David McIlhatton, William McGreal, Paloma Taltavul de la Paz and Alastair Adair
There is a lack of understanding in the literature on the spatial relationships between crime and house price. This paper aims to test the impact of spatial effects in the housing…
Abstract
Purpose
There is a lack of understanding in the literature on the spatial relationships between crime and house price. This paper aims to test the impact of spatial effects in the housing market, how these are related to the incidence of crime and whether effects vary by the type of crime.
Design/methodology/approach
The analysis initially explores univariate and bivariate spatial patterns in crime and house price data for the Belfast Metropolitan Area using Moran’s I and Local Indicator Spatial Association (LISA) models, and secondly uses spatial autoregression models to estimate the role of crime on house prices. A spatially weighted two-stage least-squares model is specified to analyse the joint impact of crime variables. The analysis is cross sectional, based on a panel of data.
Findings
The paper illustrates that the pricing impact of crime is complex and varies by type of crime, property type and location. It is shown that burglary and theft are associated with higher-income neighbourhoods, whereas violence against persons, criminal damage and drugs offences are mainly associated with lower-priced neighbourhoods. Spatial error effects are reduced in models based on specific crime variables.
Originality/value
The originality of this paper is the application of spatial analysis in the study of the impact of crime upon house prices. Criticisms of hedonic price models are based on unexplained error effects; the significance of this paper is the reduction of spatial error effects achievable through the analysis of crime data.
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ALISTAIR ADAIR and STANLEY McGREAL
The adoption of statistical methods of analysis by British valuers has been, at the best, rather piece‐meal. This paper highlights the contrasting application of multiple…
Abstract
The adoption of statistical methods of analysis by British valuers has been, at the best, rather piece‐meal. This paper highlights the contrasting application of multiple regression analysis (MRA) within valuation practice in the USA relative to that in the UK and emphasises the need for suitable databases. Historically the valuer in the UK has lacked access to databases. The analyses presented in this paper indicate that, even if databases exist, factors such as statistical variability, heterogeneity, geographical scale and sample size may influence both the explanatory and predictive powers of the MRA model. Nevertheless the estimation of value from the objectivity of the MRA model can assist the valuer by supporting opinion or highlighting circumstances where re‐appraisal is necessary.
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J.N. Berry, W.G. Deddis and W.S. McGreal
Compares two approaches to waterfront regeneration – theCustom House Docks scheme in Dublin and the Laganside scheme in Belfast.Discusses the background to regeneration…
Abstract
Compares two approaches to waterfront regeneration – the Custom House Docks scheme in Dublin and the Laganside scheme in Belfast. Discusses the background to regeneration initiatives as a means of promoting inner city renewal. Concludes that Custom House Docks has been able to institute development at a reasonable pace whilst Laganside may require the status of Enterprise Zone designation.
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J.N. Berry, W.J. McCluskey, W.S. McGreal and T. Beamish
Looks at mechanisms to encourage the growth of the small industrialsector in Northern Ireland. Evaluates the respective ideas of enterpriseagencies and the private developers�…
Abstract
Looks at mechanisms to encourage the growth of the small industrial sector in Northern Ireland. Evaluates the respective ideas of enterprise agencies and the private developers′ scheme, together with opinions of users (tenants) and developers. Concludes that slow rental growth means that grant assistance is necessary to ensure a moderate level of return to the developer.
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ALASTAIR ADAIR and STANLEY McGREAL
The problem of obtaining suitable comparables has been recognised as the principal weakness in the direct comparison method of valuation. This paper utilising a data‐base derived…
Abstract
The problem of obtaining suitable comparables has been recognised as the principal weakness in the direct comparison method of valuation. This paper utilising a data‐base derived for Northern Ireland highlights the degree of statistical variability that exists in residential property values. It is shown that knowledge of variability can aid the valuer in looking wider for comparables in certain property types while also bringing attention to situations in which spurious comparables are statistically more probable. In conclusion the case is forwarded for a ‘pooled’ data base in which the level of information available for the valuer could be greatly enhanced.
Gives background to the Urban Development Grant (UDG), withparticular reference to Northern Ireland. Considers some examples of theapplication of UDG in central Belfast. Evaluates…
Abstract
Gives background to the Urban Development Grant (UDG), with particular reference to Northern Ireland. Considers some examples of the application of UDG in central Belfast. Evaluates the effect of UDG on the core of Belfast. Concludes that UDG has made significant developments possible in the core of Belfast, but at a high cost to the public sector.
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A.S. Adair, J.N. Berry and W.S. McGreal
Examines fiscal measures as a means of stimulating commercialdevelopment in inner city areas. Shows that the coupling together ofplanning and regeneration issues with financial…
Abstract
Examines fiscal measures as a means of stimulating commercial development in inner city areas. Shows that the coupling together of planning and regeneration issues with financial policy stimulates the demand side by providing incentives to owner‐occupiers, investors and lessees. Analyses taxation profiles to indicate the potential saving available to the different actors and considers short‐term and longer‐term impact on the market.
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James N. Berry and W. Stanley McGreal
Examines the application of taxation breaks in stimulating investment into property development. Examples are drawn from Dublin and Berlin to highlight how accelerated…
Abstract
Examines the application of taxation breaks in stimulating investment into property development. Examples are drawn from Dublin and Berlin to highlight how accelerated depreciation allowances have been utilized in different market sectors. Emphasis is placed on similarities and differences in the regulations regarding use of taxation‐based incentives. Outcomes of the policy are evaluated including the risk of over‐supply of office floorspace in the medium term and the re‐targeting of incentives towards residential development. Argues that the experience drawn from each city provides interesting parallel and contrasting outcomes.
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Stanley McGreal, Jim Berry, Clare McParland and Brian Turner
Regeneration concerns the physical and economic renewal of locations with development and investment in property a fundamental part of the process and product. Considers the case…
Abstract
Regeneration concerns the physical and economic renewal of locations with development and investment in property a fundamental part of the process and product. Considers the case of Dublin, where designated areas, including the dock‐lands, have been stimulated by taxation breaks within a structure‐agency model. These mechanisms are initially reviewed to provide a context in which the property market has been operating. Focuses on the performance of office property in Dublin and compares rental return evidence for the city centre market with that for the International Financial Services Centre, one of the original designated renewal areas in the dock‐lands. Conclusions focus on how taxation breaks can be used to create new office locations and how the regeneration market can become tax‐driven with dual structures existing between urban regeneration areas and the prime market.
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M. McCord, P.T. Davis, M. Haran, S. McGreal and D. McIlhatton
Tobler's law of geography states that things that are close to one another tend to be more alike than things that are far apart. In this regard, the spatial pattern of price…
Abstract
Purpose
Tobler's law of geography states that things that are close to one another tend to be more alike than things that are far apart. In this regard, the spatial pattern of price distribution is defined by the arrangement of individual entities in space and the geographic relationships among them. The purpose of this paper is to provide emerging findings of research analysing the salient factors which impact on the sale price of residential properties using a spatial regression approach.
Design/methodology/approach
The research develops and formulates a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to incorporate residential sales transactions within the Belfast Metropolitan Area over the course of 2010. Transaction data were sourced from the University of Ulster House Price Index survey (2010, Q1‐Q4). The GWR approach was then evaluated relative to a standard hedonic model to determine the spatial heterogeneity of residential property price within the Belfast Metropolitan Area.
Findings
This investigation finds that the GWR technique provides increased accuracy in predicting marginal price estimates, in comparison with traditional hedonic modelling, within the Belfast housing market.
Originality/value
This study is one of only a few investigations of spatial house price variation applying the GWR methodology within the confines of a UK housing market. In this respect it enhances applied based knowledge and understanding of geographically weighted regression.