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Article
Publication date: 6 January 2023

Cuiwei Mao, Xiaoyi Gou and Bo Zeng

This paper aims to overcome the problem that the single structure of the driving term of the grey prediction model is not adapted to the complexity and diversity of the actual…

178

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to overcome the problem that the single structure of the driving term of the grey prediction model is not adapted to the complexity and diversity of the actual modeling objects, which leads to poor modeling results.

Design/methodology/approach

Firstly, the nonlinear law between the raw data and time point is fully mined by expanding the nonlinear term and the range of order. Secondly, through the synchronous optimization of model structure and parameter, the dynamic adjustment of the model with the change of the modeled object is realized. Finally, the objective optimization of nonlinear driving term and cumulative order of the model is realized by particle swarm optimization PSO algorithm.

Findings

The model can achieve strong compatibility with multiple existing models through parameter transformation. The synchronous optimization of model structure and parameter has a significant improvement over the single optimization method. The new model has a wide range of applications and strong modeling capabilities.

Originality/value

A novel grey prediction model with structure variability and optimizing parameter synchronization is proposed.

Highlights

The highlights of the paper are as follows:

  1. A new grey prediction model with a unified nonlinear structure is proposed.

  2. The new model can be fully compatible with multiple traditional grey models.

  3. The new model solves the defect of poor adaptability of the traditional grey models.

  4. The parameters of the new model are optimized by PSO algorithm.

  5. Cases verify that the new model outperforms other models significantly.

A new grey prediction model with a unified nonlinear structure is proposed.

The new model can be fully compatible with multiple traditional grey models.

The new model solves the defect of poor adaptability of the traditional grey models.

The parameters of the new model are optimized by PSO algorithm.

Cases verify that the new model outperforms other models significantly.

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Article
Publication date: 15 January 2024

Chuanmin Mi, Xiaoyi Gou, Yating Ren, Bo Zeng, Jamshed Khalid and Yuhuan Ma

Accurate prediction of seasonal power consumption trends with impact disturbances provides a scientific basis for the flexible balance of the long timescale power system…

133

Abstract

Purpose

Accurate prediction of seasonal power consumption trends with impact disturbances provides a scientific basis for the flexible balance of the long timescale power system. Consequently, it fosters reasonable scheduling plans, ensuring the safety of the system and improving the economic dispatching efficiency of the power system.

Design/methodology/approach

First, a new seasonal grey buffer operator in the longitudinal and transverse dimensional perspectives is designed. Then, a new seasonal grey modeling approach that integrates the new operator, full real domain fractional order accumulation generation technique, grey prediction modeling tool and fruit fly optimization algorithm is proposed. Moreover, the rationality, scientificity and superiority of the new approach are verified by designing 24 seasonal electricity consumption forecasting approaches, incorporating case study and amalgamating qualitative and quantitative research.

Findings

Compared with other comparative models, the new approach has superior mean absolute percentage error and mean absolute error. Furthermore, the research results show that the new method provides a scientific and effective mathematical method for solving the seasonal trend power consumption forecasting modeling with impact disturbance.

Originality/value

Considering the development trend of longitudinal and transverse dimensions of seasonal data with impact disturbance and the differences in each stage, a new grey buffer operator is constructed, and a new seasonal grey modeling approach with multi-method fusion is proposed to solve the seasonal power consumption forecasting problem.

Highlights

The highlights of the paper are as follows:

  1. A new seasonal grey buffer operator is constructed.

  2. The impact of shock perturbations on seasonal data trends is effectively mitigated.

  3. A novel seasonal grey forecasting approach with multi-method fusion is proposed.

  4. Seasonal electricity consumption is successfully predicted by the novel approach.

  5. The way to adjust China's power system flexibility in the future is analyzed.

A new seasonal grey buffer operator is constructed.

The impact of shock perturbations on seasonal data trends is effectively mitigated.

A novel seasonal grey forecasting approach with multi-method fusion is proposed.

Seasonal electricity consumption is successfully predicted by the novel approach.

The way to adjust China's power system flexibility in the future is analyzed.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 25 April 2019

Xiaoyi He, Liping Li, Xiaojian Liu, Yongsheng Wu, Shujiang Mei and Zhen Zhang

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease in infants and children. HFMD has caused millions of cases and a large epidemic worldwide. A number of studies…

145

Abstract

Purpose

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common infectious disease in infants and children. HFMD has caused millions of cases and a large epidemic worldwide. A number of studies have shown that the incidence of HFMD is closely related to various factors such as meteorological factors, environmental air pollution factors and socio-economic factors. However, there are few studies that systematically consider the impact of various factors on the incidence of HFMD. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used grey correlation analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) method to systematically analyse the impact of meteorological factors, health resource factors, socio-economic factors and environmental air pollution factors on the incidence of HFMD in Shenzhen.

Findings

The incidence of HFMD in Shenzhen was affected by multiple factors. Grey correlation analysis found eight influencing factors which are as follows: volume of industrial waste gas emission; the days of air quality equal to or above grade; the volume of industrial nitrogen oxide emission; precipitation; the mean air temperature; the gross domestic product; the expenditure for medical and health care; and the gross domestic product per capita. PCA found that the gross domestic product, the volume of industrial soot emission, the relative humidity, and the days of air quality equal to or above grade have a higher load value.

Originality/value

This study is the one of the first studies that apply the grey correlation analysis to analyse the influencing factors of HFMD in the English literature, which to some extent fills up the blank in this field.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 9 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 27 January 2025

Yajie Gao, Yaping Chang, Yinghao He and Zhihao Yu

As innovative household products, social home robots have a significant impact on the interactive consumer experience. However, prior research on consumer intentions to use such…

36

Abstract

Purpose

As innovative household products, social home robots have a significant impact on the interactive consumer experience. However, prior research on consumer intentions to use such robots has rarely considered the configuration perspective. The present study examines how consumers balance the key benefits and risks created by these robots and explores how key influential factors jointly influence usage intention from a configuration perspective.

Design/methodology/approach

We adopted a hybrid research design. In Study 1, a thematic analysis was conducted to derive a conceptual framework reflecting the interplay of key factors influencing usage intention. In Study 2, a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) was applied to reveal how these factors jointly shape usage intention.

Findings

Equifinal configurations of antecedent conditions (i.e. emotional and instrumental support beliefs, concerns about informational and relational privacy risks, self-construal and anthropomorphic design) led to usage intention. Additionally, four distinct benefit-risk trade-off patterns emerged across individuals.

Research limitations/implications

This study highlights the need to examine robot adoption in interactive marketing, particularly in the service domain. It has implications in the context of commercializing social home robots, emphasizing the potential of leveraging social home robots to enhance interactive consumer experiences and foster close connections with consumers.

Originality/value

We developed a neoconfigurational model to obtain a comprehensive understanding of social home robot acceptance in domestic settings, highlighting its implications for consumer–robot interactions and advancing research in interactive marketing.

Details

Journal of Research in Interactive Marketing, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-7122

Keywords

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