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The author critizizes the health policy in the highly developed countries which support a sector controlled by hospitals, pharmaceutics industry and health insurrance companies.

Unter dem Vorsitz von Prof. Dr. Walter Ender aus Oesterreich diskutierten ber 30 Kolleginnen und Kollegen aus sechs Ländern ber die touristische Wettbewerbsfähigkeit von Fernzielen. Dabei kam die Arbeitsgruppe zu folgenden Einsichten:

Since 1984 Iranian banks has been operating under Islamic principles. This paper investigates dynamics of loans and the difficulties that this banking system is facing. During the period of Islamic banking in Iran, banks experienced a significant increase in the supply of loans. Many factors could affect the behaviour of lending activities including rate of return, inflation, and government intervention. In this paper, a statistical model is developed to investigate the behaviour of supply of loans in Iranian banks in terms of the causal relationship between the main factors, which affect the supply of loans. The results indicate that government intervention which aims managing of funds has played a more important role than that of economic factors.

Einleitung Die 1988 stagnierende Nächtigungszahl zusammen mit der seit Jahren konstant sinkenden durchschnittlichen Aufenthaltsdauer der Kurgäste lässt zwei Vermutungen aufkommen:

In contrast to recent forecasting developments, “Old School” forecasting techniques, such as exponential smoothing and the Box–Jenkins methodology, do not attempt to explicitly model or estimate breaks in a time series. Adherents of the “New School” methodology argue that once breaks are well estimated, it is possible to control for regime shifts when forecasting. We compare the forecasts of monthly unemployment rates in 10 OECD countries using various Old School and New School methods. Although each method seems to have drawbacks and no one method dominates the others, the Old School methods often outperform the New School methods for forecasting the unemployment rates.

The scourge of terrorism has situated as one of the major risks and concerns for policy makers and authorities in the Western hemisphere. The attacks to WTC marked not only a first attack in the US soil but the prelude of a set of attacks perpetrated in the European urban metropolises. Over years, the classic literature punctuated on the negative impact of terrorism in the tourist destination. Recently, some voices have questioned this assumption holding that under some conditions the tourist demands recover to the earlier levels before the crisis. This chapter discusses critically not only the differentiation between risks and threats but also the different faces of terrorism. We also propose a model based on three dimensions: terrorism as a risk, terrorism as a threat and terrorism as a worry. As a conceptual model, the resulted hypotheses and ideas should be empirically validated in next layouts.

Nach 1953 ist die Internationale Vereinigung wissen‐schaftlicher Fremdenverkehrsexperten zum zweiten Mal in Wien zum jährlichen Kongress versammelt. Damals nach Kriegsende ging es darum, einem langsam wiedererstarkten Tourismus eine solide wissenschaftliche Basis zu geben. Es waren auch die Tourismuswissenschafter der klassischen Fremdenverkehrsländer Italien, Spanien, Österreich und der Schweiz, welche sich 1949 erstmals in der Schweiz trafen, um diesem Vorhaben eine konkrete Struktur zu geben. Prof. Paul Bernecker, als einer dieser Promotoren — genannt seien hier die andern: Prof. Walter Hunziker (bis 1973 Präsident), Prof. Kurt Krapf (erster Generalsekretär) und Prof. Angelo Mariotti — übernahm es, den Wiener Kongress zu organisieren. Er war dem Thema “Marktforschung und Werbung im Fremdenverkehr” gewidmet, übrigens ein nach wie vor aktuelles Thema, auch wenn die Terminologie heute in Marketing bzw. Marktbearbeitung oder Kommunikationspolitik erweitert wurde.

We thank the Simon Center for Regional Forecasting at the John Cook School of Business at Saint Louis University – especially Jack Strauss, Director of the Simon Center and Ellen Harshman, Dean of the Cook School – for its generosity and hospitality in hosting a conference during the summer of 2006 where many of the chapters appearing in this volume were presented. The conference provided a forum for discussing many important issues relating to forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty, and participants viewed the conference as helping to significantly improve the quality of the research appearing in the chapters of this volume.³ This volume is part of Elsevier's new series, Frontiers of Economics and Globalization, and we also thank Hamid Beladi for his support as an Editor of the series.