Gang Li and Xiaoying Jiao
The purpose of this paper is to provide a short review of tourism forecasting literature and general summary of the trends and developments in tourism forecasting and point out…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to provide a short review of tourism forecasting literature and general summary of the trends and developments in tourism forecasting and point out directions for future research in the next 75 years.
Design/methodology/approach
This is a general literature overview.
Findings
Key trends are identified for next 75 years.
Originality/value
First overview in tourism forecasting that provides foresight on long-term future trends (over next 75 years).
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Xinyang Liu, Anyu Liu, Xiaoying Jiao and Zhen Liu
The purpose of the study is to investigate the impact of implementing anti-dumping duties on imported Australian wine to China in the short- and long-run, respectively.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the study is to investigate the impact of implementing anti-dumping duties on imported Australian wine to China in the short- and long-run, respectively.
Design/methodology/approach
First, the Difference-in-Differences (DID) method is used in this study to evaluate the short-run causal effect of implementing anti-dumping duties on imported Australian wine to China. Second, a Bayesian ensemble method is used to predict 2023–2025 wine exports from Australia to China. The disparity between the forecasts and counterfactual prediction which assumes no anti-dumping duties represents the accumulated impact of the anti-dumping duties in the long run.
Findings
The anti-dumping duties resulted in a significant decline in red and rose, white and sparkling wine exports to China by 92.59%, 99.06% and 90.06%, respectively, in 2021. In the long run, wine exports to China are projected to continue this downward trend, with an average annual growth rate of −21.92%, −38.90% and −9.54% for the three types of wine, respectively. In contrast, the counterfactual prediction indicates an increase of 3.20%, 20.37% and 4.55% for the respective categories. Consequently, the policy intervention is expected to result in a decrease of 96.11%, 93.15% and 84.11% in red and rose, white and sparkling wine exports to China from 2021 to 2025.
Originality/value
The originality of this study lies in the creation of an economic paradigm for assessing policy impacts within the realm of wine economics. Methodologically, it also represents the pioneering application of the DID and Bayesian ensemble forecasting methods within the field of wine economics.
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Meirong Yi, Xiaoying He, Huan Chen and Lifeng Hao
Through practical tests, it has been found that steel balls based on different standards could affect tribological performances of the same lubricant, but unfortunately, past…
Abstract
Purpose
Through practical tests, it has been found that steel balls based on different standards could affect tribological performances of the same lubricant, but unfortunately, past researches in the field have been quite inadequate. The aim of this paper, therefore, is conscientiously to study the problem.
Design/methodology/approach
The anti‐wear properties of four kinds of lubricants were evaluated by four‐ball tester using two kinds of steel balls based on different standards. The reason for different anti‐wear properties of the same lubricant was also discussed using hardness tester and scanning electron microscope with an energy dispersive spectrometer (SEM/EDS).
Findings
It was found that steel balls based on different standards could affect the tribological results for the same lubricant. The reason could lie in the surface chemical composition, surface roughness and hardness of steel balls which originated from the subtle difference of different standards.
Originality/value
The paper shows that, as far as evaluating anti‐wear properties is concerned, steel ball based on AISI Standard Steel No. E‐52100 is a better choice than that based on Chinese standard GB 308.
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Qinghua Zhu, Xiaoying Li and Senlin Zhao
The purpose of this paper is to explore the coordination mechanism of cost sharing for green food production and marketing between a food producer and a supplier who both…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to explore the coordination mechanism of cost sharing for green food production and marketing between a food producer and a supplier who both contribute to the sales of green food.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper first develops demand functions for both a food supplier and a producer, considering their influence on green degree of food and associated consumers’ acceptances. Then, cost-sharing contracts-based game models are proposed. At last, regarding to optimal supply chain profits and green performance, the proposed contracts and the non-coordination situation are compared and tested by a real case.
Findings
When green cost is only shared by one side, the cost-sharing contracts cannot optimally coordinate the food supply chain, but it can improve profits for both the supplier and producer. When consumers’ sensitivity to the green degree of food increases, a mutual cost-sharing contract will bring more profits for both the supplier and producer than those under the non-coordination mode in a decentralized supply chain situation. A real case verifies the conclusions.
Research limitations/implications
The models are in complete information, and the market demand is assumed to be linear to sales price. Mutual cost sharing is only for material processing and food production, which can be extended to include sharing for sales cost. Coordination ideas on the proposed contracts development and solutions for optimal decisions can be applied in the other industries.
Practical implications
The study shows that coordination between a supplier and a producer is needed to improve the food supply chain’s green performance.
Originality/value
This paper first extends the existing profit functions by considering the green efforts of both a supplier and a producer as well as their effects on green degree of products and consumers’ acceptances to the green degree.
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Xinsheng Xu, Jing Lin, Ying Xiao, Jianzhe Yu, Qing Liu and Jie Geng
Product variant design can only be achieved after all its constituent parts have been implemented by variant design. It is necessary to plan the sequence of part variant design…
Abstract
Purpose
Product variant design can only be achieved after all its constituent parts have been implemented by variant design. It is necessary to plan the sequence of part variant design reasonably. The product variant design process involves a large amount of information transfer events at the dimensional level. A reasonable product variant design process needs to make full use of the information transfer characters of parts to decrease the uncertainty of product variant design process. The existing methods of researching the product variant design process mainly focus on resource constraint and activity logic. They are deficient, however, in information transfer resolution and uncertainty management. This paper aims to address these issues.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper identifies the number of dimension transfer paths and the position of dimension locating within a transfer path as being the key factors affecting the information transfer role of dimension. Information transfer utility is proposed to measure the information transfer capability of dimensions and parts. Based on these, a two-stage approach of generating the sequence of part variant design based on information transfer utility is proposed.
Findings
The uncertainty of dimension constraint network is minimal during the product variant design process when parts are implemented by variant design under the sequence generated through a two-stage method based on the information transfer utilities of parts, as does the times of parameter transferring and iteration in dimension constraint network.
Originality/value
Part variant design under the sequence of descending information transferring utilities can decrease the difficulty of implementing product variant design validly and also increase the efficiency. This suggests an innovative method to planning the product variant design process reasonably from the perspective of informatics.
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The purpose of studying the impact of crude oil and natural gas prices on the Vietnamese stock market is to understand the relationship between energy prices and the overall…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of studying the impact of crude oil and natural gas prices on the Vietnamese stock market is to understand the relationship between energy prices and the overall performance of the financial markets. As Vietnam is an energy-dependent country, fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas prices can significantly affect various industries, including manufacturing, inflation, transportation, energy production and economic growth. These sectors are often sensitive to changes in energy costs, which can lead to shifts in corporate profitability and investor sentiment. By analyzing how crude oil and natural gas prices influence the Vietnamese stock market, policymakers and investors can provide deeper insights into the economic risks and opportunities related to energy price volatility. This paper can also provide valuable information for decision-making in sectors such as economic forecasting, risk management and investment strategies.
Design/methodology/approach
Using monthly data from January 2006 to March 2024, data were collected from the Vietnamese stock market and the OPEC organization for oil prices, while data on natural gas were obtained from the EIA. The data were analyzed using vector error correction (VEC) model, impulse response function, variance decomposition test and asymmetric reactions method; the study tries to ascertain the short-term and long-term dynamic relationships between the shocks of the crude oil price and natural gas prices and their effects on the movement of the stock price. In addition, the GARCH model is applied to measure the volatility of crude oil and natural gas prices.
Findings
Crude oil price shocks have a statistically significant impact on most Vietnamese real stock market indices, except for the utility and consumer indices and some energy companies. Conversely, natural gas price shocks do not significantly affect on Vietnamese stock market indices, except for the energy index and some energy companies. Some “important” of both crude oil price and natural gas price shocks tend to depress the stock returns of energy companies. An increase in both crude oil and natural gas volatility can lead to heightened speculation in certain indices, particularly the energy and industrial indices, as well as in some energy companies. This heightened speculation often results in elevated of their stock returns.
Originality/value
This study provides valuable insights into the field of study examining how fluctuations in the prices of oil and gas, particularly during major crisis periods such as global financial crisis, COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian War, affect financial markets.
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Dalia M. Ibrahiem and Rasha Sameh
Achieving the goals of the sustainable development strategy and Egypt’s vision 2030 depends mainly on the existence of sources of funds. And since Egypt faces a great challenge in…
Abstract
Purpose
Achieving the goals of the sustainable development strategy and Egypt’s vision 2030 depends mainly on the existence of sources of funds. And since Egypt faces a great challenge in obtaining finance, then analyzing the drivers of financial development is a vital issue and there is a persistent need to shed light on the key obstacles for it. Thus, this paper aims to empirically assess the impact of natural resources, foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflows, education and clean energy sources on financial development in Egypt using the data of the 1971–2014 period.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses auto-regressive distributed lag and Toda-Yamomoto approaches to fulfill the purpose.
Findings
Empirical results signify that all variables except natural endowments stimulate financial development which can suggest the presence of the natural resources curse in Egypt. Moreover, the feedback effect between financial development and FDI is recognized. Clean energy sources cause financial development and natural endowments. Financial development causes natural endowments and FDI leads to the deployment of more clean energy resources.
Practical implications
Several crucial policy implications are suggested based upon these results as improving the quality and quantity of education and encouraging both domestic and foreign investors by providing several incentives. Moreover, the government has to enhance green finance through financing solar energy projects and other environmentally friendly projects.
Originality/value
It is the first research for Egypt that explores natural resource-financial development nexus using time series analysis according to our information, and two important variables are included in the model which is clean energy sources and FDI. Then, although several studies examined the impact of financial development on clean energy no empirical study before assessed the impact of clean energy on financial development.