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In many real-life situations, we do not know the exact values of the expected gain corresponding to different possible actions, we only have lower and upper bounds on these gains – i.e., in effect, intervals of possible gain values. The purpose of this study is to describe all possible ways to make decisions under such interval uncertainty.

The authors used both natural invariance and additivity requirements.

The authors demonstrated that natural requirements – invariance or additivity – led to a two-parametric family of possible decision-making strategies.

This is a first description of all reasonable strategies for decision-making under interval uncertainty – strategies that satisfy natural requirements of invariance or additivity.

In real life, we only know the consequences of each possible action with some uncertainty. A typical example is interval uncertainty, when we only know the lower and upper bounds on the expected gain. A usual way to compare such interval-valued alternatives is to use the optimism–pessimism criterion developed by Nobelist Leo Hurwicz. In this approach, a weighted combination of the worst-case and the best-case gains is maximized. There exist several justifications for this criterion; however, some of the assumptions behind these justifications are not 100% convincing. The purpose of this paper is to find a more convincing explanation.

The authors used utility approach to decision-making.

The authors proposed new, hopefully more convincing, justifications for Hurwicz’s approach.

This is a new, more intuitive explanation of Hurwicz’s approach to decision-making under interval uncertainty.

When the probability of each model is known, a natural idea is to select the most probable model. However, in many practical situations, the exact values of these probabilities are not known; only the intervals that contain these values are known. In such situations, a natural idea is to select some probabilities from these intervals and to select a model with the largest selected probabilities. The purpose of this study is to decide how to most adequately select these probabilities.

It is desirable to have a probability-selection method that preserves independence. If, according to the probability intervals, the two events were independent, then the selection of probabilities within the intervals should preserve this independence.

The paper describes all techniques for decision making under interval uncertainty about probabilities that are consistent with independence. It is proved that these techniques form a 1-parametric family, a family that has already been successfully used in such decision problems.

This study provides a theoretical explanation of an empirically successful technique for decision-making under interval uncertainty about probabilities. This explanation is based on the natural idea that the method for selecting probabilities from the corresponding intervals should preserve independence.

In 1951, Kenneth Arrow proved that it is not possible to have a group decision-making procedure that satisfies reasonable requirements like fairness. From the theoretical viewpoint, this is a great result – well-deserving the Nobel Prize that was awarded to Professor Arrow. However, from the practical viewpoint, the question remains – so how should we make group decisions? A usual way to solve this problem is to provide some reasonable heuristic ideas, but the problem is that different seemingly reasonable idea often lead to different group decision – this is known, e.g. for different voting schemes.

In this paper we analyze this problem from the viewpoint of decision theory, the basic theory underlying all our activities – including economic ones.

We show how from the first-principles decision theory, we can extract explicit recommendations for group decision making.

Most of the resulting recommendations have been proposed earlier. The main novelty of this paper is that it provides a unified coherent narrative that leads from the fundamental first principles to practical recommendations.

In many real-life situations ranging from financial to volcanic data, growth is described either by a power law – which is linear in log-log scale or by a quadratic dependence in the log-log scale. The purpose of this paper is to explain this empirical fact.

The authors use natural scale invariance requirements.

In this paper, the authors used natural scale invariance requirement to explain the ubiquity of quadratic log-log dependencies. The authors also explain what to do if quadratic log-log models turn out to be insufficiently accurate. In this case, scale-invariance requirements lead to dependencies which in the log-log scale take cubic, 4th order, etc. form.

To the best of authors’ knowledge, this is the first theoretical explanation of the empirical quadratic log-log dependence.

The current pandemic is difficult to model – and thus difficult to control. In contrast to the previous epidemics, whose dynamics were smooth and well described by the existing models, the statistics of the current pandemic are highly oscillating. The purpose of this paper is to explain these oscillations and to see how this explanation can be used to fight the epidemic.

The authors use an analogy with economic systems.

The authors show that these oscillations can be explained if we take into account the disease’s long incubation period – as a result of which our control measures are determined by outdated data, showing number of infected people two weeks ago. To better control the pandemic, the authors propose to use the experience of economics, where also the effect of different measures can be observed only after some time. In the past, this led to wild oscillations of the economy, with rapid growth periods followed by devastating crises. In time, economists learned how to smooth the cycles and thus to drastically decrease the corresponding negative effects. The authors hope that this experience can help fight the pandemic.

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first explanation of the highly oscillatory nature of this epidemic’s dynamics.

The paper aims to examine the impact of social capital on the size of the shadow economy in the BIRCS countries over the period 1995–2014.

The authors employ the Bayesian linear regression method to uncover the relationship between social capital and the shadow economy. The method applies a normal distribution for the prior probability distribution while the posterior distribution is determined using the Markov chain Monte Carlo technique.

The results indicate that the unemployment rate and tax burden positively affect the size of the shadow economy. By contrast, corruption control and trade openness are negatively associated with the development of this informal sector. Moreover, the paper's primary finding is that social capital represented by social trust and tax morale can hinder the size of the shadow economy.

This study is limited to the case of the BRICS countries for the period 1995–2014. The determinants of the shadow economy in different groups of countries can be heterogeneous. Moreover, social capital is a multidimensional concept that may consist of various components. This difficulty of measuring the social capital calls for further research on the relationship between other dimensions of social capital and the shadow economy.

Many studies investigate the effect of economic factors on the size of the shadow economy. This paper applies a new approach to discover the issue. Notably, the authors use the Bayesian linear regression method to analyze the relationship between social capital and the shadow economy in the BRICS countries.

This paper aims to develop a geometry of moral systems. Existing social choice mechanisms predominantly employ simple structures, such as rankings. A mathematical metric among moral systems allows us to represent complex sets of views in a multidimensional geometry. Such a metric can serve to diagnose structural issues, test existing mechanisms of social choice or engender new mechanisms. It also may be used to replace active social choice mechanisms with information-based passive ones, shifting the operational burden.

Under reasonable assumptions, moral systems correspond to computational black boxes, which can be represented by conditional probability distributions of responses to situations. In the presence of a probability distribution over situations and a metric among responses, codifying our intuition, we can derive a sensible metric among moral systems.

Within the developed framework, the author offers a set of well-behaved candidate metrics that may be employed in real applications. The author also proposes a variety of practical applications to social choice, both diagnostic and generative.

The proffered framework, derived metrics and proposed applications to social choice represent a new paradigm and offer potential improvements and alternatives to existing social choice mechanisms. They also can serve as the staging point for research in a number of directions.

This study aims at investigating the impact of the disclosure and the Shariah governance on the financial performance in MENASA (Middle East, North Africa and Southeast Asia) Islamic banks.

We use the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) regression models to check the interdependence relationship between the disclosure, the Shariah governance and the financial performance of 47 Islamic banks (IBs) from ten countries operating in MENASA region. The sample period is from 2012 to 2019. In these regressions models, Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) are the dependent variables. The disclosure and the Shariah governance indicators are the independent factors. To measure the Shariah governance, we use the three sub-indices, which are the Board of Directors (BOD), the Audit Committee (AC) and the Shariah Supervisory Board (SSB). Size, Leverage and Age of the bank are used as control variables. We also used The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and the three-stage least squares (3SLS) estimations for robustness check.

Result shows a negative relationship between the disclosure and the two performance measures in IBs. Furthermore, as far as the governance indicators are concerned, we found that the BOD and AC, as well as the BOD and SSB, have a positive and significant impact on the ROA and ROE, respectively. This reveals that good governance had a significant association with higher performance in MENASA IBs.

The paper considers both IBs that adopt mandatory as well as voluntary AAOIFI standards and the GLS method to investigate the impact of the AAOIFI disclosure and the Shariah governance on ROA and ROE. Also, it uses the GMM and the 3SLS estimations for robustness check. It is relevant for researchers, policymakers and stakeholders concerned with IBs' performance.

The study aims to determine the long and short-term causal relationships between the variables associated with the adjustment of monetary policy and the stock market in India in the presence of structural breaks.

The study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test and the Error Correction Model to assess long- and short-term causal relationships. The study also used non-frequentist Bayesian inferences for the validity of estimation robustness. The Bai–Perron test is used to identify breakpoint dates for the Indian stock market index, and the Granger Causality test is employed to ascertain the direction of causality.

The F-bounds test reveals cointegration among the variables throughout the examined period. Specifically, the weighted average call money rate (WACR), inflation (WPI), currency exchange rate (EXE), and broad money supply (M3) exhibit statistical significance with precise signs. Furthermore, the study identifies the negative impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020 on the Indian stock market.

Although the study provides significant insights, it is not exempt from constraints. A significant limitation is selecting a relatively limited time period, specifically from April 2008 to September 2023. The limited time frame of this study may restrict the applicability of the results to more comprehensive economic settings, as dynamics between the monetary policy and the stock market can be influenced by multiple factors over varying time periods. Furthermore, the utilisation of the Weighted Average Call Money Rate (WACR) rather than policy rates such as the Repo rate presents an additional constraint as it may not comprehensively account for the impacts of particular policy initiatives, thereby disregarding essential complexities in the connection between monetary policy variables and financial markets.

The findings of the study suggest that investors and portfolio managers should consider economic issues while developing long-term investing plans. Reserve Bank of India should exercise prudence to prevent any discretionary measures that may lead to a rise in interest rates since this adversely affects the stock market. To mitigate risk, investors should closely monitor the adjustment of monetary policy variables.

The study has important social implications, especially regarding the lower levels of financial literacy among investors in India. Considering the complex nature of the study’s emphasis on monetary policy adjustments and their impact on the stock market. Investors face the risk of significant losses due to unexpected adjustments in monetary policy. Many individuals may need help understanding how policy changes impact their investments. Therefore, RBI must consider both price and financial stability when formulating monetary policies. Furthermore, market participants should consider the potential impact of fluctuating monetary policy variables when devising their long-term investment strategies. Given that adjustments in interest rates can markedly affect stock market dynamics, investors must carefully assess the implications of monetary policy decisions on their portfolios.

The study uses dummy variables in the ARDL model to represent structural breaks that emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic (as determined by the Bai–Perron multiple breakpoint test). The study also used the Perron unit root test to find out the stationary of the series in the presence of structural breaks. Additionally, the study also employed Bayesian inferences to affirm the robustness of the estimates.