A. Vararuk, I. Petrounias and V. Kodogiannis
This paper investigates, through the use of data mining techniques, patterns in HIV/AIDS patient data. These patterns can be used for better management of the disease and more…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper investigates, through the use of data mining techniques, patterns in HIV/AIDS patient data. These patterns can be used for better management of the disease and more appropriate targeting of resources.
Design/methodology/approach
A total of 250,000 anonymised records from HIV/AIDS patients in Thailand were imported into a database. IBM's Intelligent Miner was used for clustering and association rule discovery.
Findings
Clustering highlighted groups of patients with common characteristics and also errors in data. Association rules identified associations that were not expected in the data and were different from traditional reporting mechanisms utilised by medical practitioners. It also allowed the identification of symptoms that co‐exist or are precursors of other symptoms.
Originality/value
Identification of symptoms that are precursors of other symptoms can allow the targeting of the former so that the later symptoms can be avoided. This study shows that providing a pragmatic and targeted approach to the management of resources available for HIV/AIDS treatment can provide a much better service, while at the same time reducing the expense of that service. This study can also be used as a means of implementing a quality monitoring system to target available resources.
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To solve the multi‐period portfolio management problem under transactions costs.
Abstract
Purpose
To solve the multi‐period portfolio management problem under transactions costs.
Design/methodology/approach
We apply a recently designed super genetic hybrid algorithm (SuperGHA) – an integrated optimisation system for simultaneous parametric search and non‐linear optimisation – to a recursive portfolio management decision support system (SHAREX). The parametric search machine is implemented as a genetic superstructure, producing tentative parameter vectors that control the ultimate optimisation process.
Findings
SHAREX seems to outperform the buy and hold‐strategy on the Finnish stock market. The potential of a technical portfolio system is best exploitable under favorable market conditions.
Originality/value
A number of robust engines for matrix algebra, mathematical programming and numerical calculus have been integrated with SuperGHA. The engines expand its scope as a general‐purpose algorithm for mathematical programming.
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Mario Domingues Simões, Marcelo Cabus Klotzle, Antonio Carlos Figueiredo Pinto and Leonardo Lima Gomes
The purpose of this study is to ascertain whether nonlinearities could be present in electricity loads observed in subtropical environments, where none or little heating is…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to ascertain whether nonlinearities could be present in electricity loads observed in subtropical environments, where none or little heating is required, and whether threshold autoregressive (TAR)-type regime switching models could be advantageous in the modeling of those loads.
Design/methodology/approach
The actual observed load of a Brazilian regional electricity distributor from January 2013 to August 2012 was modeled using a popularly employed ARMA model for reference, and smooth and non-smooth TAR transition (non-linear) models were used as non-linear regime switching models.
Findings
Evidence of nonlinearities were found in the load series, and evidence was also found on the intrinsic resistance of this type of models to structural breaks in the data. Additionally, to reacting well to asymmetries in the data, these models avoid the use of exogenous variables. Altogether, this could prove to be a definite advantage of the use of such model alternatives.
Research limitations/implications
However, even if the present work may have been limited by the observation frequency of the available data, it appears TAR models appear to be a viable alternative to forecasting short-term electricity loads. Nonetheless, additional research is required to achieve a higher accuracy of forecast data.
Practical implications
If such models can be successfully used, it will be a great advantage for electricity generators, as the computational effort involved in the use of such models is not significantly larger than regular linear ones.
Originality/value
To our knowledge, this type of research has not yet been made with subtropical/tropical electricity load data.
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Kostas Metaxiotis, John Psarras and Emanuel Samouilidis
Companies deal with many decision‐making processes whose impact on the global performance can be very strong. As a consequence, the role of the decision support systems (DSSs…
Abstract
Companies deal with many decision‐making processes whose impact on the global performance can be very strong. As a consequence, the role of the decision support systems (DSSs) within the organization is critical. Considering the imprecise or fuzzy nature of the data in real‐world problems, it becomes obvious that the ability to manage uncertainty turns out to be a crucial issue for a DSS. In this framework, this paper discusses the key role of fuzzy logic (FL) in the DSSs, presents new applications of FL in DSSs in various sectors and identifies new challenges and new directions for further research.
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Ahmed Elragal and Nada El-Gendy
Trajectory is the path a moving object takes in space. To understand the trajectory movement patters, data mining is used. However, pattern analysis needs semantics to be…
Abstract
Purpose
Trajectory is the path a moving object takes in space. To understand the trajectory movement patters, data mining is used. However, pattern analysis needs semantics to be understood. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to enrich trajectories with semantic annotations, such as the name of the location where the trajectory has stopped, so that the paper is able to attain quality decisions.
Design/methodology/approach
An experiment was conducted to explain that the use of raw trajectories alone is not enough for the decision-making process and detailed pattern extraction.
Findings
The findings of the paper indicates that some fundamental patterns and knowledge discovery is only obtainable by understanding the semantics underlying the position of each point.
Research limitations/implications
The unavailability of data are a limitation of the paper, which would limit its generalizability. Additionally, the lack of availability of tools for automatically adding semantics to clusters posed as a limitation of the paper.
Practical implications
The paper encourages governments as well as businesses to analyze movement data using data mining techniques, in light of the surrounding semantics. This will allow, for example, solving traffic congestions, since by understanding the movement patterns, the traffic authority could make decisions in order to avoid such congestions. Moreover, it could also help tourism authorities, at national levels, to know tourist movement patterns and support these patterns with the required logistical support. Additionally, for businesses, mobile operators could dynamically enhance their services, voice and data, by knowing the semantically enriched patterns of movement.
Originality/value
The paper contributes to the already rare literature on trajectory mining, enhanced with semantics. Mainstream literature focusses on either trajectory mining or semantics, therefore the paper claims that the approach is novel and is needed as well. By integrating mining outcomes with semantic annotation, the paper contributes to the body of knowledge and introduces, with lab evidence, the new approach.
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Mehdi Khashei and Fatemeh Chahkoutahi
The purpose of this paper is to propose an extensiveness intelligent hybrid model to short-term load electricity forecast that can simultaneously model the seasonal complicated…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to propose an extensiveness intelligent hybrid model to short-term load electricity forecast that can simultaneously model the seasonal complicated nonlinear uncertain patterns in the data. For this purpose, a fuzzy seasonal version of the multilayer perceptrons (MLP) is developed.
Design/methodology/approach
In this paper, an extended fuzzy seasonal version of classic MLP is proposed using basic concepts of seasonal modeling and fuzzy logic. The fundamental goal behind the proposed model is to improve the modeling comprehensiveness of traditional MLP in such a way that they can simultaneously model seasonal and fuzzy patterns and structures, in addition to the regular nonseasonal and crisp patterns and structures.
Findings
Eventually, the effectiveness and predictive capability of the proposed model are examined and compared with its components and some other models. Empirical results of the electricity load forecasting indicate that the proposed model can achieve more accurate and also lower risk rather than classic MLP and some other fuzzy/nonfuzzy, seasonal nonseasonal, statistical/intelligent models.
Originality/value
One of the most appropriate modeling tools and widely used techniques for electricity load forecasting is artificial neural networks (ANNs). The popularity of such models comes from their unique advantages such as nonlinearity, universally, generality, self-adaptively and so on. However, despite all benefits of these methods, owing to the specific features of electricity markets and also simultaneously existing different patterns and structures in the electrical data sets, they are insufficient to achieve decided forecasts, lonely. The major weaknesses of ANNs for achieving more accurate, low-risk results are seasonality and uncertainty. In this paper, the ability of the modeling seasonal and uncertain patterns has been added to other unique capabilities of traditional MLP in complex nonlinear patterns modeling.