuzzy forecasting pattern, and checking the model's precision. A numeric example is also computed in the last part of the paper.

The results are convincing: not only that the pattern of multi‐objective and multi‐dimensional grey fuzzy forecasting with feedback based is valid, but also the model's applied prediction accuracy is higher, where the test samples' mean forecast accuracy of groundwater dynamic levels is 96.50 percent.

The method exposed in the paper can be used to predict groundwater dynamic levels and even for other similar forecast problems.

The paper succeeds in realising both a prediction pattern and application of predicting groundwater dynamic levels by using the newest developed theories of grey system and fuzzy recognition.

Overconfidence as an important psychological factor can also affect CEO’s cognitive preferences, while there are few studies about the impact of CEO’ overconfidence on the international expansion of companies. This paper aims to fill this gap and further discuss the moderating role of CEO’s overseas experience, CEO duality and ownership.

The authors focus on the Chinese context, collect 2008–2016 data from China's manufacturing industry as sample, use fixed effect model to analyse the effect of CEO overconfidence on international expansion strategy of Chinese firms.

The empirical results show that: CEO overconfidence positively promotes the degree of firm internationalization. CEO foreign experience positively affects the internationalization degree, but can restrain overconfidence thus negatively regulate this impact relationship. When duality is present, both CEO power and managerial discretion are pronounced and they exhibit a stronger effect. Firm’s equity nature will affect the relationship between CEOs' overconfidence and the degree of internationalization. Compared with private enterprises, CEOs in state-owned enterprises have limited power, therefore, this influence relationship is weaker.

This study has emphasized the importance of top executives' psychological characteristics on firm internationalization, which is key application and complement of upper echelons theory and fills the research gap in the literature. In this paper, the authors found the advantages of overconfidence for firms, which helps to understand the complex meaning of overconfidence. The results of moderating effect further explore the application of overconfidence in different context, which has some implications for management practice.

This paper aims to investigate whether managerial overconfidence has an impact on investment inefficiency beyond its influence on the use of internal financing or whether internal financing behaves as a full intermediary.

The study employed three dependent variables, namely business investment scale, overinvestment and underinvestment, and analyzed data from 282 firms across five different industries listed in 11 Middle East/North Africa (MENA) countries between 2013 and 2019 using regression analysis via least square dummy variable (LSDV).

The findings indicate that while internal financing can provide funding for investment opportunities and address capital shortages, it may also result in overinvestment, particularly in companies led by overconfident managers.

Stakeholders, including shareholders and board of directors, should pay attention to the chief executive officer (CEO)'s behavioral aspects such as overconfidence in decision-making while undertaking new investment projects. Additionally, regulators and policymakers in emerging markets like MENA should re-evaluate the corporate governance framework, devise a corporate governance index and promote boardroom gender diversity as it can significantly reduce risk.

This study adds to the limited research on the impact of managerial overconfidence on investment efficiency in the MENA region. By focusing on this region, which has unique economic, political and social characteristics, the study provides new insights into the role of behavioral biases in investment decision-making in emerging markets.

A company’s dividend policy is determined not just by its strategy but also by the qualities of its managers, particularly overconfidence. As a result, the purpose of this study is to explore the impact of CEO overconfidence on dividend policy using the dividend payout ratio and dividend yield ratio.

The study’s sample includes 170 non-financial enterprises listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange between 2011 and 2022. Furthermore, we used corporate governance and firm-specific factors as control variables. The fixed effect model based on the Hausman test result and dynamic system GMM estimation technique was employed in the analysis. Furthermore, the dividend dummy variable and alternative proxies of dividend payments are used to ensure the results are robust.

The findings indicate that CEOs’ overconfidence positively impacts dividend payout and dividend yield ratios. Further analysis reveals that board size and remuneration committee significantly impact dividend payment among corporate governance control variables, while block holding has a negative effect. Among firm-specific control variables, the results suggest that firm size, profitability, and market-to-book ratio are significantly positively associated. In contrast, the coefficient of variation and debt ratio are inversely associated with dividend payments.

Managerial overconfidence benefits shareholders by increasing dividend payouts, but firms may struggle in the long run if they do not have adequate retained earnings to meet capital requirements. Dividends and retained earnings must be balanced to make enough funds available for long-term investment in capital-intensive projects.

Although little previous research has focused on the managerial overconfidence-dividend policy relationship, the authors believe this is the first study to test this relationship generally in emerging markets, particularly Pakistan.

The year 2022 marks the 40th anniversary of the establishment of the grey system theory (GST), which has been widely applied in the engineering field. This paper aims to systematically identify the achievements, hotspots, knowledge structure and emerging trends in this field.

A bibliometrics analysis was conducted on relevant publications retrieved from Web of Science (WoS) using CiteSpace and MapEquation. A statistical analysis of the collected 3,384 papers was completed. Three networks, including a co-occurrence network, cooperation network and co-citation network, were obtained to draw knowledge structure, hotspots and research frontiers.

The top four applied engineering fields are engineering electrical electronics, computer science artificial intelligence, engineering multi-disciplinary and automation control system. In total, 65 countries have engaged in this field, and China has occupied a leading position, with the largest number of articles published and the widest cooperation with other countries. The USA, United Kingdom (UK) and China Taiwan also contribute a lot. The Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics and Professor Liu Sifeng have a core position in the cooperation network. More hotspots appear in the last ten years. Regarding the emerging trends, the combination of theoretical models and practical engineering problems has attracted more attention. Besides, the application of GST in environment protection and the integration of the GST and intelligent algorithm became more popular.

The comprehensive bibliometrics analysis and visualization demonstration were conducted, presenting the interdisciplinary characteristics, major research topics and research frontiers in this field.