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This paper aims to investigate the relationship between microfinance institutions (MFIs) governance and performance.

Using a sample of 215 MFIs from six South Asian countries over the period from 2005 to 2009, the authors examine the effect of chief executive officer (CEO) duality, board size, female CEO, urban market coverage, bank regulation and lending type on financial and social performance of MFIs.

The findings provide evidence that, on the one hand, empowered CEO, large board size and individual lending improve the MFI financial performance and, on another hand, bank regulation and serving in the urban market have a significant association with MFIs’ social performance. In an additional analysis, the authors also test this relationship before, during and after the financial crisis of 2007. During crisis period, MFIs’ individual lending reduces the operational cost and bank regulation increases the average loan size in South Asian MFIs.

Those studies that are presented in the literature review conclude their result on the bases of global, European, East African and specific to some countries sample. There is no study presented in the whole literature on South Asian sample, in which all countries really face the problem of poverty.

Heuristics are a less complex and more understandable way to a more straightforward, astute and brisk basic decision-making strategy. The purpose of this study is the development of a rule of thumb called the “Crocodile rule” based on downside risk.

The crocodile rule is developed and tested in two steps by using data in the form of stock portfolios of the Pakistan Stock Exchange from January 2000 to November 2017. In the first phase of the study, researchers have forecasted the probabilities, while in the second phase, the researchers have used these probabilities to test the crocodile rule.

The findings show the acceptance of the null hypothesis, forecasting error for all categories of stocks for the first phase. The results also show that the minimum recovery chance is 58%, and the maximum recovery chance is 81% with an overall average of 69% chance of recovery. All recovery probabilities are above 50% for all portfolios; this is particularly impressive for a volatile market like Pakistan.

The study also proposes another performance measure such as “value-at-risk” and compare it with present results to yield better outcomes. Furthermore, other categories of stock like profitability and growth can be tested as well.

The practical application of this rule is a choice between a “Buy-and-hold” strategy and showing myopic behavior as another extreme.

This pioneering research focuses on the development of the “Crocodile rule” by using the lower partial moments as a proxy of downside risk. This research adds value to the existing literature on performance measures. Furthermore, it also highlights and indicates which strategy should be used by the investors in case of falling trends in the market.