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The consideration of the substitution phenomenon in the project portfolio selection problem can improve the robustness of project portfolio selection and help enterprises better achieve their strategic objectives. However, the existence of inter-project risk propagation will have a negative impact on project substitution. This paper proposes a new framework for project portfolio selection and constructs a risk propagation model based on strategic objectives to study the impact of risk propagation on substitution in the project portfolio.

The authors first construct a risk propagation model based on strategic objectives to describe the risk propagation between projects. Then the project substitution phenomenon based on risk propagation is put forward, and the calculation method of substitution loss is given. Finally, a robust project portfolio selection framework based on strategic objectives considering risk propagation is constructed.

The analysis of a case study demonstrates that (1) With the increase of risk intensity, the strategic loss of the same project portfolio increases linearly, and under the same risk intensity, the more projects in the portfolio, the stronger the robustness. (2) Considering risk propagation, the effect of project substitution is significantly weakened, and the strategic loss rate of the project portfolio is significantly increased compared with that of a direct attack.

This study is the first to take the project substitution into account in the project portfolio selection process. Moreover, the authors describe inter-project risk propagation and analyze the impact of risk propagation on the project substitution phenomenon. Finally, the authors extend the evaluation index of robustness. This paper puts forward a new way to solve the problem of project portfolio selection.