Ryuichi Shibasaki, Masahiro Abe, Wataru Sato, Naoki Otani, Atsushi Nakagawa and Hitoshi Onodera
This study predicts the growth of Africa's international trade from 2011 to 2040 by accounting for the uncertainties in the continent.
Abstract
Purpose
This study predicts the growth of Africa's international trade from 2011 to 2040 by accounting for the uncertainties in the continent.
Design/methodology/approach
This study applies a scenario planning method (SPM) to develop multiple future scenarios considering uncertainties inherent in African socio-economies related to the success or failure of economic and industrial policies (EIPs) and economic corridor development policies (ECDPs). Subsequently, based on these future scenarios, the growth of African international trade from 2011 to 2040 is predicted using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model.
Findings
The predictions reveal that if the EIPs and the ECDPs are successfully implemented, Africa, as a whole, will experience a significant increase in trade, estimated at US$ 1,905 billion and US$ 1,599 billion for exports and imports, respectively, compared to the scenario in which they fail. However, the effects vary greatly by country or region and industrial sector. The results also show that African intra-regional trade is rapidly expanding and is the second-largest after trade with Europe followed by other continents.
Originality/value
SPM, which allows us to reflect the uncertainties affecting African international trade prediction, is applied to build the future scenarios. The study comprehensively predicts African future international trade by setting a wide range of exogenous variables and parameters (input conditions for the GTAP model) related to EIPs and ECDPs.
Details
Keywords
The purpose of this paper is to identify the barriers to community participation in post-disaster reconstruction in Minamisanriku, Japan.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to identify the barriers to community participation in post-disaster reconstruction in Minamisanriku, Japan.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper utilizes the extended case method. 31 in-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with local residents as well as 15 in-depth, semi-structured interviews with professionals working on reconstruction efforts. Multiple site visits were made to conduct participant observation and ethnographic research. The data from these interviews and fieldwork were triangulated with archival research.
Findings
The results from this research show that at least six major barriers to community participation in post-disaster reconstruction were present in Minamisanriku. These barriers were: predetermined tsunami risk levels, a disaster reconstruction menu, existing patterns of government, construction of seawalls, an existing lack of participation and administrative mergers. These barriers were not a product of the disaster event itself, but rather of the pre-existing conditions in Minamisanriku, and Japan in general.
Originality/value
This study pinpoints the actually existing barriers to the worldwide call for participatory measures and community involvement in post-disaster reconstruction.