Andrew E. Baum and Bryan D. MacGregor
Starts from the basic principles of property investment and showsthat the initial yield conceals estimates of a risk premium, expectedincome growth and expected depreciation…
Abstract
Starts from the basic principles of property investment and shows that the initial yield conceals estimates of a risk premium, expected income growth and expected depreciation. Suggests that an explicit valuation procedure which can be used at any level ranging from a single property to the aggregate market may be constructed. Concludes that the surveying profession is under threat from those able to meet the growing demand for such explicit analyses.
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In the 1970s, yields on UK commercial investment property appear to have been influenced principally by the cost of long term capital and the rate of rental growth. Consequently…
Abstract
In the 1970s, yields on UK commercial investment property appear to have been influenced principally by the cost of long term capital and the rate of rental growth. Consequently, yields tended to respond to the economic cycle, falling in times of economic recovery and rising when the economy moved into recession. However, in the 1980s so far, yield trends appear anomalous by comparison. Yields failed to rise on the advent of the recession in 1980–81, despite a sharp rise in the cost of capital, yet rose in 1982 just when the economy began to emerge from recession, and have since continued to rise as economic recovery and rental growth have gathered pace. This paper seeks to explain recent movements in investment property yields and to reconcile these with trends in the 1970s. It concludes that the behaviour of yields in the 1980s can be explained by the dominance of institutional investors in the property market, and by their perception of the changing risk attributes of property (compared with alternative investments) which have resulted from changes taking place in the investment markets and the UK economy.
Margaret Severson, Judy L. Postmus and Marianne Berry
The increasing rate of imprisonment of women in the United States and the over‐representation of women victims of violence in the corrections system confirms that there are…
Abstract
The increasing rate of imprisonment of women in the United States and the over‐representation of women victims of violence in the corrections system confirms that there are long‐term, often substantially debilitating consequences to women victims of intimate partner violence, sexual violence and youth maltreatment and injury, including incarceration. As part of a study funded by the National Institute of Justice, the authors pursued an exploration of the personal risks, resiliencies and life opportunities that make a difference in the lives of women who have ended up incarcerated. The findings of this study about the prevalence and consequences of youth maltreatment and adult victimization and the mitigating factors, which may have had an impact on the life trajectories of adult incarcerated women will be reviewed. Recommendations will be given for preventive and interventive policy and practice measures that stand to reduce the negative consequences of victimization, particularly those that can prevent incarceration.
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This article argues for the introduction of patient‐held health care records for people with learning disabilities. The evidence reviewed demonstrates that people with learning…
Abstract
This article argues for the introduction of patient‐held health care records for people with learning disabilities. The evidence reviewed demonstrates that people with learning disabilities have more health care needs than other adults in society but receive less health care than others. The rationale for implementing hand‐held records is considered from three perspectives: a consumer point of view, an analysis of how personal health profiles can help to overcome existing barriers to health care and the existing evidence. The initial experiences of introducing personal health records are described.
W.D. Fraser, C. Leishman and H. Tarbert
Correlation coefficients measuring the historical relationships of returns on commercial property and both equities and conventional gilts appear to be low. Conversely, the…
Abstract
Correlation coefficients measuring the historical relationships of returns on commercial property and both equities and conventional gilts appear to be low. Conversely, the correlation between gilts and equities appears to be relatively high. This implies that property provides diversification benefits to a mixed asset portfolio dominated by equities and gilts. However, there is some debate as to the reliability of these correlations and property’s diversification benefits. In this paper we use Granger causality tests and cointegration techniques to demonstrate that there is no long‐run relationship between property returns and those of either gilts or equities. This confirms the diversification benefits of including property in a mixed asset portfolio.
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Charalambos Pitros and Yusuf Arayici
The study looks at the characteristics of upswings and downswings for UK housing cycles. Specifically, the purpose of this paper is to empirically analyse cycles in house prices…
Abstract
Purpose
The study looks at the characteristics of upswings and downswings for UK housing cycles. Specifically, the purpose of this paper is to empirically analyse cycles in house prices and housing affordability on the characteristics of persistence, magnitude and severity.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper draws upon the triangular methodology of cycles and utilises housing data from the last three decades.
Findings
From an empirical perspective, the study obtained four main results. First, the graphical trajectory of cycles in house price and housing affordability is highly synchronized. Second, upturns in both cycles tend to be longer than downturns on average. Third, the recent upturn in house prices and housing affordability is characterised by larger duration, magnitude and severity than the earlier case. Fourth, the latest downturn in both cycles is highly synchronised in terms of time occurrence, persistence, magnitude and severity; in addition, in both cases, the latest downturn is considerably smaller than the previous one. The study additionally indicates that on average the length of a complete house price and housing affordability cycle is 19 years on a peak-to-peak basis.
Research limitations/implications
This paper is essentially exploratory and raises a number of questions for further investigation. Future research should, first, arrive at a more nuanced definition of affordability and, second, examine causality. The fact that two phenomena appear to have some significant synchronicity is not an indication that they are interdependent, although logic would suggest they might be.
Originality/value
This is among the few papers that analyses cycles in UK house prices. It is the first study that draws attention to the housing affordability cycle and the first to compare cycles in house prices with cycles in housing affordability.
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One of the curious features in the literature of property valuation is the lack of concern for general issues of valuation. The most obvious deficiency is the absence of serious…
Abstract
One of the curious features in the literature of property valuation is the lack of concern for general issues of valuation. The most obvious deficiency is the absence of serious discussion on risk‐adjusted discount rates, but another important and neglected issue is the analysis of leases as an investment decision from the lessee's viewpoint.
Paul N. Finlay and Steven B. Tyler
Describes the means by which the performance of propertyinvestments can be measured and analysed. Reports on the results of aquestionnaire survey looking into the practice of UK…
Abstract
Describes the means by which the performance of property investments can be measured and analysed. Reports on the results of a questionnaire survey looking into the practice of UK independent property portfolio managers. Suggests that a survey of financial institutions, namely insurance companies and pension funds, would reveal more about the objectives of performance measurement.
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KIM M. LANGFIELD‐SMITH and STUART M. LOCKE
The Brunswik Lens Model is presented as a framework in which to analyse the property appraisal function. Relationships between observable characteristics of real estate…
Abstract
The Brunswik Lens Model is presented as a framework in which to analyse the property appraisal function. Relationships between observable characteristics of real estate, valuer‐predicted appraisals and actual sales price are explored. Attention focuses through the Lens on the development of computer‐assisted valuation models of residential property. It is shown that statistical deftness must be combined with an appreciation of cognitive processes in order to develop an efficient environmentally‐based valuation model.
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Charalambos Pitros and Yusuf Arayici
The purpose of this paper is to provide a decision support model for the early diagnosis of housing bubbles in the UK during the maturity process of the phenomenon.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to provide a decision support model for the early diagnosis of housing bubbles in the UK during the maturity process of the phenomenon.
Design/methodology/approach
The development process of the model is divided into four stages. These stages are driven by the normal distribution theorem coupled with the case study approach. The application of normal distribution theory is allowed through the usage of several parametric tools. The case studies tested in this research include the last two UK housing bubbles, 1986 to 1989 and 2001/2002 to 2007. The central hypothesis of the model is that during housing bubbles, all speculative activities of market participants follow an approximate synchronisation, and therefore, an irrational, synchronous and periodic increase on a wide range of relevant variables must occur to anticipate the bubble component. An empirical application of the model is conducted on UK housing market data over the period of 1983-2011.
Findings
The new approach successfully identifies the well-known UK historical bubble episodes over the period of 1983-2011. The study further determines that for uncovering housing bubbles in the UK, house price changes have the same weight with the debt–burden ratio when their velocity is positive. Finally, the application of this model has led us to conclude that the model’s outputs fluctuate approximately in line with phases of the UK real estate cycle.
Originality/value
This paper proposes a new measure for studying the presence of housing bubbles. This measure is not simply an ex post detection technique but dating algorithms that use data only up to the point of analysis for an on-going bubble assessment, giving an early warning diagnostic that can assist market participants and regulators in market monitoring.