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Article
Publication date: 8 April 2014

V. Duwicquet, E.M. Mouhoud and J. Oudinet

The aim of this paper is to estimate the dynamic of international migration between the different regions of the world for 2030 and to measure the impact of different kind of

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Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to estimate the dynamic of international migration between the different regions of the world for 2030 and to measure the impact of different kind of migration policies on the economic and social evolution.

Design/methodology/approach

The change and migration forecasting are estimated for regions of the world using macroeconomic Cambridge Alphametrics Model.

Findings

The crisis and its aggravation thus clearly favour scenarios of immigration policy along the “zero migration” or “constant migration”. These choices of migration policies reinforce the deflationary process resulting in reduced opportunities for renewed growth in industrial areas and are not offset by the dynamism of growth in emerging countries. Paradoxically, the developed countries which are most durably affected by the crisis are also those that have ageing population and are in high need of skilled and unskilled labor.

Practical implications

Three options are possible: one going along the depressive process by espousing restrictive immigration policies that remain expensive. The second involves a highly selective immigration policy. Under these conditions the demographic revival already appearing would be reinforced by a rejuvenation of the population brought about by a more open immigration policy. Political and institutional factors play a fundamental role in the emergence of this optimistic assumption and the rise of isolationism in Europe and the ghettoization of suburban areas can hinder the application of such a policy of openness to migration. The third scenario, the mass migration scenario, allows letting go of the growth related constraints and getting out of the deflationist spiral. This pro-active approach could cause public opinions to change in line with public interest. This scenario of mass migration has more of a chance to see the light under a growth hypothesis. However, restrictive policies weaken the prospects of sustainable recovery causing a vicious cycle that can only be broken by pro-active policies or by irresistible shocks.

Originality/value

From specific estimations, four immigration regimes have been built that cut across the major regions of the model: the “core skill replacement migration regime” based on selective policies using migration to fill high-skilled labor needs (United Kingdom, West and Northern Europe, Canada, Australia, and USA), “mass immigration and replacement” applies to South Europe, East Asia High Income, and part of West Asia (Gulf countries), “big fast-growing emerging regions of future mass immigration,” notably China, India and “South-South migration” based on forced migration much of it by climate change, which may likely occur in South Asia, part of West Asia, and, most of Africa (without South Africa). Migrations in transit countries (Central America to USA, and East Europe to UK and West Europe) are based on low skilled migrants in labor-intensive sectors.

Details

Foresight, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Available. Content available
Article
Publication date: 8 April 2014

Pascal M Petit and Robert Guttman

1217

Abstract

Details

Foresight, vol. 16 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Available. Open Access. Open Access
Article
Publication date: 30 July 2024

Maria Del Carmen Ramos-Herrera

The purpose of this study is to provide empirical evidence on the impact of deviations from the long-run sustainable real exchange rate (RER) equilibrium on real economic growth…

607

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to provide empirical evidence on the impact of deviations from the long-run sustainable real exchange rate (RER) equilibrium on real economic growth rate applying panel autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) (Pooled Mean Group, Mean Group and Dynamic Fixed Effects estimators) in a dynamic heterogeneous panel setting and panel NARDL for the largest database covering 104 countries during 1995–2022 period developed by Couharde et al. (2017).

Design/methodology/approach

The EQCHANGE database makes available not only the equilibrium RER but also misalignments according to the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach for each country. One of the main objectives is to examine whether undervaluation or overvaluation RER can imply different responses on economic performance trying to differentiate between short and long run effects. Additionally, the authors consider the World Bank (WB)’s income classifications to compare the asymmetries attending to high-income, upper-middle-income, lower-middle-income and low-income levels.

Findings

Applying the panel ARDL technique, the results suggest that the RER misalignments have a negative but not significant effect on the short-run, nevertheless a negative and highly significant impact on real economic growth rate is detected on the long-run. Considering the panel NARDL, the asymmetric relationship between RER misalignment and economic growth rate is supported considering all countries in the long-run (in the short-term is not significant). In the long run is detected that undervaluation can promote economic growth rate, rather than overvaluation which can harm the economic performance. Additionally, the WB and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) income’s classifications have been applied and the long-run symmetry test is strongly rejected regardless of income group.

Originality/value

To the best of the author knowledge, this is the first time the non-linear panel ARDL methodology has been applied for analyzing the impact of deviations from the long-run sustainable RER equilibrium on real economic growth. This allows us to see the asymmetric effect not seen before. The panel ARDL estimation can efficiently performed regardless of the integration level of the variables, additionally, it is consistent even in the presence of endogeneity. Besides, another advantage of this method is that it is possible to reflect not only the short but also the long-run dynamics. Moreover, this analysis offers a comparison between linear panel ARDL and non-linear to compare the advantages from the former. Additionally, this study covers the largest database, in particular, 104 countries during the 1995–2022 period implemented with the Couharde et al. (2017) EQCHANGE database. Finally, it is compared the asymmetries attending to different income classifications.

Details

Applied Economic Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2632-7627

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Article
Publication date: 1 September 2020

Jamal M. Shamieh, Ihab Hanna Sawalha and Hanan M. Madanat

The purpose of this study is to aim at: (1) investigating the vulnerabilities/obstacles that hinder refugees in hosting countries from obtaining quality and adequate education and…

554

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to aim at: (1) investigating the vulnerabilities/obstacles that hinder refugees in hosting countries from obtaining quality and adequate education and (2) proposing a Framework for Action to transform these vulnerabilities into capacities.

Design/methodology/approach

Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment (VCA) was used for the purpose of this research. A survey strategy was adopted and data were collected using semi-structured interviews with refugee families. One hundred and twenty families were interviewed.

Findings

The study identified a number of vulnerabilities; including mainly unavailability of educational facilities; quality of the available education; social challenges and psychological needs. The findings revealed that there was a lack of comprehensive and strategic frameworks for mitigating refugee educational crises.

Practical implications

The lack of adequate and quality education for refugees in host countries is likely to increase illiteracy levels and subsequently trigger humanitarian and natural disasters on the long run. This research emphasizes the importance of developing comprehensive frameworks for quality and adequate refugee education.

Originality/value

To the author's knowledge, and after an extensive review of the existing literature, this is the first study to employ VCA to investigate the extent of the current refugee educational crisis in Jordan. VCA is more commonly used in the context of natural and environmental disasters threatening societies. Relevant authorities need to be aware of the significance of refugee education at individual, communal and national levels, as well as the significance of education to refugee well-being.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

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